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Erschienen in: European Actuarial Journal 2/2011

01.07.2011 | Original Research Paper

A user-friendly approach to stochastic mortality modelling

verfasst von: Helena Aro, Teemu Pennanen

Erschienen in: European Actuarial Journal | Sonderheft 2/2011

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Abstract

This paper proposes a general approach to stochastic mortality modelling. The logit transforms of annual survival probabilities are modelled by a linear combination of user-specified basis function of age. The model is easy to calibrate using the maximum likelihood method. The flexible construction and tangible interpretation of the underlying risk factors allows for an easy incorporation of population-specific characteristics and user views into the model. We fit two versions of the model into Finnish adult (18–100 years) population and mortality data, and present simulations for the future development of life spans.

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Fußnoten
1
University of California, Berkeley (USA) and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany); http://​www.​mortality.​org.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
A user-friendly approach to stochastic mortality modelling
verfasst von
Helena Aro
Teemu Pennanen
Publikationsdatum
01.07.2011
Verlag
Springer-Verlag
Erschienen in
European Actuarial Journal / Ausgabe Sonderheft 2/2011
Print ISSN: 2190-9733
Elektronische ISSN: 2190-9741
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-011-0030-4

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Original Research Paper

Select birth cohorts