Renewable and nuclear power: A common future?

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.06.024

Energy Policy

Volume 36, Issue 11, November 2008, Pages 4036-4047

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.06.024 Get rights and content

Abstract

Nuclear power and renewable energy are the main options to bring down the carbon intensity of commercial energy supply. What technology is unlimited backstop supply depends on its performance on the sustainability criteria: democratic decided, globally accessible, environmental benign, low risk, affordable.

Renewable power meets all criteria, with affordability under debate. Maximizing energy efficiency as prerequisite, the affordable sustainable option in fact is the twin efficiency/renewable power. Nuclear power falls short on the sustainability criteria and its public acceptance is low. Nuclear proponents now propose nuclear and renewable energy as a suitable couple to address the climate change challenge. The two antagonists however are mutually exclusive on the five major directions of future power systems. First, nuclear power has been architect of the expansive “business-as-usual” energy economy since the 1950s. Second, add-on by fossil-fuelled power plants is bulky and expansive for nuclear power, but is distributed, flexible and contracting over time for renewable power. Third, power grids for spreading bulky nuclear outputs are other than the interconnection between millions of distributed power sources requires. Fourth, risks and externalities and the proper technology itself of nuclear power limit its development perspectives, while efficiency/renewable power are still in their infancy. Fifth, their stalemate for R&D resources and for production capacities will intensify. Nuclear power and renewable power have no common future in safeguarding “Our Common Future”.

Introduction

The fourth assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007, January, April, May, November) and the Stern Review (Stern, 2006, October) confirmed that climate change is steadily growing into a major threat to the essential life-support systems of our world and of our way of life.

To keep the threatening dynamics of climate change within the human scope of control, it is necessary to slow down the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphe re. Over the last 650,000 years, the CO₂ concentration in the earth's atmosphere never surpassed 300 ppm. Following the exponential growth in fossil fuel use and land clearing, accompanying CO₂ emissions have risen. The built-up concentration climbed from the pre-industrial 280 ppm level to 379 ppm in 2005 (IPCC, 2007). To respect a +2 °C ceiling in temperature increase compared to pre-industrial averages, the EU wants to limit the concentration around 450 ppm. Stern (2006) focuses on a stabilization at 550 ppm CO₂-eq (i.e. including the other greenhouse gases too), which is not very different from the 450 ppm CO₂ target (IPCC 2007, WGIII, Table SPM.5). The 550 ppm CO₂-eq is considered as far too risky by environmental NGOs and by other observers (Baer, 2006). To reach the stated concentration targets, emissions must be reduced urgently and drastically (Stern, 2006, Fig. 3; IPCC 2007, WGIII, Figure SPM7). The emission reduction obligation fuels hope for promoting renewable energy. Others see it as an opportunity to level barriers for a third chance of nuclear power commercialization.

In Section 1 the driving forces of carbon emissions are highlighted, focusing on energy intensity and carbon intensity as the two technical drivers that energy policy can address. In Section 2 the four main contenders for meeting the electric power needs of the future are discussed. Nuclear power and renewable power are assessed on the basis of criteria of a sustainable backstop supply technology. In Section 3 it is shown that the two options are antagonists and mutually exclusive in five major developments of future power systems.

Section snippets

Driving forces of carbon emissions

Ehrlich and Holdren (1971) described Impact on the environment as the product of Population×Affluence×Technology. For carbon emissions (globally, by continent, by country, etc.) a hybrid identity is used:

Total carbon emissions=Population×Affluence×Energy Intensity×Carbon intensity or $Total carbon emissions = \sum Population \times \frac{Euros}{Person} \times \frac{Joules}{Euros} \times \frac{Carbon emission}{Joule}$

Although the assumption of independency among the factors is not evident, the rate of emission changes is written as the sum of the change

Contenders for the future supply of electricity

The future supply of electricity mainly depends on fossil fuel use, nuclear power, renewable sources and electricity efficiency. In Section 3.1 their interconnections are briefly described. The three supply options are scanned in Section 3.2. The criteria of backstop supply technology are much wider than just the property of being unlimited. Nuclear power (in Section 3.3) and renewable power (in Section 3.4) are evaluated on the broader set of sustainability criteria.

Nuclear and renewable power are opposites

Nuclear advocates today have changed their communication strategy. Presently, the basic position is “nuclear power is but part of the solution; but there is no solution without nuclear power”. This is more acceptable to a broader audience than the pre-Chernobyl vantage of nuclear power resolving the energy scarcity. A minority EU citizenship supports nuclear power to be a valid option (Eurobarometer, 2007). People considering nuclear still as an acceptable option state that nuclear has to

Conclusion

For realizing a low carbon electricity supply, there are not a thousand options. Only two antagonists are now in the ring: nuclear power and the twin efficiency/renewable power. What could be the ultimate backstop power generation technology? First the ‘unlimited source’ aspect of the backstop supply technology has to be extended with the criteria of sustainability (WCED, 1987). On the sustainability balance, the performance of nuclear power weighs very light (Table 2), contrary to

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¹: Full professor at the University of Antwerp ([email protected]). Thanks to an anonymous reviewer's positive comments, many arguments were clarified and the language more balanced.

View full text

Renewable and nuclear power: A common future?

Abstract

Introduction

Section snippets

Driving forces of carbon emissions

Contenders for the future supply of electricity

Nuclear and renewable power are opposites

Conclusion

Intertemporal equity, discounting, and economic efficiency

The Worth of an Ice Sheet

White Paper on the Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Nuclear Power is Not the Answer

Belgium's Energy Challenges Towards 2030, Preliminary Report

The administrative obstacles to the development of decentralised cogeneration. SAVE Programme Report

Risk Assessment Methods. Approaches for Assessing Health and Environmental Risks

Ecological Economics and the Ecology of Economics. Essays in Criticism

Global challenges in energy

Energy Policy

Impact of population growth

Science

Energy [R]Evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook

Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market, COM (2002) 415 final

World energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030—WETO

Directive 2004/8/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 on the promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market and amending Directive 92/42/EEC

Technology and social visions for Europe's energy future: a Europe-wide Delphi Study

Report on the Regular Opinion Polls of Citizens in the EU Member States

A Time to Choose: America's Energy Future

The EU's Energy Support Programmes: Promoting Sustainability or Pollution?

Management of Low Voltage Grids with High Penetration of Distributed Generation, NEEDS Workshop

The experience with energy efficiency policies and programmes in IEA countries

The Costa and Impacts of Intermittency: An Assessment of the Evidence on the Costs and Impacts of Intermittent Generation on the British Electricity Network

Scenarios for a robust policy mix: the final report of the German study commission on sustainable energy supply

Energy Policy

Die Energiewende ist möglich

Energy Technology Perspectives. Scenarios and Strategies to 2050