Where are they going? A comparison of urban and rural youths' locational choices after leaving the parental home☆
Introduction
The decision for adolescents and young adults to leave their parents and their home community is complex and difficult (Cromartie, 1993; Elder et al., 1996; Gibbs, 1995; Gibbs and Cromartie, 1994; Hektner, 1995; Rudkin et al., 1994). Characteristics of the youth, their home environment, and their local community have been found to be important to the decision (Garasky et al., 2001; Gibbs and Cromartie, 1994; Lichter et al., 1990). For example, the hard economic times of the farm crisis of the 1980s led to the out-migration of many working-age youths from rural areas in the Midwest (Frey, 1993; Guither, 1988; Richter, 1985). Young adults in non-metropolitan areas continue to be highly mobile. During the late-1990s, nearly 30% of adults aged 18–24 in non-metropolitan areas moved each year, resulting in an annual net out-migration of 1.6% for this age group (Cromartie, 2000).
This study focuses on the locations to which youths move. Much of the migration literature is oriented toward the determinants of migration, while little is known about the destination choices of youths. The destination choice is important, as it impacts not only each youth's future, but also the communities left behind and joined (Beale, 2000; Frey, 1993; Guither, 1988; Lichter et al., 1979; Richter, 1985). The quality of life for residents of many communities is tied to the ability of the community to maintain a viable base of younger adults, as youths who leave the home community are often the most motivated and skilled (Cromartie, 2000; Gibbs and Cromartie, 1994; Lichter et al., 1990). This study builds on the literature related to the determinants of migration by examining how the impacts of personal, household, and local community factors together affect the decisions of youths and young adults regarding when to leave the parental home and where to locate geographically upon leaving. It is hypothesized that these factors will affect the choices of urban and rural youths differently (Hektner, 1995).
The paper continues with a review of the youth migration literature. Special attention is paid to differences found between urban and rural youths regarding the determinants that affect their migration location choices. The literature review is followed by the development of a residential location choice model. The parameters of this model are estimated with annual data from the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). The NLSY79 contains a nationally representative sample of youths aged from 14 to 21 in 1979 (N=12,686). Oversamples of Blacks, Hispanics, and economically disadvantaged Whites permit statistical analyses of these population subgroups. Survey attrition rates are low with approximately 90% of the eligible sample retained as of the 1992 survey. Results and a concluding discussion complete the text.
Section snippets
Literature review
Clearly, the migration decision process from a theoretical perspective is complex. Neoclassical economic theory purports that people move as a consequence of weighing the economic alternatives between places. Individuals select a site that optimizes their material well-being (Cadwallader, 1992; Jobes, 2000). Demographic `push–pull' models of migration suggest that individuals are pushed from locations in decline and pulled to areas of prosperity (DaVanzo, 1981). Human capital models put forward
Descriptive statistics
Descriptive statistics for the dependent and independent variables are listed in Table 1. These statistics cover the 1979–92 period and include all person–year observations in the final study sample (N=24,887). Overall, the urban and rural samples are similar with a few important exceptions. Blacks provide one-fourth of the observations for each sample, while Hispanics are much more prevalent in the urban sample (20%) than in the rural sample (4%). Regarding education, the urban sample has a
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An earlier version of this paper was presented at the NLSY97 Early Results Conference sponsored by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Joint Center for Poverty Research held November 18–19, 1999, in Washington, DC. This research has been supported in part by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. The author gratefully acknowledges the research assistance of Kirk Zinck. All opinions are those of the author.