Using simulated hydrologic response to revisit the 1973 Lerida Court landslide

Hydrologically driven mass wasting in the form of landslides on steep slopes is a worldwide occurrence. High-profile events in, for example, Brazil, Chile, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela during the last three decades all clearly illustrate, based upon significant losses of life and property, that hydrologically driven slope instability in developed (urban) areas can be a major geologic/environmental hazard. The focus of this study is the 1973 hydrologically driven Lerida Court landslide in Portola Valley, CA, USA. Physics-based hydrologic-response simulation, with the comprehensive Integrated Hydrology Model, was employed to forensically estimate the spatiotemporal pore pressure distributions for the Lerida Court site. Slope stability, driven by the simulated pore pressure dynamics, was estimated for the Lerida Court site with the infinite slope/Factor of Safety approach. The pore pressure dynamics for the Lerida Court site were reasonably captured by the hydrologic-response simulation. The estimated time of slope failure for the Lerida Court site compares well with field observations. A recommendation is made that hydrologically driven slope stability estimates including variably saturated subsurface flow be standard protocol for development sites in steep urban settings.