Article
Review of international tourism demand models

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00049-2Get rights and content

Abstract

Detailed descriptive classifications according to the decade of publication, type of data, sample sizes, model specifications, the types of dependent and explanatory variables used, and the number of explanatory variables used, are provided and reviewed for 100 published studies of empirical international tourism demand models. Most of the studies undertaken have been published in the 80s, have used annual data, and have been based on estimation of loglinear single-equation models. Tourist arrivals/departures and expenditures/receipts have been the most frequently used dependent variables. The most popular explanatory variables used have been income, relative tourism prices, and transportation costs.

Résumé

Un inventaire des modèles de la demande du tourisme international. L'article présente le compte rendu de 100 études publiées de modèles empiriques de la demande du tourisme international, avec des classifications descriptives et détaillées selon la décennie de publication, type de données, étendue de l'enquête, spécifications du modèle, types de variables dépendantes et explicatives et nombre de variables explicatives. La plupart des études ont été publiées aux années 80, ont utilisé des données annuelles et ont été basées sur l'estimation des modèles à registre linéaire et àéquation unique. Les variables qui ont été utilisées les plus fréquemment sont les départs/arrivées des touristes et les dépenses/recettes. Les variables explicatives les plus utilisées ont été revenu, prix relatifs du tourisme et coût des transports.

References (34)

  • C. Ong

    Tourism Demand Models: A Critique

    Mathematics and Computers in Simulation

    (1995)
  • A.B. Smith et al.

    Factors Affecting Demand for International Travel to and from Australia

  • W.B. Stronge et al.

    US Tourism in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis

    Annals of Tourism Research

    (1982)
  • J.R. Artus

    The Effect of Revaluation on the Foreign Travel Balance of Germany

    International Monetary Fund Staff Papers

    (1970)
  • I. Bakkal et al.

    Characteristics of US Demand for European Tourism: A Translog Approach

    Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv

    (1991)
  • K. Barry et al.

    An Econometric Study of British Tourist Expenditure in Ireland

    Economic and Social Review

    (1972)
  • A.K. Bera et al.

    An Efficient Large Sample Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals

  • J. Blackwell

    Tourist Traffic and the Demand for Accommodation: Some Projections

    Economic and Social Review

    (1970)
  • G.E.P. Box et al.

    An Analysis of Transformations

    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society

    (1964)
  • T.S. Breusch et al.

    A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation

    Econometrica

    (1979)
  • G.C. Chow

    Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions

    Econometrica

    (1960)
  • G.I. Crouch

    The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Review of Findings

    Journal of Travel Research

    (1994)
  • D.A. Dickey et al.

    Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time-Series with a Unit Root

    Journal of the American Statistical Association

    (1979)
    D.A. Dickey et al.

    Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time-Series with a Unit Root

    Econometrica

    (1981)
  • S. Divisekera

    International Demand for Australian Travel and Tourism

    S. Divisekera

    A Model of Demand for International Tourism: A Multi-Country Demand System

  • J. Durbin

    Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables

    Econometrica

    (1970)
  • J. Durbin et al.

    Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression I

    Biometrika

    (1950)
    J. Durbin et al.

    Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression II

    Biometrika

    (1951)
  • A. Edwards

    International Tourism Development Forecast to 1985

    A. Edwards

    International Tourism Development Forecasts to 1990

  • Cited by (0)

    Her research areas include applied econometrics and tourism management.

    View full text