Elsevier

Energy

Volume 52, 1 April 2013, Pages 339-352
Energy

Methodology to estimate the energy flows of the European Union heating and cooling market

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.062Get rights and content

Abstract

Over 40% of the total energy consumed in Europe is used for the generation of heat for either domestic or industrial purposes. Meanwhile, the demand for cooling is steadily increasing in all European Member State. In this context, it is essential to identify the heating and cooling demand in the economic sectors. The objective of this study is to propose a methodology to estimate the European heating and cooling demand by country, fuel, economical subsector and activity based on official statistics and reports from resource origin to the customer. The results show that most useful heat energy comes from the direct burn of a fuel principally natural gas. The contribution of the electricity is relatively moderate for the residential and service sectors but low for industrial sector. Most part of the cooling demand is generated by electrical cooling machines (air conditioning and chillers) which extract free environmental energy allowing compensate part of the losses from the electricity production. District heating has a moderate contribution and district cooling can be considered negligible.

Highlights

► European heat and cooling market. ► A methodology based on public statistics and reports. ► The use of renewable could reduce the primary energy consumption. ► Relevance of heat pumps to reduce the energy consumption.

Introduction

Every year, over 40% of the total energy consumed in Europe is used for the generation of heat for either domestic or industrial purposes [1]. According to the use, the heat is supplied in different temperatures, ranging from 50 °C to more than 400 °C. Demand for medium (100–400 °C) and high (>400 °C) temperatures appear mainly within the different processes found in the industrial sector. Meanwhile, the heat supplied in the residential and service sectors is mainly low temperature and it is related to space heating, production of domestic hot water and cooking [2]. Meanwhile, the demand for cooling is steadily increasing in all European Member State (MSs) [3]. Nevertheless, it remains unknown exactly how much energy is utilised for cooling purposes. In fact, only one study has been developed to analyse the cooling demand in European Union (EU) country level covering just the residential and service sectors [2]. In that respect, the European Commission, through the Renewable Energy Source (RES) Directive, highlights the potential of technologies based on renewable energy sources together with high-efficiency energy technologies, (e.g. cogeneration systems) to contribute in the reduction of the primary energy consumption and the emissions greenhouse gases, and the increase in energy efficiency, and cover the heating and cooling energy demand in the MSs [4], [5]. Furthermore, this directive goes in line to promote the EU Climate & Energy objectives for 2020, namely the so-called 20-20-20 target, and the EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95% by 2050 compared to 1990, as described in the Roadmap 2050 [6]. According to the Energy Roadmap, shifting energy consumption towards low carbon electricity (including heat pumps and storage heaters) and renewable energy (e.g. solar heating, biogas, biomass), also provided through district heating systems, would help to protect consumers against rising fossil fuel prices and bring significant health benefits.

In this context, it is essential to identify the heating and cooling demand in the domestic, services and industrial sectors in each MS. Nevertheless, there is limited available information about the heating and cooling market because the statistics typically measure the fuel which is purchased by the customer instead of calculating directly the heating or cooling demand [7]. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the amount of fuel which is consumed for heating or cooling purposes together with the technologies deployed in each sector. Apart from identifying the heating and cooling demands from the side of the customer, it is also essential to identify the energy consumption from the resource size and the energy mix that is utilised to supply the energy to the customer [8]. This is fundamental for electricity production and district heating and cooling systems, where the production of the energy can come from several and different energy sources like conventional fuels or non-conventional fuels (municipality waste), and renewable sources [9], [10].

The objective of this study is to propose and apply a methodology to estimate the EU heating and cooling energy demand for the residential, service and industrial sectors based on official statistics and reports. The estimation of the heating and cooling demand is done at country level and for the residential, service and industrial sector of every country, evaluating demand from the customer side (useful energy) and the resource side (primary energy). These data are used to estimate the EU27 heating and cooling demand. Each sector is categorised in several sub-sectors, and the calculated useful energy is split by customer end-use category, in order to identify the characteristics of EU heating and cooling market.

The choice of subsectors and end use categories was based on similar published studies [2], [7], [11], [12], [13]. The residential and service sectors are split in three (Single-family houses, Multi-family houses and High-rises) and six (Hospitals, Hotels & Restaurants, Sport & Recreation, Small shops, Large shops and Offices) sub-sectors respectively. Both sectors have the same three end-use categories (space heating, water heating and space cooling). The industrial sector is split into eleven subsectors (Iron & Steel, Non-ferrous metals, Chemical, Non-metallic mineral products, Ore extraction, Food, drink & tobacco, Textile leather & clothing, Pulp & Paper, Transport equipments, Machinery and Other industries) and three types of end use categories, according to the different quality of heat supplied (low: lower than 100 °C, medium: between 100 °C and 400 °C and high: grater than 400 °C).

Section 2, the Heating and cooling market in the European Union, describes the characteristics and the mechanisms of the heating and cooling market in the European Union. Section 3, the Methodology, the methodology employed to characterize the heating and cooling market of the European Union is explained. Section 4, the Simulation results and discussion, presents and analyses the main results. Finally, Section 5, the conclusions, summarises the main conclusions of this work.

Section snippets

Heating and cooling market in the European Union

In this section, an overview of the current heating and cooling market in the EU 27 is presented. The sub-sector breakdown and the main heating and cooling end uses for each of the sector is analysed.

Methodology

In this section the methodology to estimate the primary and useful energy consumption by fuel of the heating and cooling market including the secondary energies, such electricity and derived fuels, is proposed.

The methodology proposed here is oriented to be a methodology which allows identifying the energy flows for each specific activity in each EU27 country. The information to characterise each sector to estimate the heating and cooling demand is scattered among various official sources such

Results and discussion

Sankey diagrams of the EU27 heating and cooling demand for the residential, service and industrial sectors following the explained methodology are presented in this section. These diagrams allow visualizing the different transformation and losses which take place from primary energy to useful energy consumed by the customer.

Fig. 6 shows the Sankey diagram of the heat demand in the EU27 residential sector. The primary energy demand is estimated around 12,984 PJ to satisfy 8788 PJ of useful

Conclusions

A methodology to estimate the EU heating and cooling energy demand for the residential, service and industrial sectors based on official statistics and reports have been presented. The estimation of the heating and cooling demand is done for the residential, service and industrial sector at country level and, evaluating demand from the resource side (primary energy) to the customer side (useful energy).

In the heat market, most part of the useful energy comes from the direct burn of a fuel where

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    The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.

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