Quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios in complex industrial areas
Introduction
Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is among the tools more widely applied worldwide to provide quantitative information on the risk caused by conventional accidents in chemical and process plants (Center for Chemical Process Safety [CCPS], 2000; Mannan, 2005). QRA consists of a set of methodologies for estimating the risk posed by a given system in terms of human loss or, in some cases, economic loss (CCPS, 2000; Mannan, 2005; Uijt de Haag & Ale, 1999). The application of QRA to extended and complex industrial areas or to chemical clusters required the development of specific methodologies to account for issues as the distribution of population and the transportation of hazardous substances to and from the area of concern. These extensions of the QRA methodology were named “Quantitative Area Risk Assessment” or QARA in the literature (Antonioni, Spadoni, & Cozzani, 2009; Cozzani, Antonioni, & Spadoni, 2006; Cozzani, Bonvicini, Spadoni, & Zanelli, 2007; Cozzani, Gubinelli, Antonioni, Spadoni, & Zanelli, 2005; Egidi, Foraboschi, Spadoni, & Amendola, 1995; Spadoni, Contini, & Uguccioni, 2003; Spadoni, Egidi, & Contini, 2000).
Two pilot studies may be recognized as the precursors of QARA: the integrated studies of Canvey Island (Health and Safety Executive [HSE], 1978, 1981) and of the Rijnmond area (Rijnmond Public Authority, 1982). In 1988 a project aiming at the quantitative analysis of risk in the Ravenna industrial area was started, named “Analisi dei Rischi Industriali e Portuali nell'Area di Ravenna” or ARIPAR project (Egidi et al., 1995). Within the ARIPAR project, a software allowing the quantitative calculation of individual and societal risk was developed. The Aripar software, developed by University of Bologna, EC Joint Research Centre and Snamprogetti was at the time the first dedicated software tool allowing the calculation of iso-risk and F–N plots for industrial areas, including hazardous materials transportation systems (Bellezza, Contini, Binda, & Spadoni, 1998; Spadoni et al., 2003).
Since then, the methodologies, the models and the software tools available for QRA and QARA where continuously improved (http://www.dnv.com/binaries/Safeti_1012_tcm4-76524.pdf; http://www.tno.nl/RISKCURVES; Godoy, Santa Cruz, & Scenna, 2007; Pasman & Reniers, 2013). Also in the framework of the application of the Seveso Directives (Directives 82/501/EEC, 96/82/EC, and 2012/18/EU), these techniques became a reference for decision making of operating companies and of public authorities. In particular the second Seveso Directive (96/82/EC), introducing specific requirements for land-use planning with respect to major accident hazard called for decision support methods often based on QARA in complex industrial areas: e.g. a number of QARA assessments were carried out in Italy to control and reduce the risk of extended industrial areas as those of Livorno and Piombino (Spagli, Ceccanti, & Mossa Verre, 2006; Uguccioni, Bellocchi, & Spadoni, 2006), Porto Marghera (Luria & Aspinall, 2003), Messina (Milazzo, Lisi, Maschio, Antonioni, & Spadoni, 2010; Morra, Lisi, Spadoni, & Maschio, 2009), Priolo-Melilli (Bartolozzi, Bajardi, Vasile, & Marino, 2010).
The growing public concern caused by high-impact low-probability (HILP) accident scenarios, and the increasing attention devoted in the scientific and technical literature to domino effect (Reniers & Cozzani, 2013) and NaTech events (Krausmann, Cozzani, Salzano, & Renni, 2011; Krausmann & Cruz, 2008; Petrova & Krausmann, 2011), called for the extension of the conventional QARA methodology. Domino effect was responsible of several catastrophic accidents that took place in the chemical and process industry (Abdolhamidzadeh, Abbasi, Rashtchian, & Abbasi, 2011; CCPS, 2000; Khan & Abbasi, 1999; Mannan, 2005). Severe NaTech events were documented as a consequence of earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and lightning (Cozzani, Campedel, Renni, & Krausmann, 2010; Krausmann, Cozzani, et al., 2011; Krausmann, Renni, Campedel, & Cozzani, 2011; Renni, Krausmann, & Cozzani, 2010; Young, Balluz, & Malilay, 2004).
In recent years, a common framework was developed to include the assessment of external hazard factors in risk assessment. A comprehensive approach was obtained to allow the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech, extending the QARA potentialities to the quantitative assessment of the contribution to industrial risk due to such scenarios.
In the present study the overall procedures for the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios are revised. Recent developments, as the possibility to include higher order domino scenarios are presented. Progress on models for equipment damage assessment is discussed. Several case-studies are analyzed, to show the importance of these developments for the calculation of overall risk figures. The results are also analyzed in the perspective of the pioneering work in the field carried out by Franco Paolo Foraboschi, to which this contribution in the “process safety pioneers” special issue is dedicated.
Section snippets
General features
The quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios was obtained modifying the conventional procedure for QRA. Fig. 1 summarizes the main steps of the procedures applied for the assessment of domino effect and of NaTech events.
The starting point of both methodologies is the assumption that a full characterization of all the primary risk sources present in the layout of concern is available. If the site falls under the obligations of the EC “Seveso-II” Directive, such data may be easily
Case-studies
Two case-studies were analyzed with the aim of assessing the importance of the previously discussed extensions of QARA studies to domino and NaTech scenarios. In the first case-study, the NaTech quantitative risk assessment procedure was applied to sections of an existing industrial site. The Aripar-GIS software was used to carry out the risk calculation and risk mapping for the case-study.
The second case-study is the first application of the procedure developed in the present study for the
Case-study 1
According to the procedure developed by Antonioni, Spadoni, and Cozzani (2007), the damage probabilities reported in Table 8 can be combined in order to calculate the probabilities of the final outcomes triggered by natural events.
Fig. 4 reports the frequencies calculated for the final outcomes in the case of earthquake and flood. Since the reference earthquake assumed for the site has a relatively low intensity (see damage probabilities in Table 8), the expected damage frequencies of
Conclusions
The possibility of extending QRA to the assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios was demonstrated applying recently developed procedures, software tools and models to the assessment of two case-studies. The results evidence that the proposed approach, supported by recent research outcomes, may be easily applied to the quantitative assessment of case-studies of industrial interest, providing reasonable results.
A procedure for the extension of quantitative domino assessment to second-level
Acknowledgement
This paper is dedicated to prof. Franco Paolo Foraboschi, who contributed to spread and improve the culture of chemical process safety with his research and teaching activities.
Franco Paolo Foraboschi held a degree in Chemical Engineering and became full professor of “transport phenomena” at Bologna University in 1965. From 1975 to 1977 he was Dean of the Faculty of Engineering of Bologna University.
His research activity, concerning the investigation of transport phenomena in chemical process
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