AnalysisThe physical economy of the European Union: Cross-country comparison and determinants of material consumption
Introduction
During the last decade, numerous material flow accounts for national economies in various geographical regions have been compiled. The literature on national material flow analyses predominantly discusses levels and trends of highly aggregated material flows for single countries1 and only few studies provide comparative analyses across countries.2
One of the insights gained from this body of research was that the per capita levels of material use and the composition of materials used can be quite different even among highly industrial economies of similar per capita income levels (Eurostat, 2002b, ETC-WMF (European topic centre on waste and material flows), 2003, Bringezu et al., 2004, Weisz et al., in press-b). In this paper we ask for the factors that determine the differences in material use across EU-15 countries. As potential explanatory variables, we consider natural (e.g. climate, resource availability, natural productivity) and socio-economic factors (e.g. consumption patterns, trade patterns, the structure of the economy, national income, population density) as well as the interrelations between them.
As far as we are aware this question has not been addressed yet. To some extent this is due to a lack of comparability among available data sets. Although major steps towards methodological harmonization have been achieved with the publication of a methodological guide by the European Statistical Office (Eurostat, 2001), still a number of important issues remain to be standardized. Therefore, economy-wide material flow accounts still may differ substantially concerning the applied system boundaries and methods for estimating missing data, thus obstructing meaningful cross-country comparisons (Eurostat, 2002b, Weisz et al., in press-b).
But even if efforts towards a comparative perspective were undertaken, little attention was paid to identifying the factors that determine the structure and magnitude of the use of materials. This is due to the fact that until recently MFA indicators have been analysed only at very high levels of aggregation. High levels of aggregation, however, mask that the different types of materials are influenced by different driving factors which determine their level of use.
With the publication of the latest material flow accounts for the EU-15 countries (Weisz et al., in press-b), both comparability and level of disaggregation have increased. This data set covers the period 1970 to 2001 and provides harmonized accounts which are–contrary to previous MFA data sets–broken down by 12 types of materials, thus allowing for a detailed but still comprehensive comparative analysis of material use across EU-15 member states. It should be noted that a similar attempt of breaking down economy-wide material flow accounts by types of materials has been initiated in parallel by the European Commission for the EU-25 and three accession countries (van der Voet et al., 2005). This study, though, aimed at weighting material flows by LCA factors and not at explaining differences in the level of use.
The remaining paper is structured as follows. We first explain briefly the most important definitions and concepts applied (Section 2). We then give an overview of the variability of per capita domestic material consumption among EU-15 member states for the year 2000 (Section 3) and put this into context to the variability of other macro indicators (Section 4). Next we illustrate that neither national income nor energy use alone are sufficient explanatory factors for the differences in domestic material consumption (Section 5). We continue with a detailed description and analysis of the use patterns of the different types of materials and the identification of factors which influence their use levels (6 What determines the quantity of biomass use?, 7 Piled everywhere but statistically neglected: construction minerals, 8 Industrial minerals and ores: key mobile ingredients of industrial production, 9 Fossil fuels: weight and energy disparities). Concluding we summarize the most important driving factors that determine overall domestic material consumption in the EU-15 countries, re-examine the interpretation and significance of DMC as environmental indicator, and identify future research needs for economy-wide material flow analysis (Section 10).
Section snippets
Definitions and methods
Economy-wide material flow accounts (MFA) are consistent compilations of the overall material inputs into a national economy, the material accumulation within the economic system and the material outputs to other economies or to the environment (Fig. 1). MFAs cover all material inputs apart from water and air of a national economy in tonnes per year (Eurostat, 2001). Economy-wide MFA thereby intends to complement the system of national accounts monitoring production and consumption activities
Cross-country variability of domestic material consumption
The magnitude of domestic material consumption in the EU-15 as a whole amounted to almost 6 billion tonnes or 15.7 tonnes per capita in the year 2000. 5 billion tonnes were annually extracted from the domestic territory of the EU. On average, these quantities of biomass, industrial minerals, construction minerals, ores, and fossil fuels represent an extraction of 1500 tonnes of raw materials per km2 land area4
Cross-country variability of biophysical and socio-economic characteristics
The 15 European Union member states vary significantly in terms of extensive variables, such as area, population, energy supply and national income (Table 2). Total land area varies by a factor 18, population by factor 22, GDP (at constant 1995 US$) by factor 25 and total primary energy supply by factor 24. The material flow indicator DMC varies somewhat less, by factor 16.
What about intensive variables? The variations of per capita national income (factor 3) and of primary energy supply per
National income and energy use as explanatory variables
A simple explanation for material consumption could be national income. The richer a country gets, the more materials it consumes. Across EU-15 countries per capita GDP (in constant 1995 US$) shows only weak correlation (Pearson coefficient 0.37) with per capita DMC in 2000. Environmental Kuznets Curve analyses of DMC for each of the EU-15 member states likewise provided no evidence for a strong relation between per capita DMC and per capita income in the EU-15 countries (Eurostat, 2002b).
What determines the quantity of biomass use?
Regarding its function for social metabolism, biomass, in providing food to sustain the human population, is the most fundamental of all socio-economic material flows. Biomass as raw material for food is virtually irreplaceable, thereby jeopardizing the common wisdom of weak sustainability, which allows for perfect substitution of natural and man made capital. The environmental relevance of biomass flows is to a large degree connected to the production phase. Agriculture is the most important
Piled everywhere but statistically neglected: construction minerals
The material consumption (DMC) in the EU-15 as a whole and in most of its member states is dominated by construction minerals (see Fig. 2). In 10 of the 14 EU countries construction minerals account for more than 40% of total DMC. Per capita amounts range from 4.3 t/cap in the United Kingdom to 18.4 t/cap in Finland, a variation by factor 4 (see Table 7).
It is important to note that the quality of the data for construction minerals is low compared to all other categories and uncertainties are
Industrial minerals and ores: key mobile ingredients of industrial production
Industrial minerals and ores are a heterogeneous group of materials comprising various types of ores and non-metallic minerals and derived products. Although we added a few complex products, which are predominantly made form metals or industrial minerals to this category, the quantity of these products is very small as compared to the quantity of the pure materials. The figures shown in Table 9 thus indicate the quantities of raw materials and basic commodities. DMC of industrial minerals and
Fossil fuels: weight and energy disparities
DMC of fossil fuels per capita ranges from 2.1 t/cap (France) to 8.0 t/cap (Greece), with an EU average of 3.7 t/cap (Table 10). The variability of fossil fuel consumption across countries (variation coefficient of 0.39) is almost as low as with food (variation coefficient of 0.31). Contrary, the domestic extraction of fossils is extremely variable (variation coefficient 1.08), a variability that is typical for point resources.
Most EU-15 countries extract only small amounts of fossil fuels per
Conclusions
Statistical measures of macro-characteristics of countries, be they economic, social or environmental, all face the same fundamental problems. (1) Finding ways to aggregate many elements of observed phenomena. These elements are not only highly diverse and non-comparable at one point but also change over time. (2) Finding a common denominator for cross-country comparisons. As we know from the discussions about GDP or the Human Developmental Index (HDI), there is no fully satisfactory solution
Acknowledgements
The research presented in this paper has profited from various projects funded by the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management. We are grateful to Martina Schuster and Caroline Vogel for their long standing support of material flow analysis in Austria. The MFA data set for the EU-15 was compiled for Eurostat and the European Commission as part of projects 2001/S 125-084782/EN and 200241200002. We thank former project coordinator Anton Steurer for numerous
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