Elsevier

Futures

Volume 38, Issue 7, September 2006, Pages 740-766
Futures

Functions of scenarios in transition processes

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.003Get rights and content

Abstract

Given the interplaying tendencies of economic decline, social instability, and environmental depletion, any transition towards sustainable development faces a challenging task. To successfully cope with this complexity requires transition management. Integrated approaches for supporting sustainability transitions have been elaborated in the last years. Future studies and scenario construction are regarded as essential components in these approaches. However, the related studies in this field have focused either on a specific type of transition process, or on decision support in a different contextual process, or on a specific function of scenarios. Thus, an evaluation of the wide range of viewpoints on the functions of scenarios with respect to the requirements for transition management is still missing. In this paper, we systematically elaborate upon the functions for transition management that scenarios can fulfil. The developed concept is applied to five empirical scenario studies supporting transition processes on the national, regional and local level in Switzerland. The paper contributes to the development of a functional methodology of transition support, providing initial guidelines for answering the question of which method is appropriate for what type and phase of a transition process.

Introduction

In the light of current tendencies of economic decline, social instability, and environmental depletion, there have been calls for transitions towards sustainable development regarding various socio-economic activities [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8]. Due to their complexity, sustainability transitions require a specific kind of intervention support, i.e., a transition management. During the last decade, a variety of integrated approaches for supporting sustainability transitions of organizational and societal systems has been elaborated [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [107]. These approaches refer to different paradigms of planning, problem solving, or decision making, and integrate a variety of qualitative and quantitative methods.

Future studies in general and scenario construction in particular have been designated as essential components of appropriate transition support [2], [4], [5], [7], [8], [15], [16], [17], [18], [108]. Moreover, considering the broad spectrum of applications, scenario construction appears to be an “all-rounder” in the field of complex problem solving. Yet, in contrast, there is also a tradition that questions the role of scenario construction as a “universal remedy”. In order to reshape its profile and to determine the limits of its applicability, the functions that can appropriately be fulfilled by scenario construction have been critically evaluated in various fields (e.g. [19], [20], [21], [22], [23], [24], [25], [26], [27], [28], [29], [30], [31]). These studies focus either on a specific type of transition process, or on decision support in a different contextual process, or on a specific function of scenarios.

However, the objective of this paper is to evaluate the variety of viewpoints concerning the functions of scenarios with respect to requirements for transition management. We systematically derive a set of requirements for transition management and outline which of these requirements scenario construction, given its basic components, can fulfil. Based on a literature review, we evaluate the proposed functions and required components.

For the empirical verification of the elaborated concept, we analyse five scenario studies supporting transition processes on the national, regional and local (city) level in Switzerland. Transition research has mostly focused on technologies [32], on micro- or macro-economic issues [3], [33], or on large-scale systems [2], [4], [17], [108]. Transition management of medium-scale complex systems, such as cities or regions, although argued to be most relevant for global sustainability [2], is seldom evaluated. Thus, we adopt this focus in the analysis of empirical scenario studies.

The paper is divided into six sections. In Section 2, we briefly characterize transition processes and compile the requirements for appropriate transition support. In Section 3, we provide a short overview of the general structure of functional scenario construction. In Section 4, we outline the functions scenario construction can fulfil according to the requirements for transition support (Section 4.1) and conduct a literature review to evaluate this outline (Section 4.2). In Section 5, we apply the developed concept to five scenario studies supporting transition processes on the national, regional and local levels in Switzerland. In Section 6, we summarize our findings and draw some conclusions.

Section snippets

Transition management of organizational and societal systems

Organizational and societal systems, such as cities, sectors or companies, experience an ongoing process of change. For such systems, we consider transitions to be structured developments from one relatively stable state to another [4], [5], [34], [107], [108]. A transition in this context is conceived of as the large-scale, long-term development of a system in which some of its fundaments (i.e., knowledge, rules, norms, practices, and structures) significantly change. In addition, transitions

Basics of functional scenario construction

In general, scenario construction is conceptualized as a more or less structured procedure for the generation of descriptions of future alternative system states. From the methodological framework (Fig. 3), we distinguish six essential aspects of scenario construction [56]: functions, goal formation, procedure, results, operating agents, and strategic agents. The framework integrates functional, input–output-, and agent-related components. It differentiates among inputs (goal), intermediates

The range of functions

Given the afore-mentioned requirements for transition management and basics of functional scenario construction, we proceed with the question concerning which requirements scenarios and scenario construction are able to fulfil (as well as which they are unable to fulfil). This question is addressed, via a conceptual synthesis, in Section 4.1 and is followed by a literature review in Section 4.2, conducted to verify the proposed conceptual synthesis.

Scenario studies

Research teams from the Chair of Natural and Social Science Interface (NSSI) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) conducted several scenario studies on the local, regional and national levels in Switzerland. We analysed five well-documented scenario constructions along with the resulting scenarios by means of a content analysis of the project reports, documents and publications [84]. The schemes of functions elaborated upon in Section 4 served as the points of reference. The

Conclusions

Previous methodological research [60], [106], has shown that the function of a method is neither completely determined by its components and procedural structure nor completely determinable by one's intentions. The same holds true for the function of scenario construction. There is a range of applicability with a demarcation line indicating whether a function can or cannot be fulfilled by scenario construction.

In this paper, we analysed the functions of scenarios in transition processes given

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Daniel Lang, Alexander Walter, Olaf Weber (all at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich) and Katja Brundiers (University of Zurich) for technical support, as well as Peter Loukopoulos for substantial editorial support. We would also like to thank the participants of the Future Conference on “Urban Spaces of Tomorrow” at the University of Bochum, Germany, 24–28 October 2003 for their comments.

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