Global warming and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models

doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(97)00009-X

Global and Planetary Change

Volume 15, Issues 3–4, October 1997, Pages 61-77

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(97)00009-X Get rights and content

Abstract

The near-surface thermal regime in permafrost regions could change significantly in response to anthropogenic climate warming. Because there is only a small lag between these two processes, the impact of warming on the active layer can be investigated using relatively simple climate-driven models. A formulation attributable to Kudryavtsev was used to study the potential increase of active-layer thickness in the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where warming is predicted to be more pronounced than elsewhere. Kudryavtsev's solution was validated using contemporary data, and successfully reproduced the actual depths of frost and thaw at widely spaced locations in North America and Eurasia. Modern climatic data and scenarios of climate change for 2050, derived from three transient coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs), were used in conjunction with the thaw-depth solution to generate hemispheric maps showing contemporary active-layer thickness for several soil types and moisture conditions, and its relative changes over the next century. The simulations indicate a 20–30% increase of active-layer thickness for most of the permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest relative increases concentrated in the northernmost locations.

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Cited by (193)

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We assess physical and chemical processes driving seasonal fluctuations in dissolved (<0.45 μm) trace metal(loid) concentrations in subarctic streams in discontinuous permafrost. Our analysis integrates multiple years of stream hydrometric and geochemical data with geochemical analyses of bedrock, permafrost, and active-layer samples. Three principal flow regimes govern stream hydrology: winter baseflow, spring freshet, and summer high flows. Metal(oid) concentrations in streams respond seasonally to these flow regimes. Baseflows are dominated by discharge of circumneutral-pH groundwater draining fractured bedrock. This discharge acts as a source of metals found as oxyanions or neutrally charged complexes, such as uranium and molybdenum. High stream flows are associated with peak concentrations of aluminium, cobalt, copper, iron, nickel, titanium, and vanadium. Concentrations of the metal cations aluminium, cobalt, copper, nickel, and titanium peak during freshet, when infiltration of snowmelt through organic-rich and moderately acidic soils favors their complexation with dissolved organic carbon. Concentrations of vanadium peak during summer high flows, likely reflecting flow through mineral soils in the active layer and involving reductive dissolution of iron(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides. The seasonal variation of arsenic concentrations is complex; at the majority of catchments it is sourced from shallow flowpaths in the active layer, but it can also be locally associated with discharge of deeper bedrock groundwater, which is spatially constrained by the presence of permafrost. Based on our analysis, we present a conceptual model that describes the flowpaths and processes governing metal(loid) release to streams in discontinuous permafrost. This model provides a framework upon which we consider changes in metal(loid) export into water resources in the context of thawing permafrost.
Research progress on hydrological effects of permafrost degradation in the Northern Hemisphere
2023, Geoderma
Permafrost degradation alters the flow rate, direction, and storage capacity of soil moisture, affecting ecohydrological effects and climate systems, and posing a potential threat to natural and human systems. The most widely distributed permafrost regions are coastal, high-latitudes and high-altitudes (mainly by the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau). Past studies have demonstrated that permafrost degradation in these regions lacks sorting out regional driving factors, assessing cascading effects on the hydrological environment and monitoring methods. To address this, we reviewed the historical research situation and major topics of permafrost degradation from 1990 to 2022. We analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamics and driving mechanism of permafrost degradation. Then, we comprehensively discussed the effects of permafrost degradation on the soil physical structure and hydraulic properties, soil microorganisms and local vegetation, soil evapotranspiration and stream runoff, and integrated ecohydrological effects. Permafrost field site data were then collected from existing findings and methods for direct or indirect monitoring of permafrost changes at different scales. These results revealed that the research on the hydrological effects of permafrost change was mainly centered on the soil. In addition, regional environmental factors driving permafrost degradation were inconsistent mainly in coastal regions influenced by sea level, high-latitude regions influenced by lightning and wildfire, and high-altitude regions influenced by topography. Permafrost degradation promoted horizontal and/or vertical hydrological connectivity, threatening the succession of high latitude vegetation communities and the transition from high altitude grassland to desert ecosystems, causing regional water imbalances would mitigate or amplify the ability of integrated ecohydrological benefits to cope with climate warming. The never-monitored permafrost area was 1.55×10⁶ km², but the limitations of using data for the same period remained a challenging task for soil moisture monitoring. Finally, future research should enhance the observation of driving factors at the monitoring site and combine remote sensing data, model simulations or numerical simulations, and isotope tracers to predict the future degradation state of deep permafrost effectively. It is expected that this review will guide further quantifying the driving mechanisms of permafrost degradation and the resulting cascading effects.
Quantified spatial-temporal variation of the fine-scale frozen soils during 1980–2014 in the headwaters of the Yellow River (HWYR) in High Mountain Asia
2023, Catena
Global warming has aggravated the problem of permafrost degradation, the long-term variation of which is not well estimated. In this study, a fully coupled hydrothermal dynamics cold region hydrologic model was used to quantify the historical spatial–temporal characteristics of permafrost degradation by estimating the depth to permafrost table (DPT), taliks in different subbasins, maximum frozen depth (MFD) for seasonally frozen ground (SFG), thaw date (TD), and annual number of frozen days (NFD) in the headwaters of the Yellow River (HWYR) in eastern High Mountain Asia. The model considered the taliks and successfully estimated four historical fine-scale permafrost maps. Permafrost degradation began with the enlargement of active layer thickness (ALT), formation of taliks, rise in the permafrost bottom, and merging of the permafrost table and bottom, and ended with a decrease in MFD. From 1980 to 2014, the permafrost area (PA) in the study area decreased by a total of 17,849 km² at a rate of more than −7100 km²/decade (−5.8 %/decade). The mean DPT increased by 0.8 m at 31.76 cm/decade and more than 100 cm/decade at the grid scale. The absolute MFD (AMFD) decreased by 0.11 m at −14.47 cm/decade. The mean TD decreased by 14.28 days at −5.56 days/decade and more than −20 days/decade at the grid scale. The mean NFD decreased by 25.51 days at −9.97 days/decade. The lowland area had a smaller NFD and an earlier TD than the mountainous area. Basins with a large air temperature (AT) and small elevation had a small DPT, MFD, TD, NFD, a large rate of decrease in TD and NFD, and increase in absolute DPT (ADPT), and a small rate of decrease in AMFD. The rates of increase in ADPT and decrease in AMFD were close to 0 when the change in AT was lower than 0.55 °C/decade.
