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Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China

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Abstract

Landslide is a common geological hazard in reservoir areas and may cause great damage to local residents’ life and property. It is widely accepted that rainfall and periodic variation of water level are the two main factors triggering reservoir landslides. In this study, the Bazimen landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was back-analyzed as a case study. Based on the statistical features of the last 3-year monitored data and field instrumentations, the landslide susceptibility in an annual cycle and four representative periods was investigated via the deterministic and probabilistic analysis, respectively. The results indicate that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level plays a pivotal role in inducing slope failures, for the minimum stability coefficient occurs at the rapid decline period of water level. The probabilistic analysis results reveal that the initial sliding surface is the most important area influencing the occurrence of landslide, compared with other parts in the landslide. The seepage calculations from probabilistic analysis imply that rainfall is a relatively inferior factor affecting slope stability. This study aims to provide preliminary guidance on risk management and early warning in the TGR area.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing, China (Nos. cstc2018jcyjAX0632 and cstc2019jcyj-bshX0043), the High-end Foreign Expert Introduction program (No. G20190022002), and Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Disaster Prevention & Control for Banks and Structures in Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Nos. SXAPGC18ZD01 and SXAPGC18YB03). The financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The monitored data and historical records used in this study is from the Chinese National Field Scientific Observation Station of Landslide in The Yangtze Three Gorges.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China

    Wengang Zhang, Libin Tang, Hongrui Li & Lin Wang

  2. Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China

    Wengang Zhang

  3. National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir Areas, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China

    Wengang Zhang

  4. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing, 404100, China

    Longfei Cheng, Tingqiang Zhou & Xiang Chen

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  1. Wengang Zhang
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  2. Libin Tang
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  4. Lin Wang
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Correspondence to Lin Wang.

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Zhang, W., Tang, L., Li, H. et al. Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China. Front. Struct. Civ. Eng. 14, 1247–1261 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-020-0655-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-020-0655-y

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