Framework for probabilistic assessment of landslide: a case study of El Berrinche

Slope failure or landslide is a complex geological/geotechnical problem that involves much uncertainty. In this work, a framework for probabilistic assessment of landslide is presented with a focus on the El Berrinche landslide, Honduras. One unique feature of this case study involving the El Berrinche landslide is that the stability analysis has to be carried out with limited data. Another challenge in this study is to assess possible remedial measures in a way that can easily be communicated to the government and the public. A reliability-based framework for a probabilistic assessment is proposed. With this approach, different levels of risk for landslide are assessed and the associated costs are estimated; and all information is integrated into the decision-making process for choosing a remedial action.