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Bottom–up assessment of potentials and costs of CO2 emission mitigation in the buildings sector: insights into the missing elements

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Abstract

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has calculated and shown that, currently, the buildings sector has the largest potential for low-cost carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation in the short to medium term from application of technological options among the sectors examined, based on bottom–up studies. The potential estimates, however, were derived with no regard to indirect costs of CO2 mitigation, associated benefits, and non-technological options; these factors might change the magnitude of the potential and the costs associated with its implementation. The question emerges how accurate the indicators of the economic potential are according to the current IPCC method and how much they might change if all factors mentioned were taken into account. While research results are presently not sufficient to fully answer this question and quantitative analyses of non-technological options, transaction costs associated with barriers, and non-energy benefits are scarce and fragmented, this paper makes a first attempt to assess the presently available literature in the field. The paper concludes that the ballpark is right for the figures reporting the cost-effective potentials in the buildings sector; however, these assessments indeed need to be corrected by incurred transaction costs and co-benefits relevant for the particular assessment, as well as the potential of non-technological options. The paper also outlines a research agenda in the area so that a possible next Assessment Report of the IPCC can derive a more accurate estimate of the bottom–up potential of CO2 mitigation.

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Notes

  1. At the same time, a chief characteristic of this sector is that there is a broad spectrum of energy service needs in buildings, each satisfied by a large number of technologies, and for each technology, there is a wide array of mitigation options.

  2. Costing non-technological options is difficult; therefore, this will only be possible if more evidence is collected on the specific costs of certain behavioral, lifestyle or other non-technological mitigation measures.

  3. Or hybrid models based on bottom–up analysis with specific elements of top–down approach.

  4. The baseline CO2 emission projections were calculated on the basis of the reviewed studies and are the composite of business-as-usual and frozen efficiency baseline.

  5. The resources and time available for the present study only allowed access to first-hand information that was available in local libraries or through the internet. No snowball search or personal requests have been made to map further studies.

  6. The term “real-time pricing” refers to installation of “smart” electricity meters as part of a “green building” initiative to track basic electricity use.

  7. That is, the costs were under −100 USD/tCO2 saved. Cost-effectiveness was considered from a societal perspective, thus energy costs were deducted as suggested by Koomey and Krause (1989), Koomey et al. (1990), and Atkinson et al. (1991).

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Acknowledgment

The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to Ms. Maria Sharmina of Central European University who provided excellent ideas and research support for the present paper. The authors are also very thankful to Mr. Felix Bubenheimer for editing and proof-reading the text.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP), Central European University, Budapest, Hungary

    Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Aleksandra Novikova & Benigna Boza-Kiss

  2. Environment, Housing and Land Management Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Switzerland

    Sonja Köppel

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  1. Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
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  2. Aleksandra Novikova
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Correspondence to Diana Ürge-Vorsatz.

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Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Novikova, A., Köppel, S. et al. Bottom–up assessment of potentials and costs of CO2 emission mitigation in the buildings sector: insights into the missing elements. Energy Efficiency 2, 293–316 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-009-9051-0

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