Do indigenous forecasts and scientific forecasts influence arable farmers’ and agro-pastoralists’ estimation of onset and cessation of rains? Empirical evidence from Rwenzori region, Western Uganda
Introduction
Although the distribution of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) by national meteorological services has improved in the recent past with establishment of regional climate outlook fora in the developing world (Ogallo, 2010; Tall, 2010), arable farmers and pastoralists have not made good use of forecasts for onset and cessation rains (Goddard et al., 2010). This has contributed to their vulnerability to the effects of rainfall seasonality change that include loss of crop harvests. The low use of SCFs has negative implications on the choice of crop enterprises that match the length of the rain season for arable farmers engaged in annual crop production. Furthermore, low use of SCFs may result into poor livestock breeding outcomes for pastoralists (such as reduced milk yields, livestock mortality and reduction in herd size) which would adversely affect their livelihoods. Overall, these negative effects due to poor use of SCFs have huge negative social and economic implications on rural development in developing countries.
Climate variability manifests itself in various forms including unpredictable onset and cessation of rains. Increased variability could have negative impacts on rural households, such as through poor crop yields and pasture scarcity which might induce food insecurity and reduced household incomes (Simelton et al., 2013). Pastoralists and arable farmers use indigenous forecasts (IFs) and scientific forecasts (SFs) to predict onset and cessation of rains to reduce their vulnerability to rainfall seasonality (Kalanda-Joshua et al., 2011; Okonya and Kroschel, 2013; Orlove et al., 2010). Several studies have reported that climate information on onset of rains is considered as one of the most important pieces of information among pastoralists and arable farmers in seasonal climate forecasts (Luseno et al., 2003; Speranza et al., 2010). Forecasts on onset of rains are used by pastoralists in their seasonal calendar events such as herd mobility while arable farmers use the climate information for planning of their crop enterprises under rain-fed agriculture (Roncoli et al., 2002; Speranza et al., 2010). Several onset and cessation of rains studies (Marteaua et al., 2011; Mugalavai et al., 2008; Omotosho et al., 2000; Sivakumar, 1988) have focused mainly on determining onset and cessation dates. However, there is very little in the literature about the association between pastoralists’ and arable farmers’ estimation of onset and cessation of rains and the forecast type used.
There are two main types of definition according to onset of rains literature, namely meteorological onset and agro-climatic onset. The agro-climatic onset has been defined as the optimal date when there is sufficient soil moisture during planting and early growing periods to avoid crop failure and without immediate dry spell of 7 days in the next 30 days (Marteaua et al., 2011). This implies that having long dry spells after a rain down pour does not persuade farmers to plant due to the likelihood of crop failure. On the other hand, meteorological onset refers to the first wet day after a dry season with 20 mm of rainfall (Marteaua et al., 2011). This implies that one or two down pours with a total amount of 20 mm symbolizes onset even if there is a dry spell thereafter. Obviously farmers are uncomfortable with meteorological onsets as a basis of crop planting decisions. Agro-climatic onset is associated with crop performance after first rain days with sufficient available water in the root zone while meteorological onset is associated amounts of the first rains (Marteaua et al., 2011). For this study, the agro-climatic definition using historical daily rainfall data was used which relates to crop production. Several onset and cessation studies have taken into consideration crop production in their analysis (Marteau et al., 2011; Mugalavai et al., 2008). Late onset and early cessation lead to reduced growing season which results in reduction of crop yields. Plants have critical periods (such as the grain filling stage for maize) when there is high need for water (Rao et al., 2011). Insufficient supply of water at the critical crop growing stages results in poor crop yield or total failure in extreme cases (Rao et al., 2011; Traore et al., 2013). Occurrence of long dry spells of 5–20 days after planting lead to poor germination and reduction in crop yields of 40% for cotton and maize (Traore et al., 2013). Cessation was defined as last date of the rain season with no rain for a period of 20 days and there is no useful contribution of available water to root zone of the crop sown (Sivakumar, 1988). The word useful that implies the available water can be utilized by the plants after considering water losses due to evapotranspiration and loss from the soil due to prevailing maximum temperatures in the agro-ecological zones. Thus, for this study, the agro-climatic approach was adopted.
