Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States☆
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2023, Journal of Business ResearchFacing global environmental change: The role of culturally embedded cognitive biases
2022, Environmental DevelopmentCitation Excerpt :Many cross-cultural differences have been found with respect to the biases and behavioural phenomena described in prospect theory such as risk aversion in gains, risk seeking in losses, probability weighting, and loss aversion. For example, individuals from collectivist societies are generally less risk averse, due to their reliance on social networks as a cushion (Hsee and Weber, 1999; Weber and Hsee, 1998; Rieger et al., 2011; Wang and Fischbeck, 2008), and are generally more overconfident in probability judgements (Yates et al., 1989, 1997, 1998; Wang and Fischbeck, 2008) than individualistic/western individuals. Rieger et al. (2011) found evidence of Hofstede's cultural variables uncertainty avoidance and individualism as causal factors for all biases in prospect theory except for probability weighting (for which only a weak correlation was found).
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2022, Global Finance JournalCitation Excerpt :The confidence interval can be considered a probability calibration task. It has been found that the Chinese tend to be less well-calibrated than Americans (e.g., Yates et al., 1989). Although one can contemplate many cultural reasons for such differences, subjects from Japan and Singapore are as good as Westerners in probability calibration tasks (Yates, Lee, Shinotsuka, Patalano, & Sieck, 1998).
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2016, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision ProcessesCitation Excerpt :The basic finding of high Chinese overconfidence was extended to some other East Asian groups in studies comparing participants from Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Indonesia (e.g., Wright & Wisudha, 1982; Wright et al., 1978). Other studies found similar patterns of overconfidence in mainland China, Taiwan, and India (e.g., Lee et al., 1995; Yates et al., 1989). Japanese people seem to be a notable exception in Asia, having displayed confidence more similar to that of Americans (Yates, Lee, Shinotsuka, Patalano, & Sieck, 1998) and at times even exhibiting under-confidence (Yates et al., 2010).
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The reported work was supported in part by U.S. National Institute of Mental Health Grant MH16892 and by a grant from the Rackham School of Graduate Studies at the University of Michigan. Some of the present research was described previously in Chinese (Yates, Zhu, Ronis, & Wang, 1987).
- 1
David L. Ronis is now at the Michigan Health Care Education and Research Foundation, Detroit, MI.
- 2
Masanao Toda is presently in the Psychology Department at Chukyo University, Nagoya, Japan.