Cybersecurity Analysis of Smart Manufacturing System Using Game Theory Approach and Quantal Response Equilibrium

Abstract

Recently cybersecurity issues have been taken more seriously because of highly increasing integration of industrial internet of things and manufacturing systems. These integrations make smart manufacturing systems more vulnerable to cyber threats. It is widely accepted that risk analysis is a function of (1) likelihood of attacks against an asset and (2) the consequences of such attacks. From a manufacturer’s viewpoint, forecasting behavior of attackers to estimate likelihood of attack is far more difficult, while the second variable is easier to determine based on the system’s configuration. In this paper, cost functions are considered as financial loss to address the consequences of attacks. The game theory approach is utilized to model the rivalry of cyber attackers and the manufacturing systems as the defender. Then, to solve the game, a statistical approach, the quantal response equilibrium (QRE), is applied to find the likelihood of attack and predict the behavior of attackers. The attackers’ behavior is investigated under different circumstances to find the best defensive strategy against expected attacks and analyze the cybersecurity risks in manufacturing systems.