Renewable and nuclear power: A common future?
Introduction
The fourth assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007, January, April, May, November) and the Stern Review (Stern, 2006, October) confirmed that climate change is steadily growing into a major threat to the essential life-support systems of our world and of our way of life.
To keep the threatening dynamics of climate change within the human scope of control, it is necessary to slow down the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphe re. Over the last 650,000 years, the CO2 concentration in the earth's atmosphere never surpassed 300 ppm. Following the exponential growth in fossil fuel use and land clearing, accompanying CO2 emissions have risen. The built-up concentration climbed from the pre-industrial 280 ppm level to 379 ppm in 2005 (IPCC, 2007). To respect a +2 °C ceiling in temperature increase compared to pre-industrial averages, the EU wants to limit the concentration around 450 ppm. Stern (2006) focuses on a stabilization at 550 ppm CO2-eq (i.e. including the other greenhouse gases too), which is not very different from the 450 ppm CO2 target (IPCC 2007, WGIII, Table SPM.5). The 550 ppm CO2-eq is considered as far too risky by environmental NGOs and by other observers (Baer, 2006). To reach the stated concentration targets, emissions must be reduced urgently and drastically (Stern, 2006, Fig. 3; IPCC 2007, WGIII, Figure SPM7). The emission reduction obligation fuels hope for promoting renewable energy. Others see it as an opportunity to level barriers for a third chance of nuclear power commercialization.
In Section 1 the driving forces of carbon emissions are highlighted, focusing on energy intensity and carbon intensity as the two technical drivers that energy policy can address. In Section 2 the four main contenders for meeting the electric power needs of the future are discussed. Nuclear power and renewable power are assessed on the basis of criteria of a sustainable backstop supply technology. In Section 3 it is shown that the two options are antagonists and mutually exclusive in five major developments of future power systems.
Section snippets
Driving forces of carbon emissions
Ehrlich and Holdren (1971) described Impact on the environment as the product of Population×Affluence×Technology. For carbon emissions (globally, by continent, by country, etc.) a hybrid identity is used:
Total carbon emissions=Population×Affluence×Energy Intensity×Carbon intensity or
Although the assumption of independency among the factors is not evident, the rate of emission changes is written as the sum of the change
Contenders for the future supply of electricity
The future supply of electricity mainly depends on fossil fuel use, nuclear power, renewable sources and electricity efficiency. In Section 3.1 their interconnections are briefly described. The three supply options are scanned in Section 3.2. The criteria of backstop supply technology are much wider than just the property of being unlimited. Nuclear power (in Section 3.3) and renewable power (in Section 3.4) are evaluated on the broader set of sustainability criteria.
Nuclear and renewable power are opposites
Nuclear advocates today have changed their communication strategy. Presently, the basic position is “nuclear power is but part of the solution; but there is no solution without nuclear power”. This is more acceptable to a broader audience than the pre-Chernobyl vantage of nuclear power resolving the energy scarcity. A minority EU citizenship supports nuclear power to be a valid option (Eurobarometer, 2007). People considering nuclear still as an acceptable option state that nuclear has to
Conclusion
For realizing a low carbon electricity supply, there are not a thousand options. Only two antagonists are now in the ring: nuclear power and the twin efficiency/renewable power. What could be the ultimate backstop power generation technology? First the ‘unlimited source’ aspect of the backstop supply technology has to be extended with the criteria of sustainability (WCED, 1987). On the sustainability balance, the performance of nuclear power weighs very light (Table 2), contrary to
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Full professor at the University of Antwerp ([email protected]). Thanks to an anonymous reviewer's positive comments, many arguments were clarified and the language more balanced.