Energy (in)security in Poland the case of shale gas
Highlights
► We examine geologic, economic, environmental and political issues of shale gas. ► Poland is used to assess prospects for shale gas development in Europe. ► Debate in Poland has largely been framed as an energy security issue. ► A number of significant hurdles may prevent large scale development there.
Introduction
This paper examines the shifting center of gravity of the debate over fracking and shale gas development from North America to Europe and assesses the complex mix of market, environmental, and geopolitical considerations that set the tone, and likely the outcome, of this debate in Europe. No European country has a history of commercial development of shale gas, and it is still far from certain that a single cubic meter of gas will be commercially produced. The reasons for this uncertainty lie partly in geologic and geographic realities about the distribution of shale resources, but there are also significant economic, political, and environmental obstacles that would need to be overcome for the emergence of a commercially viable shale gas industry in Europe akin to what has developed in North America over the past decade. Bans on hydraulic fracturing are already in place in France, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and the Netherlands and the German federal state of Nordrhein–Westfalen have imposed moratoria pending further research. In Poland, where government enthusiasm for shale extraction is greatest and public opposition least vocal, as of writing only about twenty wells have been drilled, with a handful of private companies researching cores to establish what amount of natural gas can eventually be commercially extracted. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that technically recoverable shale gas reserves in Poland are roughly 187 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or roughly 5300 billion cubic meters (bcm), though the Polish Geological Institute’s estimate is far smaller as noted later in the paper. Other substantial basins in Europe are in France and Scandinavia (US Energy Information Administration, 2011).
Because it is at the center of the emerging European discussions over shale gas, the paper uses the case of Poland to assess the emerging issues surrounding shale gas in Europe. The article is based on interviews in Warsaw with senior Polish government officials and natural gas industry representatives, in Brussels with European Union officials, as well as field site visits in northern Poland (see Table 1 for a list of interviews). The paper also draws extensively on published reports, scientific literature, and government documents related to shale gas and hydraulic fracturing, which is currently the favored technology for extracting shale gas. The structure of the paper is as follows. First, an overview of key policy considerations is provided. This includes an analysis of how the “shale gas revolution” in North America and its ripple effects on natural gas markets beyond North America, and an examination of the environmental science of shale gas and hydraulic fracturing in light of existing policies in Poland and the EU. Second, the regulatory, infrastructural, and geopolitical context of energy in and its implications for shale gas development in Poland is described. Third, and by way of conclusion, the prospects for shale gas development in Poland are assessed in light of the available evidence.
Section snippets
Key policy considerations concerning shale gas
In North America, the shale gas genie is out of the bottle. Barring some sensational finding on the environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”), such as extensive groundwater contamination, shale gas will likely remain a growing part of the energy landscape in North America (Boersma and Johnson, 2012). The debate will continue in scientific and policy communities, localities, and the media, about the potential impacts of shale gas extraction on climate, a fledgling renewables
Policy implications for Poland
Not a single molecule of shale gas has been produced in Poland, and many questions remain whether shale gas will actually be produced commercially in the future. Yet this has not stopped “shale gas euphoria” in Poland (Wyciszkiewicz et al., 2011), nor has it prevented active opposition to fracking in Brussels and elsewhere. The reasons for enthusiasm in Poland are numerous, but at the top of the list are concerns over (a) the high prices consumers pay for gas in Poland, and (from a producer’s
Energy (in)security and the geopolitics equation
When energy becomes an instrument, or even weapon, it stops being an economic issue and becomes a matter of national security,” … [it cannot] “simply be resolved by pressing several free-market buttons labeled ‘liberalization,’ ‘competition,’ etc.” (Radek Sikorski 7 May 2008, quoted in Roth, 2011).
While industry balances economic with geologic realities in assessing the potentials for shale gas development in Poland, our interviews with government officials in Poland revealed an even more
Conclusions
This paper has provided an overview of the geologic, economic, environmental and political-regulatory issues related to shale gas and hydraulic fracturing, and it has used the case of Poland to examine the prospects for a nascent shale gas industry in that country. While certain market conditions are certainly ripe for additional supplies of natural gas coming on stream in this part of Europe, high consumer prices and dependence on a small number of suppliers are by themselves not sufficient to
Acknowledgement
The authors wish to thank Robert Kleinberg and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on this paper. The research was conducted in 2011-12 while the authors were fellows at the Transatlantic Academy in the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington, DC. Invaluable intellectual contributions and logistical support were provided by Thomas Legge, Laura Rozzo, Sasha Przygoda, Michal Baranowski, Andrew Michta, and Steve Szabo. Corey Johnson further acknowledges the generous
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