Elsevier

The Lancet

Volume 374, Issue 9706, 12–18 December 2009, Pages 2006-2015
The Lancet

Series
Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: low-carbon electricity generation

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61715-3Get rights and content

Summary

In this report, the third in this Series on health and climate change, we assess the changes in particle air pollution emissions and consequent effects on health that are likely to result from greenhouse-gas mitigation measures in the electricity generation sector in the European Union (EU), China, and India. We model the effect in 2030 of policies that aim to reduce total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 50% by 2050 globally compared with the effect of emissions in 1990. We use three models: the POLES model, which identifies the distribution of production modes that give the desired CO2 reductions and associated costs; the GAINS model, which estimates fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter 2·5 μm or less (PM2·5) concentrations; and a model to estimate the effect of PM2·5 on mortality on the basis of the WHO's Comparative Risk Assessment methods. Changes in modes of production of electricity to reduce CO2 emissions would, in all regions, reduce PM2·5 and deaths caused by it, with the greatest effect in India and the smallest in the EU. Health benefits greatly offset costs of greenhouse-gas mitigation, especially in India where pollution is high and costs of mitigation are low. Our estimates are approximations but suggest clear health gains (co-benefits) through decarbonising electricity production, and provide additional information about the extent of such gains.

Introduction

We assess the effect on health of low-carbon electricity generation as part of a broad climate change mitigation strategy. Similar to the other reports in this Series,1, 2, 3 we assume the greenhouse pollutant abatement trajectories discussed in the UK Climate Change Committee's first report,4 and the evidence of Working Group III of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).5 The abatement trajectories in these reports are based on the idea that global emissions need to decrease soon and halve by 2050 compared with emissions in 1990, with an especially great reduction in high-income countries.

We focus on the changes that can be implemented with potentially available technology to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 50% in high-income countries by 2030 and less in low-income and middle-income countries. These reductions in emissions by 2030 are consistent with an approach that will reduce emissions worldwide by 50% by 2050. We consider three case studies: the EU (27 countries), China, and India.

Section snippets

Models

We developed models to estimate health effects of electricity generation in 2010 and three scenarios for 2030—business as usual and two mitigation scenarios. Electricity generation is associated with almost every aspect of modern life and affects health in many ways (figure).6, 7 To quantify the effects of electricity generation on health, we focused in this study on pathways related to environmental emissions of particle air pollution, and did not take into account those arising from other

Estimation of health burdens

Methods for estimation of health burdens are described in detail in the webappendix pp 1–2. Briefly, we used an adaptation of the 2000 Comparative Risk Assessment exercise for the global burden of disease to estimate premature mortality, and hence years of life lost, in 2010 as a result of particulate air pollution, and how that would change under various counterfactual exposure concentrations estimated by the GAINS model. Years of life lost were not discounted or age-weighted, as is standard

Effects of mitigation policies on health

Table 3 shows particle pollution exposures and health burdens for 2010, business-as-usual scenario for 2030, and the two mitigation scenarios for 2030 compared with the business-as-usual exposures for 2030. Air pollution exposure has a serious effect on health in the EU. Years of life lost in 2010 would be 2002 per million people, which, with no climate change mitigation policies, would fall to 1185 per million people with emissions predicted from changes projected anyway by 2030 (caused by

Conclusions

This study indicates that some health benefits will result from changes in the means of electricity generation in response to a 50% CO2 reduction target by 2050. Estimates indicate savings in years of life that will be greatest in India, followed by China. If in 2030 changes were made that were consistent with the 2050 reduction targets, gains in India and China would be about 1500 and 500 life-years per million people, respectively. In the EU, the benefits are expected to be more modest, at

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