Elsevier

Energy

Volume 35, Issue 11, November 2010, Pages 4289-4301
Energy

Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges, initiatives and policy implications

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.05.024Get rights and content

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of the initiatives launched in energy supply and consumption and the challenges encountered in sustainable road transportation development in China. It analyzes the main energy challenges related to road transportation development arising in the context of economic development, rapid urbanization, and improvement in living standards. It also discusses technological- and policy initiatives needed to deal with these challenges, drawing comparisons with foreign experience: promoting the development and dissemination of alternative fuels and clean vehicles such as: LPG, CNG, EV, HEV, FCV, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel, and CTL, strengthening regulations relating to vehicle fuel economy and emission, improving traffic efficiency and facilitating public transport development, and strengthening management of the soaring motor vehicle population. If the current pattern continues, by the year 2030, the vehicle population in China will be 400 million and fuel demand will be 350 million tons. The potential energy saving capacity being 60%, the actual oil demand by 2030 from on-road vehicles might technically be kept at the current level by improving fuel economy, propagating use of HEV and diesel vehicles, improving supply of alternative fuels, and developing public transport. Several uncertainties are identified that could greatly influence the effect of the technical proposals: traffic efficiency, central government's resolve, and consumers' choice.

Introduction

China has become a net oil importing country since 1993, and is currently the second largest energy consumer in the world. Oil consumption reached 346 million tons in 2007, at a rate of increase of 61% compared with 2000. Oil importation has made up approximately 46% of the total oil consumption. China share of world total oil consumption is about 9%, though from 2000 it was responsible for 30.3% of the new addition to worldwide oil consumption.

As in most other countries in the world, oil demand in China is being driven by transportation. Along with economic development and rapid urbanization, transportation has grown to become one of China's fastest growing economic sectors. Since 2000, China has witnessed a 156% increase in total motor vehicle stock (2000–2007), 51% increase in passenger traffic volume (2000–2007), and 65% increase in freight traffic volume (2000–2007). Because of the rapid expansion, particularly the soaring motor vehicle stock, the road transport sector has become a dominant factor in China's transportation system. According to recent studies, from 2000 onwards, oil consumption of the road transport sector has risen at an average annual rate of 9.6%. About 85% of gasoline and 42% of diesel consumed is by motor vehicles. Furthermore, it has been recognized that emission from motor vehicles has contributed significantly to urban air quality degradation; 80% of CO and 40% of NOx in the country's big cities come from motor vehicle emission [1]. In this regard, along with the traffic jams and concerns over rapidly increasing urban road transport sustainable development of road transport has become the crucial problem for most of China's cities.

Sustainable road transportation means to efficiently satisfy the natural- and reasonable mobility demands of society to the utmost extent at the least possible social-, economical-, environmental-, and resource cost, and realize harmonious development with other social- and economic sectors. Sustainable road transportation systems might differ among different areas at different periods with different resource contributions and different environment constraints. For most of China's current big cities, priority development of public transportation might be the most important measure to realize sustainable road transportation. Accordingly, sustainable road transportation energy means to satisfy effectively the energy demand from a sustainable road transportation system at the least social-, economical-, environmental- and resource cost. Where resource scarcity is concerned, energy is one of the most important resource constraints not only for road transportation but also for all the social sectors. A trip itself is a derived demand of ontic social activity, and so is the energy needed for the trip. An ontic demand could be satisfied by different ways, and therefore, derived demand can be re-organized and adjusted. A sustainable road transportation energy system is not the same as passively supplying enough energy to meet all the energy demands from the road transport sector; it is to reduce the composite social-, economic-, environmental-, and resource cost in the energy demand satisfaction process through actively organizing and optimizing transportation related activities of the whole of society. To achieve sustainable targets, it is important to try to reduce energy consumption in transportation activity through effective trip management and improvement in traffic management, develop alternative energy and new energy for vehicles, and mitigate social-, economic-, environmental-, and resource impact resulting from energy consumption.

To address resource- and environment constraints on social- and economic development, China is now actively promoting energy saving and sustainable mobility through the whole country. Energy- and transportation are closely linked but differ from and sometimes even conflict with one another in some aspects. This study is an effort to look at sustainable road transportation development in terms of energy consumption and environmental management in the context of China, with an emphasis on investigating the major challenges and/or consequences, and discussing policy initiatives to deal with these challenges based on international experiences.

This paper first presents an overview of China's road transportation development and energy consumption over the past few decades. The following section analyzes the main energy- and environmental challenges such as energy security, low efficiency, and environmental issues that China faces. Section 4 discusses technological- and policy interventions and their consequences in detail, which includes promoting alternative fuels and clean vehicles, improving fuel economy, strengthening emission control and management of private vehicles, improving traffic systems, and facilitating urban public transportation. The conclusions highlight the issues requiring policy change and adjustment.

Section snippets

Road transportation development and energy consumption

Since China adopted its economic reform policy in the early 1980s, its cities have gained great development momentum while the economy has kept up an average annual growth rate of 9.6%. The number of cities in China has reached 660 with an urbanization level of about 43%, compared with 17.9% in 1978. Rapid urbanization has become a trend in the backdrop of the social development accompanying economic development. Driven by rapid economic growth, improvement in living standards and sustained

Energy security

According to WEO2007, China's total oil consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5%—higher than any other country in the world—and reach 1152 million tce in 2030. Total transportation energy use is projected to rise by more than 396 million tons from 2004 to 2030, and transportation's share of the total use of liquids from 32% in 2004 to 47% by 2030. Road vehicles are projected to account for nearly 70% of the increase. Air-, rail-, and marine transportation modes account,

Policy initiatives and implications

Energy and environment have become the critical problems faced by all countries throughout the world. China is on the path of rapid social- and economic development, and the energy- and environment problems have, therefore, gained particular importance. Among all the social- and economic issues, energy- and environment factors in the road transportation sector, though currently small, receive top priority for their far-reaching impact and, therefore, highest marginal return, on energy security

Conclusions

In the current motorization pattern underway in China, there will be a striking increase in vehicle stock and on-road vehicle fuel demand. By 2030, the total vehicle population might be 400 million (including 150 million motorcycles and rural vehicles), and the fuel demand 350 million tons. At the same time, with domestic oil production declining gradually, by 2030, the aggregate domestic oil production would not satisfy half the total on-road vehicle demand.

China is now putting in great effort to

Acknowledgments

This paper is based on a key project of NSFC (90410016). The authors greatly acknowledge the financial support from NSFC and the support of Tsinghua University Sustainable Urban Mobility Project (SUMO). In addition, the authors are grateful for the support of the Institute of Low Carbon Economy, Tsinghua University, for this work.

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