Elsevier

Energy Policy

Volume 36, Issue 2, February 2008, Pages 730-742
Energy Policy

The sustainability challenge of meeting carbon dioxide targets in Europe by 2020

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.10.007Get rights and content

Abstract

Following the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union obligated itself to lower its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 20% below their 1990 level, by the year 2020. Carbon dioxide is the major GHG. To fulfil this obligation, the nations must meet the sustainability challenge of countering rising population plus affluence with the dematerialization of less energy per GDP plus the decarbonization of less carbon per energy. To test the feasibility of meeting the challenge, we analysed carbon dioxide emission during 1993–2004. Although emissions in the entire Union grew only by an average of 0.31% per year, emissions and their drivers varied markedly among the 27 member states. Dematerialization and decarbonization did occur, but not enough to offset the slight population growth plus rapidly increasing affluence. To fulfil its obligation in the next 12 years, the EU27 would have to counter its increasing population and affluence by a combined dematerialization and decarbonization 1.9–2.6 times faster than during 1993–2004. Hence, fulfilling its obligation by addressing fossil carbon emissions alone is very unlikely.

Introduction

Human-inflicted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have caused most of the temperature rise since the middle of the 20th century. Temperatures are expected to further increase (IPCC, 2007). In 1996, the European commission recommended that rise in global temperature should be limited to 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. In March 2007, the EU Prime Ministers agreed upon a post-Kyoto target, a commitment of a 20% reduction of GHG emissions during 1990–2020. On the condition that other countries also commit to reductions, they agreed that the EU countries should reduce GHG emissions by 30% for the period. However, specific details on how the common reduction burden would be shared between member states should still be decided. Also, it has not been decided how the mitigation measures will address CO2, other GHGs and land cover sinks. The CO2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels are responsible for approximately three-quarters of all GHG emissions.

Currently, the European Union consists of 27 member states that altogether account for approximately 16% of global CO2 emissions (EIA, 2007; EEA, 2007). The enlargement of the European Union is only one of the profound historical changes that have shaken the continent over the past two decades. In the early 1990s, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the dissolution of the iron curtain and the war in former Yugoslavia transformed the map of Europe.

This study looks at European CO2 emissions during 1993–2004 and includes in the analysis all current 27 member states, here referred to as EU27. In the early 1990s the union only comprised 12 countries. Austria, Finland and Sweden entered the Union in 1995. Later, in 2004, the Union expanded again as Cyprus, Malta and eight Central and East European countries entered the EU. Finally, the EU attained its current form, when Romania and Bulgaria joined the community in 2007. In this case, it is practical to treat the European Union as two separate entities: the 15 old member states, which committed themselves to the Kyoto protocol as one group, hereafter referred to as EU15,1 and the 12 more recent arrivals, hereafter referred to as New Member States, or NMS12.2

The total population of EU27 nations in 2004 was estimated at approximately 486 million (Eurostat, 2007a). At the same time, real GDP measured in constant prices (year 2000 international dollars as reported in the Penn World Table, Heston et al., 2007) was approximately $1.06×1013 (10.6 trillion), or around $21,800 per capita. In 2004, total energy consumption was approximately 1170 MToe (EEA, 2007).

The total CO2 emissions within the region, excluding land use and land use change, amounted to approximately 1172 teragrams (Tg) of carbon in 2004. In 1990, EU27 states emitted 1207 Tg of C, but the emissions declined markedly by year 1993 to 1126 Tg. For the rest of the decade the annual emissions remained fairly constant, but in the beginning of the new millennium, however, regional emissions quickly rebounded. During the years 1990–2004, total GHG emissions in EU15 countries decreased in most sectors, especially waste management, industrial processes and agriculture (EEA, 2006). Although over the same period of time EU15 transport emissions continued to grow (+26% altogether), GHG emissions caused by energy consumption (excluding transport) decreased by 2%.

We examine the contribution of changing population, income, consumption and technology to observed changes in national CO2 emissions within EU27 over the years 1993–2004, referred to below as the “study period”. The numerical analyses of this study refer to CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial processes. We apply population scenarios up to the year 2020 as prepared by Eurostat and develop simple economic scenarios in order to estimate a baseline for the required improvements in dematerialization and decarbonization given the EU target of −20% cut by 2020. We ask, what kind of improvements in energy and carbon intensity are required in EU27 in order to reach a reduction of 20% in CO2 emissions by 2020, and how do the requirements compare to the respective historical improvements as observed. Finally, we discuss the results in relation to opportunities to address other GHGs and land cover sinks within EU27 countries.

Section snippets

Materials and methods

We use the ImPACT model to decompose CO2 emissions in our analysis (Waggoner and Ausubel, 2002). It is a simple mathematical identity used for describing and predicting the effects of changes in population, affluence, technology, and the intensity of consumption on change in the environment. ImPACT is a reformulation of the IPAT model, first introduced by Ehrlich and Holdren (1971).

Variants of IPAT and ImPACT have been used e.g. by Cole and Neumayer (2004) to estimate the population elasticity

Development of emissions 1993–2004

Between 1993 and 2004, CO2 emissions in EU27 increased from 1126 Tg of C to 1172 Tg of C, annually on average by 0.31% (Fig. 1, Appendix B, Appendix C). Affluence (A) in EU27 grew on average +2.22% per year and was the strongest driver. Population (P) also grew slightly, with its growth rate averaging +0.23% per year. Changes in the intensity of use (energy/GDP) and in intensity of emissions (CO2/energy) had a reducing impact on emissions, on average −1.46% and −0.67% per year, respectively.

While

Discussion

Both the theory of climate change mitigation and policy and management applications rely on “efficiency” and “substitution” logic (Robèrt et al., 2002; World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2000; Schmidheiny, 1992; Welford, 1998). An estimation of “sustainability challenge” is a common approach in evaluating the stringency of environmental goals and targets. It refers to the smallest required improvement in C and T to compensate the environmental impact of growing population and

Conclusions

Fossil emissions of CO2 did not change much in Europe in 1993–2004, even though the development of emissions and their drivers varied markedly between member states of the European Union. Changes in the consumers’ intensity of use (energy/GDP) and technologists’ intensity of emissions (CO2/energy) had a negative impact on emissions, on average −1.46% and −0.67%/year, respectively. However, affluence grew on average 2.22%/year, and population by 0.23%/year, more than offsetting the efficiency

Acknowledgements

This study was conducted in conjunction with the project IFEE (Indicator Framework for Eco-Efficiency), which was funded by the Academy of Finland. We gratefully thank Paul E. Waggoner, Gregg Marland and Laura Sokka and Jouni Korhonen for comments on the earlier version of this paper.

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