Forty years of energy security trends: A comparative assessment of 22 industrialized countries

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2014.08.008

Energy Research & Social Science

Volume 4, December 2014, Pages 64-77

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2014.08.008 Get rights and content

Abstract

This article correlates energy policy and practice with the multidimensional concept of energy security and empirical performance over forty years. Based on an analysis of 22 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development between 1970 and 2010, it concludes that many industrialized countries have made limited progress toward the goal of achieving secure, reliable and affordable supplies of energy while also transitioning to a low-carbon energy system. However, some national best practices exist, which are identified by examining the relative performance of four countries: the United Kingdom and Belgium (both with noteworthy improvements), and Sweden and France (both with limited improvements). The article concludes by offering implications for energy policy more broadly and by providing empirical evidence that our four dimensions (availability, affordability, energy efficiency, and environmental stewardship) envelop the key strategic components of energy security.

Introduction

After decades of debate, the energy security discussion now rightly focuses on a critical global dilemma: can the world have secure, reliable and affordable supplies of energy that do not impinge upon social stability nor involve climate-endangering greenhouse gases? The answer to this question highlights the multi-faceted nature of the energy security dilemma, but the key dimensions of the problem are still being disputed. In turn, the global political economy exhibits a diverse array of energy security strategies and policies. This reflects a lack of consensus about the nature of the energy security problem as well as the need for different approaches to address diverse resource endowments, political levers, inter-state relations, capital availability, risk appetites, and other particularities of individual nations.

To offer readers a concise, high level view of global trends in energy security, this study investigates the energy security performance of 22 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) between 1970 and 2010. To do so, it evaluates their performance on a set of 10 energy security metrics, and then uses z-scores and factor analysis to tease out best performers and practices. We also present four brief, qualitative historical case studies of Belgium, France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom to help make sense of our results. Our study finds that many industrialized countries have made limited progress toward the goal of achieving secure, reliable and affordable supplies of energy while also transitioning to a low-carbon energy system.

Some of our work has explored the topic of energy security and industrialized countries before. What makes this analysis different, and relevant to this journal? Many things. Our earlier work ended with 2007 data, relied on simple z-scores to report results, and presented case studies of Denmark, Japan, the United States, and Spain. This study draws from more recent 2010 data, uses factor analysis to examine correlations between the energy security metrics, applies clustering analysis to identify sets of countries with common energy security trends, and presents four completely new case studies of Belgium, France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

In doing so, it connects to a number of key themes in this journal. By focusing on energy security as a multidimensional concept involving environmental, political, and economic elements, it moves away from narrow depictions of energy security centered on technology [1]. By offering a systematic method of measuring energy security performance, our study can inform energy planners making actual decisions about infrastructure or national policy [2], decisions that can affect those deciding the proper scale of energy systems [3], [4], or wider patterns of poverty and economic development [5]. Our energy security index makes possible the correlation of energy security performance with exogenous events such as military conflicts [6], major embargoes [7], or the introduction of innovative, yet disruptive, energy technologies [8]. It lastly helps reveal energy vulnerabilities common to many countries, a process which could convince stakeholders to cooperate and work together politically to respond to collective threats [9].

Section snippets

Conceptualizing energy security

Energy security has long centered on questions of reliable energy supplies, the regional concentration of energy resources, and the implications of the strategic withholding of energy. This view recognizes that energy is essential for any form of economic activities; increasing energy consumption has characterized industrialization and economic development over the past century [10]. With the broadening of the range of energy supply disruptions, discussions of energy security have expanded to

Dimensions and indicators of energy security

In some of our previous work, we have argued that energy security consists of four interconnected criteria or dimensions: availability, affordability, efficiency, and environmental stewardship [28], [31], [34], [35]. Availability refers to diversifying the fuels used to provide energy services as well as the location of facilities using those fuels, promoting energy systems that can recover quickly from attack or disruption, and minimizing dependence on foreign suppliers. Affordability refers

Methodology for evaluating the dimensions and indicators of energy security

We evaluate the validity and usefulness of our energy security dimensions and indicators from two perspectives. First, are the indicators of energy security strengths and weaknesses correlated with the proposed four dimensions? If so, we could conclude that the four dimensions provide useful insights into common energy security conditions and strategic approaches. Recall that the four dimensions were not derived deductively from a theoretical framework, but rather emerged from a review of the

Correlational strength of energy security indicators

Using factor analysis, we can determine if the 10 energy security indicators are correlated in a way that resembles our four dimensions. In statistical terms, does the factor analysis identify latent variables (i.e., factors) that are similar to the four dimensions described in Table 1? In addition to identifying the underlying factors, the analysis can estimate the strength of each factor in terms of the percent of total variance that it explains, and it can indicate if a particular number of

Taxonomy of countries

The energy security dilemma is played out in very different ways across the states that make up the global political economy [23]. Through cluster analysis of changes in the energy security z-scores between 1970 and 2010, we can see if groups of countries are distinct in ways consistent with the four dimensions. We use a hierarchical clustering technique based on a Euclidean cluster method.

Fig. 3 presents the numerically derived dendrogram of countries in a hierarchical scheme. This approach

Four case studies of energy security performance

Using the same statistical data, supplemented by a review of the published literature, we explore four countries in greater detail, focusing on their improved, or worsened, energy security scores and the strategic actions that have led to them. Fig. 2 shows that the United Kingdom and Belgium had their national energy security improve significantly between 1970 and 2010, whereas Sweden and France made more limited progress. Being members of the European Union, all four countries are influenced

Conclusion

This study has presented an energy security index comprised of four dimensions (energy availability, affordability, energy efficiency, and environmental stewardship) and 10 indicators, based on the status of energy conditions in 22 OECD countries from 1970 to 2010. At least four interconnected conclusions can be drawn from this research.

First, our energy security index shows that a majority of the industrialized countries in our sample have regressed in terms of their energy security. No

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Original research articleForty years of energy security trends: A comparative assessment of 22 industrialized countries

Abstract

Introduction

Section snippets

Conceptualizing energy security

Dimensions and indicators of energy security

Methodology for evaluating the dimensions and indicators of energy security

Correlational strength of energy security indicators

Taxonomy of countries

Four case studies of energy security performance

Conclusion

Energy Res Soc Sci

Energy Policy

Energy Res Soc Sci

Energy Res Soc Sci

Energy Res Soc Sci

Energy Res Soc Sci

Energy Res Soc Sci

Energy Res Soc Sci

Energy Res Soc Sci

Energy

Energy Policy

Reliab Eng Syst Saf

Renew Sustain Energy Rev

Energy Policy

Energy Policy

Energy Policy

Energy Policy

Appl Energy

Renew Sustain Energy Rev

Glob Environ Change

Energy Environ Sci

Energy Policy

Energy

Ecol Econ

Energy Policy

Energy Policy

Energy

Energy Policy

Renew Energy

Energy Policy

Appl Energy

Energy Policy

Energy Policy

Energy

Biomass Bioenergy

Glob Environ Change

Energy Policy

Energy Policy

J Clean Prod

Ensuring energy security

Foreign affairs

Energy security and climate policy – assessing interactions

The distribution of the major economies’ effort in the Durban platform scenarios

Climate Change Econ

Energy and Security

The environmental dimension of energy security

Routledge handbook of energy security

The energy service dimension of energy security

Global energy dilemmas: a geographical perspective

Geogr J

Thinking outside the box: energy security in Europe and beyond

Competing dimensions of energy security: an international review

Annu Rev Environ Resour

Original research article
Forty years of energy security trends: A comparative assessment of 22 industrialized countries