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Multivariate geostatistical methods of mean annual and seasonal rainfall in southwest Saudi Arabia

الطرق الجيوإحصائية للمتغيرات المتعددة للمتوسط السنوي والفصلي للأمطار في جنوب غرب المملكة العربية االسعودية

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Abstract

A multivariate geostatistics (cokriging) is used for regional analysis and prediction of rainfall throughout the southwest region of Saudi Arabia. Elevation is intruded as a covariant factor in order to bring topographic influences into the methodology. Sixty-three representative weather stations are selected for a 21-year period covering different microclimate conditions. Results show that on an annual basis, there is no significant change using elevation. On the seasonal basis, the cokriging method gave more information about rainfall occurrence values, its accuracy related to the degree of correlation between elevation and rainfall by season. The prediction of spring and winter rainfall was improved owing to the importance of orographic processes, while the summer season was not affected within its monsoon climatology. In addition, fall season shows inverse and weak correlation of elevation with rainfall. Cross-validation and cokriging variances are also used for more accuracy of rainfall regional estimation. Moreover, even though the correlation is not significant, the isohyet values of cokriged estimates provided more information on rainfall changes with elevation. Finally, adding more secondary variables in addition to elevation could improve the accuracy of cokriging estimates.

Abstract

استخدمت الطرق الجيوإحصائية للمتغيرات المتعددة للتحليل والتنبؤ بالأمطار السنوية والفصلية في جنوب غرب المملكة العربية االسعودية، حيث أضيف متغير الإرتفاع كعامل مساعد لتوضيح تأثيره وعلاقته بالتغير في المناخ. استخدمت في هذه الدراسة تسجيلات لفترة زمنية بلغت 21 عاما لعدد 63 محطة مناخية ممثلة تمثيلا جيدا للمنطقة. أوضحت تلك الدراسة أن التنبؤ الإقليمي لمتوسط المطر السنوي لا تتأثر قيمته بالإرتفاع نتيجة لوقوع المنطقة تحت تأثير ظروف مناخية متعددة. بينما كان هناك تأثير واضح للإرتفاع على التنبؤات الإقليمية للأمطار الفصلية وذلك نتيجة للإرتباط القوي بين الأمطار والإرتفاع. خاصة عند تحليل الأمطار لفصلي الربيع والشتاء حيث لوحظ تأثر الأمطار بالإرتفاع وعلى العكس من ذلك فإن الأمطار الموسمية في فصل الصيف لا تتأثر بالإرتفاع. أما أمطار فصل الخريف فهي قليلة وذات علاقة عكسية مع الارتفاع حيث لوحظ أنها تقع في فترة انتقالية بين أمطار البحر المتوسط والمحيط الأطلسي وبين أمطار المحيط الهندي الموسمية. لقد أجريت بعض الاختبارات الاحصائية المتباينة لزيادة الدقة في إختيار النموذج الجيواحصائي المناسب. وأخيرا يمكن إضافة بعض المتغيرات الأخرى مثل الحرارة والضغط الجوي وسرعة الرياح للمساعدة في التنبؤات المطرية على المستوى السنوي والشهري أيضا.

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Acknowledgment

The authors express their appreciation to King Abdulaziz University and Ministry of Water and Electricity in Saudi Arabia for providing necessary facilities during the course of this study. The comments of the reviewers are gratefully acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydrogeology Department, King Abdulaziz University, P. O. Box 80206, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia

    Ali M. Subyani

  2. Geology Department, King Saud University, P. O. Box 2455, Riyadh, 11451, Saudi Arabia

    Abdulrahman M. Al-Dakheel

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  1. Ali M. Subyani
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  2. Abdulrahman M. Al-Dakheel
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Correspondence to Ali M. Subyani.

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Subyani, A.M., Al-Dakheel, A.M. Multivariate geostatistical methods of mean annual and seasonal rainfall in southwest Saudi Arabia. Arab J Geosci 2, 19–27 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-008-0015-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-008-0015-z

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