Changes in near-surface permafrost temperature and active layer thickness in Northeast China in 1961–2020 based on GIPL model
2023, Cold Regions Science and Technology
Characteristics of active layer processes depend on the conditions of the ground surface, coupled water-heat balance, soil hydrology, and soil properties under frozen and thawed states at shallow depths. Mean annual temperature at the bottom of the active layer (MATBAL) and active layer thickness (ALT) are important metrics in studying the features of active layer processes and the thermal stability of permafrost. Affected by the changing climate, permafrost regions in Northeast China have undergone remarkable changes in the past 30 years, many of which are still ongoing. In Northeast China, however, model studies on examining hydrothermal dynamics and on changes in frozen ground have faced serious challenges, including a complex ecological environment and rugged terrains. In this study, the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model was used to map temporal and spatial variations in MATBAL and ALT in Northeast China, where discontinuous, island, and sporadic permafrost coexists with seasonal frost. Using the parameters of ground surface temperature (GST) and soil properties as input, we applied the GIPL model to analyze the distributive characteristics of near-surface permafrost in Northeast China. The results indicate a sharply shrinking permafrost area from 5.49 × 10⁵ to 2.29 × 10⁵ km² but rapidly rising rates of 0.17–0.83 °C/decade in MATBAL in Northeast China during the period from 1961 to 2020. Under a persistently warming climate, accelerating permafrost degradation will inevitably affect the hydrological environment, boreal ecosystem, soil biology, and engineering infrastructure. This work fills a gap in the distribution of MATBAL and ALT in Northeast China.
PermaBN: A Bayesian Network framework to help predict permafrost thaw in the Arctic
2022, Ecological Informatics
Citation Excerpt :
The expectation is that as observations and model outputs become available, estimates of the model become more accurate and precise when added to the experts' assessments. The following subsections define and review the key geomorphic and ecological processes that influence continuous permafrost thaw and that are represented in PermaBN; while it is acknowledged that hydrological processes such as river dynamics and the presence of surface water (e.g., lakes) also exert an important control on permafrost thaw (Burn and Kokelj, 2009; Kokelj and Jorgenson, 2013; Zheng et al., 2019), PermaBN, along with the majority of existing permafrost models (e.g., Kudryavtsev model by Anisimov et al. (1997), GIPL2-MPI by Jafarov et al. (2012), and Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) by Tao et al. (2017)), implicitly include hydrological processes through the representation of ground heat fluxes and thermal conductivity: Topography: landscape-scale geologic and topographic characteristics and processes typically remain consistent, at the human timescale, in their influence on other system components such as vegetation communities, snow depth, and soil moisture.
Rising global temperatures are a threat to the current state of the Arctic. In particular, permafrost degradation has been impacting the terrestrial cryosphere in many ways, including effects on carbon cycling and the global climate, regional hydrological connectivity and ecosystem dynamics, as well as human health and infrastructure. However, the ability to simulate permafrost dynamics under future climate projections is limited, and model outputs are often associated with large uncertainties. A model structured on a Bayesian Network is presented to address existing limitations in the representation of physically complex processes and the limited availability of observational data. A strength of Bayesian methods over more traditional modeling methods is the ability to integrate various types of evidence (i.e., observations, model outputs, expert assessments) into a single model by mapping the evidence into probability distributions. Here, we outline PermaBN, a new modeling framework, to simulate permafrost thaw in the continuous permafrost region of the Arctic. Pre-validation and expert assessment validation results show that the model produces estimations of permafrost thaw depth that are consistent with current research, i.e., thaw depth increases during the snow-free season under initial conditions favoring warming temperatures, lowered soil moisture conditions, and low active layer ice content. Using a case study from northwestern Canada to evaluate PermaBN, we show that model performance is enhanced when certainty about the system components increases for known scenarios described by observations directly integrated into the model; in this case, insulation properties from vegetation were integrated to the model. Overall, PermaBN could provide informative predictions about permafrost dynamics without high computational cost and with the ability to integrate multiple types of evidence that traditional physics-based models sometimes do not account for, allowing PermaBN to be applied to carbon modeling studies, infrastructure hazard assessments, and policy decisions aimed at mitigation of, and adaptation to, permafrost degradation.
Synthesis of physical processes of permafrost degradation and geophysical and geomechanical properties of permafrost
2022, Cold Regions Science and Technology
Citation Excerpt :
Rising air temperatures, however, are driving permafrost degradation in high-latitude regions (Jorgenson et al., 2006; Romanovsky et al., 2010; Biskaborn et al., 2019). As a result, the performance of civil infrastructure is being affected by various modes of permafrost degradation such as permafrost warming (Nelson et al., 2002; Olsen, 2015), active layer thickening (Anisimov et al., 1997; Osterkamp and Romanovsky, 1999; Osterkamp, 2007; Rowland et al., 2010), and talik formation (Smith and Riseborough, 2010). Ongoing climate warming and subsequent permafrost degradation is expected to have widespread negative impacts on infrastructure (Nelson et al., 2001; Melvin et al., 2016; Hjort et al., 2018).
Recent permafrost degradation across the high northern latitude regions has impacted the performance of the civil infrastructure. This study summarizes the current state of physical processes of permafrost degradation in a geotechnical context and the properties of permafrost-affected soils critical for evaluating the performance of infrastructures commonly built in the high northern latitude regions. We collected a total of 96 datasets with 3162 data points from 38 journal and conference publications and analyzed the variations of geomechanical and geophysical properties under the effects of permafrost degradation. The datasets represent a range of geomechanical and geophysical properties of permafrost-affected soils with different compositions under different testing conditions. While the data collected are highly scattered, regression analysis shows that most geomechanical and geophysical properties have strong associations with temperature. These associations highlight that ongoing warming can greatly affect the performance of civil infrastructures at high northern latitudes. These properties include elastic moduli, strength parameters, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, unfrozen water content, and hydraulic conductivity. This paper also discusses other factors, such as soil type, soil composition, and confining pressure, which may further complicate the relationships between temperature and the geomechanical and geophysical properties. Through this review, we identify key knowledge gaps and highlight the complex interplay of permafrost degradation, temperature, soil heterogeneity, and soil geomechanical and geophysical properties. Given the scarcity of certain permafrost properties in addition to the complex processes of permafrost degradation in the geotechnical context, there is a need to establish a comprehensive and curated database of permafrost properties. Hence, we encourage broader collaboration and participation by the engineering and scientific communities in this effort.