Arable farmers and pastoralists have not made good use of SFs for onset and cessation of rains due to its shortcomings in saliency, credibility, trust and legitimacy (Cash et al., 2006, 2003; McNie, 2007; Patt and Gwata, 2002). Furthermore, Goddard et al. (2010) indicated that poor spatial resolution, temporal resolution and local specificity of SFs were major areas of concern to end users. These shortcomings are attributed to the low meteorological station density in African countries including Uganda (Medany et al., 2006; UNECA, 2011). The other constraints of national meteorological systems in Africa include dysfunctional stations and poor maintenance of equipment (Snow et al., 2016; UNECA, 2011). With these challenges of national meteorological services, some farmers have lost confidence in SFs and are using indigenous forecasts (IFs) because of their perceived good spatial and temporal resolution. However, there are some initiatives by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) that are intervening on the issue of low station density in Africa through provision of automatic weather stations to countries (Snow et al., 2016).
The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in conjunction with Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) provides SCFs for arable farmers and pastoralists. UNMA downscales SCFs which include onset and cessation of rains every February and September for Rwenzori region (UNMA, 2017). UNMA networks with radio and television stations in the dissemination of the forecasts. Despite access to SCFs, arable farmers and pastoralists in Rwenzori region use IFs in estimating onset and cessation of rains (Nganzi et al., 2015; Okonya and Kroschel, 2013). In the Rwenzori region (Fig. 1), the low confidence in SFs has been attributed to the low station density.
Several studies among arable farmers and pastoralists in Africa have demonstrated the influence of IFs and SFs on the estimation of onset and/or cessation of rainfall. Examples include Luseno et al. (2003) in Kenya;Ingrama et al. (2002); Roncoli et al. (2002), Roncoli et al. (2008) in Burkina Faso; and Nanja (2010) in Zambia. Several other studies have reported that indigenous knowledge forecasts are used in predicting onset and cessation of rains in Australia (Green et al., 2010), Kenya (Speranza et al., 2010), Senegal (Roudier et al., 2014) and Uganda (Orlove et al., 2010).
It is thus evident from the literature reviewed that IFs and SFs influence the estimation of onset and cessation of rainfall by African farmers and pastoralist. However, there is still a knowledge gap on the whether the relationship of the forecast type is positive or negative? Thus, the research question addressed by this paper is: ‘Does the forecast type used by pastoralists and arable farmers have positive or negative relationship with their estimation of onset and cessation of rains? Therefore, the paper presents findings of a study that investigated the relationship between using IFs and/or SFs on arable farmers’ and pastoralists’ estimation of onset and cessations of rains in Rwenzori region in Western Uganda. The aim is to give empirical evidence that can be used by agricultural and rural development stakeholders to improve the resilience of arable farmers and pastoralists to climate variability and improve their preparedness for the rainy seasons under rain-fed agriculture. The study contributes to the international literature that relates to the use of forecasts to the estimation of onset and cessation of rains in the developing world.
Section snippets
The study area
The study was done in Rwenzori region in Western Uganda that has mountainous, lowland, wetland, forested, mountainous and forested agro-ecological areas (Fig. 1). Orographic features in the study area include Mountain Rwenzori, natural and planted Forest Protected Areas (FPAs). Literature shows that topographic features such as mountains1
Results
The results indicate that onset dates for the 1st season were on 11th, 17th, 19th March while cessation was on the 8th, 11th, 21st June for lowlands, mountainous and forested areas respectively. For the 2nd season, forested and mountainous areas had their onsets on 3rd and 20th August respectively, but lowland area had its onset on 2nd September (Table 1). Based on FGDs, it became evident that IFs and SFs were in general agreement in terms of predicting onset of rains for the 2nd rainy season.
Discussion
The findings are in agreement with an earlier study done in Western Uganda (Breytenbach, 2013) that revealed that onset of rains in neighborhoods of Kibale National park was in March for the first season and August for the second season. Earlier research elsewhere has also revealed that onset of rains in the equatorial tropics was in the month of March (Amekudzi et al., 2015; Odekunle, 2004) in Ghana and Nigeria, cessation of rains took place from October to December depending on the location
Conclusion
The study findings suggest that there was a negative relationship between using IF only and estimation of onset and cessation of rains but positive relationship with using both SF and IF for arable farmers. There was a strong negative relationship between using both IF and SF and estimation of onset dates for the 2nd season for arable farmers’ in forested areas but strong positive relationship with using IF only. The coefficients of variation for the onsets of both 1st and 2nd seasons for
Acknowledgement
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Family savings of the lead author were used for data collection and special thanks to Nassali Mercy Nkuba for moral support.
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