The return of China, post-Cold War Russia, and the Arctic: Changes on land and at sea

Highlights

• The Arctic is historically embedded in the international system.

• End of Cold War and Rise of China greatly Arctic today.

• Pacific Arctic is little known to Nordic and North Atlantic observers.

• Sino-Russian relations in Pacific Arctic reflect global geopolitics.

• Russia is distrustful of Chinese natural resource investment.

Abstract

With a long view of the Arctic in international politics and economics, the paper discusses the effects of political and economic power transitions for the Arctic, focusing on Sino-Russian relations. The Arctic has in the last decade received new attention from new quarters of the world, especially Asian emerging powers, which reflects climate change and power transition/globalization. The focus here is on cases of cross-border exchanges in agriculture, raw materials, processed goods, energy and Arctic shipping. The chapter discusses how Sino-Russian relations in this region reflect general trends of Russia and China in a post-Cold War globalized international political and economic system. Russia for both domestic and international reasons struggles to find its post-Cold War position in the international political and economic system, which affects its place between the West and China. Russia’s entire northern boundary is the Arctic, with the longest Arctic coastline of all five Arctic coastal states. To in any way relegate any parts of its Arctic marine area currently defined by the Law of Sea as its EEZ to any international or Chinese authority would diminish Russia's power. China has since the late 1970s experienced phenomenal economic growth, which is the strongest single driver of political and economic power transition in the international system. This power transition also defines China's relation to the Arctic and to Russia. China now terms itself a “near Arctic” nation, has previously described the Arctic as a common heritage of mankind, and seeks to further its influence in the Arctic.

Introduction

The Arctic has received new outside attention for about a decade. Much of this attention – especially popular, but also academic – has focused on local factors in the Arctic. The focus has often been on energy, minerals and shipping lanes made accessible by climate change [3]. There has been a lack of attention to the wider forces of globalization driving this attention to the Arctic. Therefore, the popular and academic discussion of the Arctic benefits from showing the place of the Arctic in the international system before, now and in the future. For the last 25+ years, those systemic changes are the end of the Cold War followed by globalization. The chapter discusses the effects of these international political and economic systemic shifts for the Arctic with focus on China and Russia based on a foundation of how the international systemic changes affect Russia and China: the end of the Cold War and globalization/power transition.

Before turning to the recent international changes of the end of the Cold War and globalization, it is valuable to remember that the North American, North Atlantic and Eurasian Arctic has been economic, military and scientific theatres for European and Western powers since medieval times. For instance, North Atlantic fish fed medieval Europe during Lent. The Royal Navy and the German Kriegsmarine fought each other for primacy of the North Atlantic and Barents Seas in two world wars. During the Cold War, US and Soviet submarine-based strategic nuclear weapons systems and anti-subware warfighting systems were heavily deployed there [9].