Elsevier

Energy Policy

Volume 110, November 2017, Pages 581-587
Energy Policy

Implications of Japan's 2030 target for long-term low emission pathways

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.09.003Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Japan's INDC is effective in consolidating a transition from the baseline trajectory.

  • Meeting the 2030 target requires a raise in carbon prices to over 160 US$/t-CO2.

  • Constraints on nuclear power would not compromise either the 2030 or 2050 goals.

  • The 80% reduction target by 2050 requires a huge and rapid transformation after 2030.

  • Early actions such as promotion of RD&D of innovative technologies are necessary.

Abstract

This study assesses implications of the target reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 included in Japan's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for long-term low emission pathways toward 2050, as well as feasibility of the 2030 target itself using AIM/Enduse model. Scenario analysis by 2030 suggests that implementing the INDC could consolidate a transition from the baseline trajectory, which is mainly derived from improved energy efficiency and decarbonization of electricity. The 2030 target is still technically feasible even if nuclear power is constrained or totally phased-out by 2030, based on additional deployment of renewable energies. However, these pathways incur carbon price hikes of over 160 US$/t-CO2, and need effective policy supports. Over the long-term, pathways that meet both 2030 and 2050 targets also appear technically feasible, provisional upon additional efforts being made beyond the 2030 target. These pathways also require a huge and rapid transformation in the energy system post-2030, including large-scale deployment of variable renewable energies and carbon capture and storage, and improvement of energy efficiency and electrification. Early actions and policies before 2030, including RD&D in innovative technologies and development of the market would be needed for commercial realization of these options.

Introduction

With an eye toward the Conference Of Parties (COP) 21 held in Paris from November to December 2015, the parties have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the targets to reduce their GHG emissions by around 2030. Recently, several integrated assessment modelling groups attempted to assess the emission pathways based on the INDCs submitted up to 1st October 2015, and collectively suggest that implementation of the INDCs is not on track with the optimal pathways which are likely to limit the average global temperature increase to within 2 °C in this century (UNEP, 2015, UNFCCC, 2015b). Pathways coherent with INDCs have also been extended beyond 2030 by some groups, results of which imply the need for a rapid emissions reduction after 2030 as well as enhanced ambition level of the INDC mitigation targets themselves, in order to meet the 2 °C goal (Fawcett et al., 2015, Fujimori et al., 2016b).

In addition to the requirement to reduce GHG emissions in the mid-term, the Paris Agreement underscores the importance of long-term aspects aimed at undertaking rapid reductions to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHG in the second half of this century, in order to achieve the goal of keeping the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels (UNFCCC, 2015a). In order to meet these global goals, the Paris Agreement recommends parties to communicate their nationally determined contributions every five years, and to formulate and communicate long-term low GHG emissions development strategies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important for each country and region to factor in long-term perspectives that go beyond INDCs into their post-Paris energy and climate policies.

Considering the Paris Agreement, several research groups have assessed the INDCs across the major emitting economies and relayed the implications of the related feasibility and ambition level (Aldy et al., 2016, Hof et al., 2016, Spencer et al., 2015). Some of these studies include Japan, due to its position as a big GHG emitter, following China, the United States, the European Union, India, Brazil and the Russian Federation, as of 2012 (JRC/PBL, 2014). However, despite the utility of such studies in assessing the feasibility and ambition level of Japan's INDC – which is to reduce GHG emissions by 26.0% in 2030 with respect to the 2013 level (Government of Japan, 2015) – there is a lack of consistency between the 2030 target and the long-term goal, meaning that what the implications are for long-term energy and climate policies remains to be elucidated. Hence, this study aims to, by using AIM/Enduse model, clarify the feasibility and key options of decarbonization pathways in Japan by 2050 through consideration of the 2030 target mentioned in the INDC, as well as to provide implications for post-Paris energy and climate policies.

Section snippets

Brief description of Japan's INDC and the 2050 target

The government of Japan submitted its INDC on 17th July 2015, which is to reduce GHG emissions by 26.0% in 2030 with respect to the 2013 level, equivalent to 25.4% below the 2005 level (Government of Japan, 2015). If emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) are excluded, estimated GHG emissions in 2030 account for about 22.7% below the 2005 level. However, while the INDC does refer to consistency with the 2 °C goal and the goal of developed counties – which is to reduce GHG

Overview of AIM/Enduse [Japan]

AIM/Enduse [Japan] is a partial equilibrium, dynamic recursive, technology-based model applied for assessing mid- to long-term pathways of GHG emissions in Japan, and which is based on detailed descriptions of technologies in the end-use sectors as well as the energy supply sectors. In addition to CO2 emissions, it includes non-CO2 emissions so called Kyoto gases that are converted into CO2-equivalents using GWP100 factors taken from the IPCC AR4 (IPCC, 2007). However, LULUCF are excluded from

Feasibility and key options for meeting the 2030 target

As summarized in Fig. 1, the estimated GHG emissions in all cases excluding the Reference case, are reduced by 22.7% or more in 2030 with respect to the 2005 level, which is equivalent to the level mentioned in the INDC. In contrast, GHG emissions in the Reference case are about 10% lower compared with the 2005 level, which suggests that the INDC could consolidate an effective transition from the baseline trajectory by 2030. In addition, the 2030 target is also technically feasible given the

Conclusions and policy implications

This study presents an analysis of Japan's 2030 target and its implications for the long-term low emission pathways in the context of the 80% reduction target by 2050. The scenario analysis by 2030 suggests that the INDC could consolidate the transition from the baseline trajectory. Particularly, improvement in energy efficiency and decarbonization of electricity can be considered as key options in order to meet the 2030 target. Even in the scenarios with constraint on nuclear power, meeting

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency under the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1402 and 2-1702).

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