The Analytic Hierarchy Process in an uncertain environment: A simulation approach

Abstract

Traditionally, decision makers were forced to converge ambiguous judgments to a single point estimate in order to describe a pairwise relationship between alternatives relative to some criterion for use in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Since many circumstances exist which make such a convergence difficult, confidence in the outcome of an ensuing AHP synthesis may be reduced. Likewise, when a group of decision makers cannot arrive at a consensus regarding a judgment, some members of the group may simply lose confidence in the overall synthesis if they lack faith in some of the judgments. The AHP utilizes point estimates in order to derive the relative weights of criteria, sub-criteria, and alternatives which govern a decision problem. However, when point estimates are difficult to determine, distributions describing feasible judgments may be more appropriate. Using simulation, we will demonstrate that levels of confidence can be developed, expected weights can be calculated and expected ranks can be determined. It will also be shown that the simulation approach is far more revealing than traditional sensitivity analysis.