Energy demand forecast for mechanized agriculture in rural India

Abstract

Though India has done well in agricultural development, the state of Assam in the northeastern region needs special attention for agricultural development to address several socio-economic issues and is a typical example of economically backward rural India. Agricultural development aiming at higher production would require mechanization and supply of sufficient energy is a prerequisite for mechanized agriculture. Rice is the major crop of Assam and the mechanization is at a nascent stage. The energy demand and supply scenarios with reference to some prospective mechanization strategies for rice crop are investigated in this study. Four strategic scenarios of mechanization including a baseline scenario incorporating some proven technologies are designed to assess the energy demands. The result of the analysis indicated that the demand for diesel would increase by more than 200% with an associated decrease in manpower by more than 80% and also 100% reduction of bullock power. The “availability index”, which is the ratio of available human workers to its critical demand, indicated insufficiency of required human workers in almost all agro-climatic zones of Assam justifying the need for mechanization. Economic analysis considering the prevailing rate of input commodities also favors agricultural mechanization in Assam.

Introduction

Energy has an influencing role in the development of key sectors of economic importance such as industry, transport and agriculture. This has motivated many researchers to focus their research on energy management. Energy has been a key input of agriculture since the age of subsistence agriculture. It is an established fact worldwide that agricultural production is positively correlated with energy input (Singh, 1999). This has also been reflected in Indian agriculture. The green revolution accelerated the growth of farm mechanization vis-à-vis energy input and resulting productivity in India. But the scenario is not uniform throughout the country. There has been a great variation in the level of mechanization vis-à-vis the level of energy input amongst the regions.

The state of Assam, located in the northeastern part of India, has remained rural, agriculture being the main occupation in the rural areas. This is one of the economically backward states of India (Anonymous, 2005). On the basis of agro-climatic parameters, the state is divided into six agro-climatic zones. Nearly 76% of the state's population depends on agriculture and allied occupations for their livelihood and about 74% of the total labor force of the state is engaged in agriculture (Bhattacharyya et al., 2001). In spite of having abundant favorable natural resources for crop production, the productivity level in the state is low. It is reported that the productivity of rice, which is a major crop of the state, is about 29% lower than the national average and 72% lower than that of the most developed state in the country, Punjab (Bhattacharyya et al., 2001; Mustafa, 2002). This lower level of productivity is due to lower level of inputs (Singh, 1999) and also due to lack of mechanization.

Rice cultivation is one of the major economic activities, and improving the productivity of rice crop and rational use of inputs may lead to a boost in the economy of the state. This will require a suitable mechanization program. With rice primarily being a wetland crop, not many machines had been used earlier (Bora and Hansen, 2007). However, an in-depth analysis—aiming to boost rice crop production through prospective mechanization—is a prerequisite for any such attempt of mechanization.

Properly planned mechanization could enhance crop productivity with economic uses of precious energy resources. There have been some specific studies showing the impact of mechanization on rice productivity (Arora et al., 2006; Chauhan et al., 2006; Baruah and Dutta, 2007). Arora et al. (2006) reported adverse effects of inadequate land preparation, inadequate irrigation and delayed transplanting on rice productivity while analyzing the results of a study of rice production in Punjab (India). According to their study, rice yield was declined up to 0.5 ton/ha due to delayed transplanting. The lack of mechanization is one of the causes of such delays in transplanting rice seedlings. Similar reductions were also reported due to inadequate land preparation and irrigation. In another study concerning energy management in rice cultivation in West Bengal state of India, Chauhan et al. (2006) reported that better use of power tillers and introduction of improved machinery could improve the efficiency of energy use and thereby improve the energy productivity of rice production system. Baruah and Dutta (2007) while investigating the energy use in relation to yield of rice in Assam (India) obtained similar results. Their study investigated 576 rice farms belonging to both non-mechanized and mechanized categories in Assam (India). The rice yield of mechanized farms was more than that of the non-mechanized farm. A positive correlation of the commercial energy input and rice yield was also reported by the study (commercial energy requirements increase due to increased level of mechanization).

Mechanization brings technological changes and due to the technological changes, the resource demand would also change in comparison to the non-mechanization scenario. For example, introduction of power-driven machinery in place of manual and animal-powered implements would increase the demand of resources like machinery and diesel.

Cost of operation is another important deciding factor for selection of mechanization options. There are several technological (machine type, nature and frequency of maintenance requirements, etc.) and economical parameters (rate of interest on investment, insurance, taxes, etc.) that influence the operational cost of machinery. Several standard norms are available for estimating the cost of farm operations. In India, the guidelines provided by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) for estimation of cost of farm operations are practiced and, therefore, these guidelines are used for assessment of operational costs.

The cost analysis can indicate the relative economic merits of mechanization options. In addition to cost estimation, forecasting of resource demands is also essential for strategic planning of farm mechanization. Forecasting is helpful for planning as well as for policy assessment. In a multi-sector economy, where there prevails competition for precious energy resources amongst different sectors like industry, transport, services and agriculture, rational forecast of energy demand helps to plan and thus supports unimpeded growth of a sector. Agriculture in Assam critically needs development. Mechanization is one of the essential inputs of agricultural development. In view of the above, the present study is undertaken with the following objectives:

• To assess the demand of energy resources for mechanized rice cultivation in the state of Assam in India.

• To investigate the cost of farm operations with regard to some selected mechanization options.

• To test the adequacy of locally available human resources to support higher rice production without causing timeliness penalty in different agro-climatic zones of the state.