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Global warming and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models

Abstract

Global Planet. Change

Ecol. Modelling

An Introduction to Frozen Ground Engineering

Changing climate and permafrost distribution in the Soviet Arctic

Phys. Geogr.

Permafrost zonation and climate change: results from transient general circulation models

Climatic Change

Permafrost map of the Northern Hemisphere

Frozen Ground

Mechanisms of direct and indirect climate forcing by aerosols in the Arctic region

Anthropogenic Climatic Change

Arctic Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: An Ecophysiological Perspective

Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Climate Dynamics

Approximate quantitative estimate of the influence of various factors of the natural situation on the temperature regime of rocks

Geocryology of the USSR

Methane flux from thawing Siberian permafrost (ice complexes)—results from field observations

Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union

Application of Mathematical Methods and Computers in Investigations of Geocryological Processes

Circumarctic map of permafrost and ground ice conditions

Thermal Geotechnics

Fundamentals of Frost Forecasting in Geological Engineering Investigations

The HASA Database for Mean Monthly Values of Temperature, Precipitation, and Cloudiness on a Global Terrestrial Grid

Prospects for Future Climate: A Special US/USSR Report on Climate and Climate Change

Active layer changes (1968 to 1993) following the forest-tundra fire near Inuvik, N.W.T., Canada

Arct. Alp. Res.

Transient responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2, Part I. Annual mean response

J. Climate

Atmospheric and climatic change in the Arctic and Antarctic

Ambio

Carbon storage and distribution in tundra soils of Arctic Alaska, U.S.A.

Arct. Alp. Res.

Arct. Alp. Res.

On surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and aerosols: models and observations

J. Climate

Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing carbon dioxide, Part I. Control climate and flux correction

J. Climate

Transient responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO₂, Part I. Annual mean response