Coastal geomorphology through the looking glass

Abstract

Coastal geomorphology will gain future prominence as environmentally sound coastal zone management strategies, requiring scientific information, begin to supplant engineered shoreline stabilization schemes for amelioration of coastal hazards. We anticipate substantial change and progress over the next two decades, but we do not predict revolutionary advances in theoretical understanding of coastal geomorphic systems. Paradigm shifts will not occur; knowledge will advance incrementally.

We offer predictions for specific coastal systems delineated according to scale. For the surf zone, we predict advances in wave shoaling theory, but not for wave breaking. We also predict greater understanding of turbulent processes, and substantive improvements in surf-zone circulation and radiation stress models. Very few of these improvements are expected to be incorporated in geomorphic models of coastal processes. We do not envision improvements in the theory of sediment transport, although some new and exciting empirical observations are probable. At the beach and nearshore scale, we predict the development of theoretically-based, two- and three-dimensional morphodynamical models that account for non-linear, time-dependent feedback processes using empirically calibrated modules. Most of the geomorphic research effort, however, will be concentrated at the scale of littoral cells. This scale is appropriate for coastal zone management because processes at this scale are manageable using traditional geomorphic techniques. At the largest scale, little advance will occur in our understanding of how coastlines evolve. Any empirical knowledge that is gained will accrue indirectly. Finally, we contend that anthropogenic influences, directly and indirectly, will be powerful forces in steering the future of Coastal Geomorphology.

“If you should suddenly feel the need for a lesson in humility, try forecasting the future…” (Kleppner, 1991, p. 10).