Bi-logistic growth

https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(94)90042-6Get rights and content

Abstract

The S-shaped logistic growth model has been extensively studied and applied to a wide range of biological and socio-technical systems. A model, the Bi-logistic, is presented for the analysis of systems that experience two phases of logistic growth, either overlapping or sequentially. A nonlinear least-squares algorithm is described that provides Bi-logistic parameter estimates from time-series growth data. Model sensitivity and robustness are discussed in relation to error structure in the data. A taxonomy and some examples of systems that exhibit Bi-logistic growth are presented. The Bi-logistic model is shown to be superior to the simple logistic model for representing many growth processes.

References (18)

  • P. Young

    Technological Growth Curves: A Competition of Forecasting Models

    Technological Forecasting and Social Change

    (1993)
  • J.C. Fisher et al.

    A Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change

    Technological Forecasting and Social Change

    (1971)
  • S. Kingsland

    The Refractory Model: The Logistic Curve and the History of Population Ecology

    The Quarterly Review of Biology

    (1982)
  • C. Marchetti

    Branching Out into the Universe

  • A. Grübler

    The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures

    (1990)
  • R.M. Oliver

    Saturation Models: A Brief Survey and Critique

    Journal of Forecasting (Special Issue on Predicting Saturation and Logistic Growth)

    (1988)
  • R. Stone

    Sigmoids

    Bulletin in Applied Statistics

    (1980)
  • N. Nakićenović

    U.S. Transport Infrastructures

  • H.S. Reed et al.

    The Growth of an Annual Plant Helianthus

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA)

    (1919)
There are more references available in the full text version of this article.

Cited by (166)

  • The Lee–Carter method and probabilistic population forecasts

    2023, International Journal of Forecasting
  • Updating the Open Innovation Concept Based on Ecosystem Approach: Regional Aspects

    2022, Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity
  • Parameter identification for multiperiodic functions

    2021, Technological Forecasting and Social Change
  • Coronavirus lockdown and virus suppression: An international analysis

    2021, Technological Forecasting and Social Change
    Citation Excerpt :

    Since the points of inflection occurred in April and early May, many European countries started to ease national lockdown at the end of May and June 2020. Recent work by Melnick and Ioannidis (2020), Gros (2020) and Meunier (2020) have debated over the importance of lockdown in curbing the threat of the coronavirus. As such we investigate three categories of lockdown on an international scale to assess their effectiveness against the spread of the virus.

View all citing articles on Scopus

Perrin Meyer is a research assistant for the Program for the Human Environment at The Rockefeller University.

View full text