Abstract
In this study, projection of droughts was performed using monthly precipitation and temperature data in the Balochistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan. Rainfall is the main source of water in the study area. The Reconnaissance Drought Index was used to explore drought events from the selected sites of the regions. The index-flood procedure was used to perform the drought analysis in the study area. Two statistical methods were used to select Generalized Pareto distribution as the most acceptable distribution for drought risk assessment. The distribution was estimated through the L-moments approach for both regions. Three problems were addressed in this study. Regional analysis was performed for regional quantiles covering a large area and on-site analysis for each site’s drought projections. The Monte Carlo simulations procedure was utilized for reliability assessment of estimated quantiles that proved likeness at lower return periods and uncertainty at higher return periods. Lastly, quadratic regression was performed between drought means and site characteristics for drought quantiles at ungauged sites. According to the results, there are chances of more drought in the future if the recent climatic conditions continue in the study area. The study results will help stakeholders, government, and water resource managers in preparing plans about drought and water availability in the area.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agnew CT (2000) Using the SPI to identify drought. Drought Network News 12:6–12
Adnan S, Ullah K, Gao S, Khosa AH, Wang Z (2017) Shifting of agro-climatic zones, their drought vulnerability, and precipitation and temperature trends in Pakistan. Int J Climatol 37:529–543
Amrit K, Pandey RP, Mishra SK (2018) Characteristics of meteorological droughts in northwestern India. Nat Hazards 94(2):561–582
Angelidis P, Maris F, Kotsovinos N, Hrissanthou V (2012) Computation of drought index SPI with alternative distribution functions. Water Resour Manag 26:2453–2473
Ashraf M, Routray JK (2015) Spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation of drought in Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 77:229–254
Cunnane C (1988) Methods and merits of regional flood frequency analysis. J Hydrol 100:269–290
Dai C, Qin XS, Lu WT, Zang HK (2020) A multimodel assessment of drought characteristics and risks over the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin, China, under climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 141:601–613. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03236-x
Das J, Jha S, Goyal MK (2020) Non-stationary and copula-based approach to assess the drought characteristics encompassing climate indices over the Himalayan states in India. J Hydrol 580:124356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124356
Eslamian S, Eslamian FA (eds) (2017) Handbook of drought and water scarcity: environmental impacts and analysis of drought and water scarcity. CRC Press, New York
Fawad M, Ahmad I, Nadeem FA, Yan T, Abbas A (2018) Estimation of wind speed using regional frequency analysis based on linear-moments. Int J Climatol 38:4431–4444
Goyal MK, Gupta V (2014) Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in northeast region of India using fuzzy cluster analysis. Water Resour Manag 28:4491–4511
Jamro S, Dars GH, Ansari K, Krakauer NY (2019) Spatio-temporal variability of drought in Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Appl Sci 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9214588
Kaluba P, Verbist KMJ, Cornelis WM, Van Ranst E (2017) Spatial mapping of drought in Zambia using regional frequency analysis. Hydrol Sci J 62:1825–1839
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) Changes in extreme precipitation in Texas. J Geophys Res Atmos doi 115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013398
Saf B (2010) Assessment of the effects of discordant sites on regional flood frequency analysis. J Hydrol 380:362–375
She D, Xia J, Zhang Y, Shan L (2016) Regional frequency analysis of extreme dry spells during rainy season in the Wei River basin. China Advances in Meteorology 2016:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/6427568
Smith A, Sampson C, Bates P (2015) Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale. Water Resour Res 51:539–553. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015814
Ganguli P, Reddy MJ (2014) Evaluation of trends and multivariate frequency analysis of droughts in three meteorological subdivisions of western India. Int J Climatol 34:911–928
Ghosh S, Srinivasan K (2016) Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristics and regional frequency of droughts in the southern peninsula of India. Water Resour Manag 30:3879–3898
Goyal MK, Sharma A (2016) A fuzzy c-means approach regionalization for analysis of meteorological drought homogeneous regions in western India. Nat Hazards 84:1831–1847
Hailegeorgis TT, Alfredsen K (2017) Regional flood frequency analysis and prediction in ungauged basins including estimation of major uncertainties for mid-Norway. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 9:104–126
Hosking JRM (1990) L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. J Roy Stat Soc 52:105–124
