Chapter 8 The agricultural transformation

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From both historical and contemporary cross-section perspectives, the agricultural transformation seems to evolve through at least four phases that are roughly definable. The process starts when agricultural productivity per worker rises. This increased productivity creates a surplus, which in the second phase can be tapped directly, through taxation and factor flows, or indirectly, through government intervention into the rural-urban terms of trade. This surplus can be utilized to develop the nonagricultural sector, and this phase has been the focus of most dual economy models of development. For resources to flow out of agriculture, rural factor, and product markets must become better integrated with those in the rest of the economy. The progressive integration of the agricultural sector into the macro economy, via improved infrastructure and market-equilibrium linkages, represents a third phase in agricultural development. When this phase is successful, the fourth phase is barely noticeable; the role of agriculture in industrialized economies is little different from the rote of the steel, housing, or insurance sectors. But when the integration is not successfully accomplished—and most countries have found it extremely difficult for political reasons—governments encounter serious problems of resource allocation and even problems beyond their borders because of pervasive attempts by high-income countries to protect their farmers from foreign competition.

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    I would like to thank the participants at the authors' workshop for helpful reactions to my initial ideas for this chapter. Particular thanks go to Larry Westphal, Pranab K. Bardhan, David Dapice, and Scott Pearson for serious and critical readings of the first draft. As always, my deepest debt is to my wife and editor, Carol, for her patience and persistence in helping me make my manuscripts readable and for her mastery of the wonderful new technology that permits me to lose half the manuscript with the push of a button and for her to get it back after considerable effort and anguish.

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