Implications of Japan's 2030 target for long-term low emission pathways
Introduction
With an eye toward the Conference Of Parties (COP) 21 held in Paris from November to December 2015, the parties have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the targets to reduce their GHG emissions by around 2030. Recently, several integrated assessment modelling groups attempted to assess the emission pathways based on the INDCs submitted up to 1st October 2015, and collectively suggest that implementation of the INDCs is not on track with the optimal pathways which are likely to limit the average global temperature increase to within 2 °C in this century (UNEP, 2015, UNFCCC, 2015b). Pathways coherent with INDCs have also been extended beyond 2030 by some groups, results of which imply the need for a rapid emissions reduction after 2030 as well as enhanced ambition level of the INDC mitigation targets themselves, in order to meet the 2 °C goal (Fawcett et al., 2015, Fujimori et al., 2016b).
In addition to the requirement to reduce GHG emissions in the mid-term, the Paris Agreement underscores the importance of long-term aspects aimed at undertaking rapid reductions to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHG in the second half of this century, in order to achieve the goal of keeping the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels (UNFCCC, 2015a). In order to meet these global goals, the Paris Agreement recommends parties to communicate their nationally determined contributions every five years, and to formulate and communicate long-term low GHG emissions development strategies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important for each country and region to factor in long-term perspectives that go beyond INDCs into their post-Paris energy and climate policies.
Considering the Paris Agreement, several research groups have assessed the INDCs across the major emitting economies and relayed the implications of the related feasibility and ambition level (Aldy et al., 2016, Hof et al., 2016, Spencer et al., 2015). Some of these studies include Japan, due to its position as a big GHG emitter, following China, the United States, the European Union, India, Brazil and the Russian Federation, as of 2012 (JRC/PBL, 2014). However, despite the utility of such studies in assessing the feasibility and ambition level of Japan's INDC – which is to reduce GHG emissions by 26.0% in 2030 with respect to the 2013 level (Government of Japan, 2015) – there is a lack of consistency between the 2030 target and the long-term goal, meaning that what the implications are for long-term energy and climate policies remains to be elucidated. Hence, this study aims to, by using AIM/Enduse model, clarify the feasibility and key options of decarbonization pathways in Japan by 2050 through consideration of the 2030 target mentioned in the INDC, as well as to provide implications for post-Paris energy and climate policies.
Section snippets
Brief description of Japan's INDC and the 2050 target
The government of Japan submitted its INDC on 17th July 2015, which is to reduce GHG emissions by 26.0% in 2030 with respect to the 2013 level, equivalent to 25.4% below the 2005 level (Government of Japan, 2015). If emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) are excluded, estimated GHG emissions in 2030 account for about 22.7% below the 2005 level. However, while the INDC does refer to consistency with the 2 °C goal and the goal of developed counties – which is to reduce GHG
Overview of AIM/Enduse [Japan]
AIM/Enduse [Japan] is a partial equilibrium, dynamic recursive, technology-based model applied for assessing mid- to long-term pathways of GHG emissions in Japan, and which is based on detailed descriptions of technologies in the end-use sectors as well as the energy supply sectors. In addition to CO2 emissions, it includes non-CO2 emissions so called Kyoto gases that are converted into CO2-equivalents using GWP100 factors taken from the IPCC AR4 (IPCC, 2007). However, LULUCF are excluded from
Feasibility and key options for meeting the 2030 target
As summarized in Fig. 1, the estimated GHG emissions in all cases excluding the Reference case, are reduced by 22.7% or more in 2030 with respect to the 2005 level, which is equivalent to the level mentioned in the INDC. In contrast, GHG emissions in the Reference case are about 10% lower compared with the 2005 level, which suggests that the INDC could consolidate an effective transition from the baseline trajectory by 2030. In addition, the 2030 target is also technically feasible given the
Conclusions and policy implications
This study presents an analysis of Japan's 2030 target and its implications for the long-term low emission pathways in the context of the 80% reduction target by 2050. The scenario analysis by 2030 suggests that the INDC could consolidate the transition from the baseline trajectory. Particularly, improvement in energy efficiency and decarbonization of electricity can be considered as key options in order to meet the 2030 target. Even in the scenarios with constraint on nuclear power, meeting
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency under the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1402 and 2-1702).
References (32)
- et al.
Evaluation of carbon dioxide sequestration in Japan with a mathematical model
Energy
(2004) - et al.
Assessment of the emission reduction target of halving CO2 emissions by 2050: macro-factors analysis and model analysis under newly developed socio-economic scenarios
Energy Strategy Rev.
(2014) - et al.
The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: a scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation
Energy Policy
(2014) - et al.
Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan
Energy Policy
(2015) - et al.
Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS
Clim. Change
(2014) - et al.
Economic tools to promote transparency and comparability in the Paris agreement
Nat. Clim. Change
(2016) - Chateau, J., Dellink, R., Lanzi, E., 2014. An overview of the OECD ENV-linkages model: version 3. OECD Environment...
- et al.
Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?
Science
(2015) - et al.
Will international emissions trading help achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement?
Environ. Res. Lett.
(2016) - et al.
Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals
SpringerPlus
(2016)
The EU 40% greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective
Int. Environ. Agreem.: Polit. Law Econ.
World Energy Outlook 2014
World Energy Outlook 2015
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Cited by (41)
Leveraging opportunity of low carbon transition by super-emitter cities in China
2023, Science BulletinEffects of meteorological and climatological factors on extremely high residual load and possible future changes
2023, Renewable and Sustainable Energy ReviewsIntegrated Assessment Modeling of Korea's 2050 Carbon Neutrality Technology Pathways
2022, Energy and Climate ChangeTowards a dramatic reduction in the European Natural Gas consumption: Italy as a case study
2022, Journal of Cleaner ProductionCitation Excerpt :Furthermore, that methodology has been applied to the decarbonisation strategy of Toronto for investigating a case study. (Oshiro et al., 2017) have analysed the decarbonisation costs related to the greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in Japan. According to them, although these targets are technically achievable, carbon abatement costs will be higher than 160 $/tCO2 and policies to support the energy transition will be necessary.
Development of a stochastic multistage lifecycle programming model for electric power system planning – A case study for the Province of Saskatchewan, Canada
2022, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
- 1
Postal address: 2108-11, Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115, Japan.
- 2
Postal address: 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.