Assessing coastal vulnerability: Development of a combined physical and economic index
Introduction
Coastal zones are highly dynamic and are susceptible to natural hazards, due to the diverse climatic changes that are occurring around the world (Zsamboky et al., 2011, Arkema et al., 2013). The world's coastlines have different geographical characteristics that influence the generation of trade and other coastal activities and make significant contributions to the economies of countries (Kantamaneni, 2016a). Increases in coastal disasters, particularly flood events, impose large socio-economic costs, particularly in populated estuaries, low-lying coastal urban areas, and islands, and these are important communal hotspots of vulnerability (Hinkel et al., 2010). Threats to coastlines occur where substantial growth on the land near the sea is affected by shape and biophysical features (Carter, 2013), while Newton et al. (2012) introduced a syndrome-based method of assessing coastal vulnerability that emerged from concerns related to the impacts of climate variations on coastal zones, suggesting that multiple stressors impact coastal systems worldwide in several ways. The impacts of regional and global climate changes, sea-level rise, and weather fluctuations, alongside terrestrial processes, represent serious threats to all coastal communities (Oliver-Smith, 2009, Handmer et al., 2012). Global trends in sea-level rise have an effect on the UK, particularly along the Norfolk and Suffolk coastlines in southeast England, where records show a historic rising trend (Doody and Williams, 2004, Pye and Blott, 2006, Brooks et al., 2012). According to UNEP (2013), the UK coast has been strongly altered, and the UK's shoreline is one of the most degraded of any country in the world. Therefore, coastal vulnerability assessments are very important when consideration is given to the management and future development of coastal regions, both in the UK and elsewhere across the globe.
Considerable literature exists from around the world on geomorphological and physical coastal vulnerability (Gornitz and Kanciruk, 1989, Gornitz, 1990, Gornitz et al., 1994, Abuodha and Woodroffe, 2010, Balica et al., 2012, Kumar and Kunte, 2012, Wang et al., 2014, Pramanik et al., 2016, Nguyen et al., 2016, Islam et al., 2016). However, there are few corresponding studies on socio-economic vulnerability (Cutter et al., 2003, Vincent, 2004, Schröter et al., 2005, Rygel et al., 2006, Hahn et al., 2009). Similarly, there are UK studies (McLaughlin et al., 2002, McLaughlin and Cooper, 2010, Denner et al., 2015, Kantamaneni, 2016a, Kantamaneni, 2016b), but none assess combined physical and economic vulnerability. Therefore, the present study assesses the physical and economic vulnerability of eleven UK sites of varying physical and economic characteristics; the locations chosen from academic articles and reports of flooding and loss. By assessing and integrating each site's Physical Coastal Vulnerability Index (PCVI) and Fiscal Coastal Vulnerability Index (FCVI), analyses will enable the comparing and contrasting of physical, economic and combined vulnerabilities from multiple perspectives, including ranking of the eleven vulnerable UK coastal areas.
Section snippets
Study areas
Consistent with the work of Kantamaneni (2016b), eleven vulnerable coastal sites in the UK with diverse anthropogenic, physical and socio-economic characteristics have been selected for coastal vulnerability assessment. Of these sites, seven are in England, three are in Wales, and one is in Scotland (Table 1; Fig. 1).
Methodology
A severe storm and extreme wave event coinciding with an equinox caused significant infrastructure damage along the KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa) coast. Subsequently, Palmer et al. (2011) developed a literature based PCVI by assessing five physical factors that affect shoreline vulnerability, i.e. beach width, dune width, distance to 20 m isobath, distance of vegetation behind back beach and percentage rock outcrop. These were given scores based on predefined thresholds with parameter and
Analysis of the PCVI values
Coastal cell measurements were performed for each location in accordance with the procedures described in the methodology section. Each shoreline frontage was divided into 0.5-km cells. In total, 158 cells along 79 km of coastline were identified (Table 6). The three locations in Wales were associated with circa 27.5 km of coastline (55 cells), the seven locations in England were associated with circa 44 km of coastline (88 cells), and the single Scottish region was associated with circa 7.5 km
Discussion
In the present study, a modified PCVI based on key elements of Palmer et al. (2011) and Denner et al. (2015) was developed and used to assess 11 coastal hotspots of the UK. Based on physical variations of 11 locations, an additional two novel physical parameters i.e. distance of built structures behind the back beach and coastal defences, were included. The selection of physical parameters can be complex, due to the number of driving forces within specific coastal environments. In the case of
Conclusions
Appraisal of coastal vulnerability from various perspectives offers specific results that are supported by evidence. Results of the present study have to be viewed with a degree of caution, as data acquisition was a function of the extent of coastline being assessed. The selection of physical parameters used to develop a PCVI was complex, due to a number of driving forces that operate within specific coastal environments. Dunes, rocky outcrops and sea defences play a vital role in coastline
Conflict of interest
This manuscript has not been previously published and is not under consideration in the same or substantially similar form in any other peer-reviewed media. To the best of my knowledge, no conflict of interest, financial or otherwise, exists.
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