Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: Household strategies and determinants

Abstract

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being.

Introduction

Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production in Africa. A range of climate models suggest median temperature increases between 3 °C and 4 °C in Africa by the end of the 21st Century, roughly 1.5 times the global mean response. This will likely result in significant yield losses of key staple crops, such as maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, of between 8 and 22 percent by 2050 unless key investments are made to improve agricultural productivity under climate risk (Schlenker and Lobell, 2010). In East Africa, there are very few places where rainfall means are likely to decrease; however, increases in rainfall are unlikely to increase agricultural productivity as a result of unfavorable spacing and timing of precipitation. Because of this variability, coupled with an expected increase in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures, Kenya is expected to experience country-wide losses in the production of key staples, such as maize (Herrero et al., 2010).

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to adverse impacts from climate change, because of their limited capacity to adapt. The development challenges that many African countries face are already considerable, and climate change will only add to these through losses in farm profits (Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006). These impacts are particularly important for countries such as Kenya, where the poverty rate is 52 percent and 73 percent of the labor force depends on agricultural production for their livelihood (FAOSTAT, 2010). Because agricultural production remains the main source of income for most rural communities in the region, adaptation is imperative to enhance the resilience of the agriculture sector, protect the livelihoods of the poor, and ensure food security. At the national level, this will require greater investments in drought and heat tolerant varieties, irrigation systems, disaster relief, insurance and social protection programs, and integrated strategies to reduce livelihood risks (Howden et al., 2007; Schlenker and Lobell, 2010). It also requires adjustments at the farm household and community scales.

Adaptation to climate change at the farm level includes many possible responses, such as changes in crop management practices (e.g. choice of fields, planting dates, planting densities, crop varieties), livestock management practices (e.g. livestock choice, feeding and animal health practices, transhumance timing and destinations), land use and land management (e.g. fallowing, tree planting or protection, irrigation and water harvesting, soil and water conservation measures, tillage practices, soil fertility management) and livelihood strategies (e.g. mix of crops or livestock produced, combination of agricultural and non-farm activities, temporary or permanent migration) (Brklacich et al., 1997; Bryant et al., 2000; Smit and Skinner, 2002; Kabubo-Mariara, 2008).

Adaptation can greatly reduce vulnerability to climate change by making rural communities better able to adjust to climate change and variability, moderate potential damages, and cope with adverse consequences (IPCC, 2001). A better understanding of farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policies aimed at promoting successful adaptation of the agricultural sector. Adaptation will require the involvement of multiple stakeholders, including first and foremost, farmers, but also policymakers, extension agents, NGOs, researchers, communities and the private sector.

Recent micro-econometric studies have examined the links between adaptation and agricultural productivity and net income from agricultural production under climate change (Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008; Di Falco et al., 2011; Di Falco et al., 2012). Others have focused on the factors influencing adoption of adaptation strategies and have highlighted ways in which policymakers can support adaptation through the provision of credit, information, inputs, and extension services among other measures (Maddison, 2007; Nhemachena and Hassan, 2008; Gbetibouo, 2009; Bryan et al., 2009; Deressa et al., 2009; Hisali et al., 2011; Tambo and Abdoulaye, 2012). For a review of the literature on micro-level adaptation to climate change see Below et al. (2010).

This study focuses on the factors that influence farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies at the household level in Kenya building on previous work by Bryan et al. (2009) in Ethiopia and South Africa. This study expands on previous research by integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods (similar to Thomas et al., 2007) and emphasizing differences in adaptation choices across agroecological zones (AEZs).

The article is composed of four sections. Section 2 describes the study sites and outlines data collection and analytical methods. Section 3 presents the results and is divided into two parts. The first part discusses climate change perceptions and compares these with actual climate trends. The second part examines adaptation to perceived climate change focusing on strategies undertaken by households, desired adaptation strategies, and the determinants of adaptation. Conclusions and policy implications are discussed in Section 4.