Estimation of irrigation requirement for sustainable water resources reallocation in North China
Introduction
One of the greatest challenges in North China Plain (NCP) is severe water shortage, driven by strong water demands from the huge population, and rapidly expanding irrigated-agriculture, commercial and domestic sectors. Agriculture has been specifically identified as the major water user, accounting for about 70% total water use in the plain (HDWC, 2001). As surface water is strictly controlled and almost entirely reserved for metropolitan use, irrigation water demand is mainly met by groundwater extraction. Intensive groundwater use since the 1970s, far exceeds sustainable yields, resulting in sharp groundwater drawdown in the region (Liu, 1998). On the average, groundwater levels have dropped in excess of 10 m over an estimated area of 40 000 km2 in the plain (Chen et al., 2000, Li and Wei, 2003).
To ensure long-term water supply and to preserve the agro-based economy in NCP (which produces nearly 30% of China's grains), the South–North Water Transfer (SNWT) project is under construction. Upon completion in 2014, about 4.8 billion m3 of water will annually be delivered via the middle route from Yangtze River to the northern region of the plain (OSC, 2008). While the water is earmarked mainly for industrial and domestic supply (Xu et al., 2007), surface water that is presently used for this purpose will be released for agricultural and environmental use. This will reduce the rate of groundwater decline in the plain. However, spatial and temporal reallocation of the local surface water resources among different agricultural uses will emerge with arrival of the external water from the SNWT project.
Agricultural water use is traditionally determined at different levels of the water bureau through farm surveys of cultivated land areas, and irrigation frequencies and quotas (Water Resources Department of Hebei Province (WRDHP), 2001). The traditional method is only reliable if based upon extensive farmland and irrigation quota surveys. Furthermore, traditional methods based on statistical data are not sensitive to spatial and temporal variations in agricultural water use. In fact agricultural water use in any region of the world is extremely difficult to measure accurately. Doll and Siebert (2002) observed that modeling water requirements as a function of irrigated area, climate and crop not only enhances sustainable future development paths, but also broadens our understanding of current water use situations.
Among different methods of estimating agricultural water use, the Penman–Monteith equation for reference ET (Allen et al., 1998) in combination with crop coefficient (Kc) (for actual ET) are commonly used to estimate irrigation water requirement in different regions of China (Chen et al., 1995). Though the accuracy of crop models depends on the resolution of input data, parameterization and accuracy of calibration, such models constitute a more feasible method of quantifying irrigation water requirement. Generally, crop models simulate daily crop growth and water balance at different phonological stages, and are therefore more reliable (Yang et al., 2006a, Yang et al., 2006b). Modeling agronomic processes require basic data and knowledge of crop phenology. Agronomic data and coefficients are routinely obtainable from experimental or long-term agro-climatic stations.
Estimation of the spatial distribution of irrigation water requirements often takes into account spatial variations in crop and soil type, climate, etc. Doll and Siebert (2002) estimated distributed global irrigation water requirement, taking into account spatial variations in potential ET, irrigation water use efficiency, crop type and cultivation season. Using irrigation models and spatial data for soil, climate, land use and irrigation, Knox et al. (1996) estimated distributed irrigation water requirement for England and Wales. These studies suggest that point-based irrigation estimation methods based on crop models, in combination with spatial data (on such factors as climate, soil, cropping pattern, land use, irrigation efficiency and percent irrigated area), could be used to reliably simulate agricultural water use at regional to global scale.
In this paper, we use DSSAT-wheat, DSSAT-maize and COTTO2K, in combination with the reference ET and Kc methods, to estimate spatial and temporal distributions of agricultural water requirement in Hebei Plain. The study will provide a scientific basis for agricultural water allocation following the completion of the SNWT project.
Section snippets
Study area
The study area, Hebei Plain, is located at the northern part of NCP between 113.5–117.8°E and 36.0–39.5°N. It includes 84 counties and covers a total area of 61 636 km2 (Fig. 1). Hydrologically, Hebei Plain belongs to Haihe Catchment and has the highest groundwater depletion in North China. With a semi-humid climate, average annual temperature and precipitation in the plain are respectively 12–13 °C and 450–600 mm. About 80% of the precipitation occurs from June to September. Loam (also known as
Change in planting pattern and irrigation area
The dominant crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) are cultivated in a continuous crop rotation system. Since 80% of the precipitation occurs from June to September, winter wheat is sustained mainly by groundwater irrigation. Wheat accounted for over 50% of the total cultivated area for the period 1986–2006. Although cultivated wheat area has steadily declined since 1999, cultivated maize area has steadily increased (Fig. 2). Wheat is mainly cultivated in the western
Uncertainty and bias
Crop models and pan-evaporation coefficient method were used to estimate crop water requirement aiming to provide a scientific basis for water reallocation following the completion of the SNWT project. Crop models were used to simulate crop water use based on crop growth and field and climatic conditions. This is, by far, more inclusive and reliable than the FAO method, which estimates crop evapotranspiration based on observed or standard values of crop development (Leenhardt et al., 2004). The
Acknowledgements
Financial support by International Collaborative Project from the Ministry of Science & Technology of China (2009DFA21690) and the Key Innovation Project (KZCX1-YW-08-03-04) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences are duly appreciated. We thank the supporting staff for the data collection and organization. We are also grateful to the editor, Dr. Chris Perry, and two anonymous reviewers for their critical comments and constructive suggestions on the paper.
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