Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade☆
Introduction
Understanding the dynamics of stock returns is an issue of ongoing research in financial market literature. In particular, identifying the factors that drive stock market returns is of utmost relevance and importance to investors and policy makers. Although an abundance of theoretical and empirical works focused on asset pricing, there is no consensus about both the nature and number of factors of stock returns. Furthermore, as oil price has changed with sequences of very large increases and decreases over recent years, it is now quite opportune to augment the existing research on its impacts on stock market returns. Various transmission channels exist through which oil price fluctuations may affect stock returns. Indeed, the value of stock in theory equals discounted sum of expected future cash-flows. These discounted cash-flows reflect economic conditions (e.g., inflation, interest rates, production costs, income, economic growth, and investor and consumer confidence) and macroeconomic events that are likely to be influenced by oil shocks. Accordingly, oil price changes may impact stock returns.
In the literature, there has been a large volume of works on the linkages between oil prices and economic variables. The majority of these studies have shown significant effects of oil price fluctuations on economic activity for several developed and emerging countries (Hamilton, 2003, Cunado and Perez de Garcia, 2005, Balaz and Londarev, 2006, Lardic and Mignon, 2008, Gronwald, 2008, Cologni and Manera, 2008, Kilian, 2008). By contrast, there have been relatively a few attempts to study the dynamic relationship between oil price variations and stock markets.
The pioneering paper by Jones and Kaul (1996) tests the reaction of stock returns in four developed markets (Canada, Japan, the UK, and the US) to oil price fluctuations on the basis of the standard cash-flow dividend valuation model. They find that for the US and Canada stock market reaction can be accounted for entirely by the impact of oil shocks on cash flows. The results for Japan and the UK were nevertheless inconclusive. Using an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, Huang et al. (1996) find no evidence of a relationship between oil prices and the S&P500 market index. Inversely, Sadorsky (1999) also applies an unrestricted VAR model with GARCH effects to American monthly data and shows a significant relationship between oil price changes and US aggregate stock returns. Park and Ratti (2008) show that oil price increases have a negative impact on stock returns in the US and twelve European countries, whereas stock markets in Norway, an oil-exporting country, respond positively to rises of oil price. In a more recent study, Apergis and Miller (2009) also examine whether structural oil-market shocks affect stock returns in eight developed countries, and document no significant responses of international stock market returns to oil price shocks.
Very few studies have looked at the impact of oil price changes on the stocks of individual sectors. In addition, most of these studies are country-specific and therefore do not provide a global perspective. For instance, Sadorsky (2001) and Boyer and Filion (2007) show that oil price increases lead to higher stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies. El-Sharif et al. (2005) reach the same conclusion when analyzing oil and gas returns in the UK. However, the authors note that non-oil and gas sectors are weakly linked to oil price changes. More recently, Nandha and Faff (2008) study the short-term link between oil prices and thirty-five Datastream global industries and report that oil price rises have a negative impact on all, but not the oil and gas industries. Finally, Nandha and Brooks (2009) look into the reaction of the transport sector to oil prices in thirty-eight countries and find that, in developed economies, oil prices have some influence on the returns of the sector under consideration. There is however no evidence of a significant role for oil price changes in Asian and Latin American countries. Taken together, the results from the available works on the relationships between oil price changes and sector stock returns are inconclusive and differ from country to country.
The current article extends the understanding of the relationship between oil price changes and stock returns at the disaggregated sector level in Europe by investigating their short-term linkages over the last turbulent decade using different econometric techniques. Over this decade of globally increasing oil prices, the responses of stock markets to oil price changes are ambiguous. Indeed, on the one hand increases in oil prices translate into higher transportation, production, and heating costs, which can put a drag on corporate earnings. Rising oil prices can also stir up concerns about inflation and curtail consumers’ discretionary spending. On the other hand, investors can also associate increasing oil prices with a booming economy. Thus, higher oil prices could reflect stronger business performance.
It is equally important to note that studying the short-term effects of oil price fluctuations at sector level instead of aggregate market level is important for several reasons. First, any market-wide consequence may hide the performance, not necessarily uniform, of various economic sectors. Further, sector sensitivities to changes in oil price can be asymmetric to the extent that some sectors may be more severely affected by these changes than the others. The degree to which a sector is more or less sensitive to oil depend upon whether oil serves as its input or output, its exposure to the indirect oil effects, its degree of competition and concentration, and its capacity to absorb and transfer oil price risk to its consumers. Second, the industrial base varies from one European market to another. Large and mature markets such as France and Germany are more diversified, whereas small markets such as Switzerland usually concentrate on a few industries. Thus, the results of studies based on national stock market indices such as Park and Ratti (2008) and Apergis and Miller (2009) should be considered with precaution. An important and interesting issue then consists of examining how different sector market indices rather than national market indices react to oil price fluctuations. Finally, indentifying the heterogeneity of sector sensitivities to oil has important implications for portfolio risk management since some sectors may still provide a meaningful channel for international diversification during large swings in oil prices.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the data and some preliminary analysis. Section 3 reports and discusses the empirical results. Section 4 focuses on some out-of-sample forecasting evaluations and portfolio implications of empirical results. Summary and conclusions are provided in Section 5.
Section snippets
Data and preliminary analysis
We investigate the relationships between oil prices and stock returns in Europe from a sector perspective. Our sample data include the Dow Jones (DJ) Stoxx 600 and twelve European sector indices, namely Automobile and Parts, Financials, Food and Beverages, Oil and Gas, Health Care, Industrials, Basic Materials, Personal and Household Goods, Consumer Services, Technology, Telecommunications and Utilities. We collect stock market data from Datastream database.
Introduced in 1998, the Dow Jones
Empirical analysis
We investigate the relationships between oil price changes and sector stock market returns in Europe over the last turbulent decade. We begin our analysis with the estimation of multifactor asset pricing models to investigate the sensitivities of the sector stock returns to oil price and European market changes, then we perform the Granger causality tests to examine their causal linkages, and finally we study cyclical comovements.
Some portfolio implications of the results
In this section, we discuss some implications of the results we obtain for portfolio investment. First, we show that a model with oil risk presents superior out-of-sample forecasting results to a market model. Second, we illustrate how our results can be used in portfolio diversification and measure the out-of-sample benefit from portfolios considering these results. Note that we report, in what follows, the results obtained with weekly data over the out-of-sample sub-period running from
Conclusion
In this article, we investigated the linkages between oil and stock prices. Unlike other empirical investigations, which have focused largely on broad market indices (national and/or regional indices), we contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between oil prices and the stock markets in Europe by testing for short-term links at both the aggregate and sector by sector levels. Our results show strong significant linkages between oil price changes and stock markets for most
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The authors thank anonymous reviewers and Stéphane Grégoir for helpful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.
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