Hosking JR, Wallis JR (1993) Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Resour Res 29:271–281
Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1997) Regional frequency analysis: an approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, UK
Hussain Z (2011) Application of the regional flood frequency analysis to the upper and lower basins of the Indus River, Pakistan. Water Resour Manag 25:2797–2822
Khan MSR, Hussain Z, AHMAD I (2019) A comparison of quadratic regression and artificial neural networks for the estimation of quantiles at ungauged sites in regional frequency analysis. Appl Ecol Environ Res 17:6937–6959
Liu X, Wang S, Zhou Y, Wang F, Li W, Liu W (2015) Regionalization and variation of drought standardized precipitation index (1961–2013). Adv Meteorol 2015:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/950262
Mortuza MR, Moges E, Demissie Y, Li HY (2019) Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis. Theor Appl Climatol 135:855–871
Mustafa A, Rahman G (2018) Assessing the spatio-temporal variability of meteorological drought in Jordan. Earth Systems and Environment 2:247–264
Naz F, Dars GH, Ansari K, Jamro S, Krakauer NY (2020) Drought trends in Balochistan. Water. 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020470
PWP (2011). History of drought in Pakistan-in detail. Pakistan Weather Portal. Accessed 15 July 2019
Quesada-Montano B, Wetterhall F, Westerberg IK, Hidalgo HG, Halldin S (2018) Characterizing droughts in Central America with uncertain hydro-meteorological data. Theor Appl Climatol 137:2125–2138
Roth M, Jongbloed G, Buishand TA (2016) Threshold selection for regional peaks-over-threshold data. J Appl Stat 43:1291–1309
Santos JF, Portela MM, Pulido-Calvo I (2011) Regional frequency analysis of droughts in Portugal. Water Resour Manag 25:3537–3558
Shiau JT, Modarres R (2009) Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran. Meteorol Appl 16:481–489
Stedinger JR, Vogel R, Foufoula-Georgiou E (1993) Frequency analysis of extreme events. In: Maidment DR (ed) Handbook of hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York (Chap. 18)
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94
Topçu E, Seçkin N (2015) Drought analysis of the Seyhan Basin by using standardized precipitation index (SPI) and L-moments. J Agric Sci 22:196–215
Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Tigkas D, Vangelis H (2007) Assessing the areal extent of drought. Water resources management: new approaches and technologies, European water resources association, Chania, Crete -Greece, 1416
Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2005) Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. European Water 9(10):3–11
Ullah H, Akbar M, Khan F (2020a) Construction of homogeneous climatic regions by combining cluster analysis and L-moment approach on the basis of reconnaissance drought index for Pakistan. Int J Climatol 40(1):324–341. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6214
Ullah H, Akbar M, Khan F (2020b) Droughts’ projections in homogeneous climatic regions using standardized precipitation index in Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 140:787–803. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03109-3
United Nations development Programme (UNDP) (2016) Water Security in Pakistan: Issues and Challenges, DEVELOPMENT ADVOCATE PAKISTAN, Volume 3, Issue 4
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23:1696–1718
Volpi E, Fiori A, Grimaldi S, Lombardo F, Koutsoyiannis D (2015) One hundred years of return period: strengths and limitations. Water Resour Res 51:8570–8585
Wallis JR, Matalas NC, Slack JR (1974) Just a moment! Water Resour Res 102:211–221
Yevjevich VM (1967) An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrology papers (Colorado State University); no. 23
Zaman MA, Rahman A, Haddad K (2012) Regional flood frequency analysis in arid regions: a case study for Australia. J Hydrol 475:74–83
Zhang Q, Qi T, Singh VP, Chen YD, Xiao M (2015) Regional frequency analysis of droughts in China: a multivariate perspective. Water Resour Manag 29:1767–1787
Acknowledgments
This research work is part of the first author’s Ph.D. dissertation. I am thankful to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for providing the climate data of precipitation and temperature of the study area. I am highly thankful to Dr. Firdos Khan, Assistant Professor of National University of Science and Technology (NUST) Islamabad, Pakistan, for his sincere help at different stages and in preparing the data to remove some of the irregularities. I am also grateful to Professor Sajid Farooqi and Dr. Nazam for helping in computer work.
Availability of Data and Materials
The datasets analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on responsible request.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Both authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Hamd Ullah and Muhammad Akbar. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Hamd Ullah and second author commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ullah, H., Akbar, M. Drought Risk Analysis for Water Assessment at Gauged and Ungauged Sites in the Low Rainfall Regions of Pakistan. Environ. Process. 8, 139–162 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-020-00478-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-020-00478-9