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Driving transit retention to renaissance: trends in Montreal commute public transport mode share and factors by age group and birth cohort

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Abstract

Public transport mode share for young people appears to be growing in the 21st Century, and higher than previous mode shares appear likely to continue, increasing overall demand as today’s youths age into traditionally lower public transport-use lifecycle stages. This paper tests and supports the latter claim through application of a number of binomial logistic regression models, controlling for socioeconomic, household composition, location and service level factors. Analysis draws from over 10,000 home-based work and school commute trips from each of Montreal’s 1998, 2003, and 2008 origin-destination surveys. One large factor in Montreal’s increased youth public transport usage has been the 1997 introduction of graduated driver’s licensing, which appears to have a substantial lasting licensure damper effect only on men. Controlling for effects of variables other than survey period and age group or birth cohort, recent young age groups show higher public transport use than did their predecessors. Moreover, a plateauing of public transport mode share within birth cohorts is seen to begin earlier in life than expected. This suggests not only continuance of higher than previous transit use, but also further potential for mode share improvements if challenges from lifecycle changes, such as school-to-work transition, can be identified and addressed.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to Daniel Bergeron and AMT for access to Montreal Origin-Destination survey data analyzed in this paper (2003 and 2008), to Mr. Pierre Tremblay from the Quebec Ministry of transport for providing the 1998 Montreal Origin-Destination survey, and to Sébastien Gagné from STM for bus schedule access. We would also like to acknowledge the members and affiliated researchers of TRAM research group, especially Ehab Diab and Vincent Chakour for technical advice and Naveen Eluru for helpful feedback.

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  1. School of Urban Planning, McGill University, Suite 400, 815 Sherbrooke St. W., Montréal, H3A 2K6, Canada

    Michael Grimsrud & Ahmed El-Geneidy

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  1. Michael Grimsrud
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  2. Ahmed El-Geneidy
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Correspondence to Ahmed El-Geneidy.

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Grimsrud, M., El-Geneidy, A. Driving transit retention to renaissance: trends in Montreal commute public transport mode share and factors by age group and birth cohort. Public Transp 5, 219–241 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12469-013-0075-7

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