The risks and impacts of space weather: Policy recommendations and initiatives

Abstract

Space weather affects global technological systems and societies. Space weather, or the dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment and their impacts on technological systems, can produce coronal mass ejections, solar energetic particles, and geomagnetic disturbances. These space weather events can cause extreme currents in the electric grid, widespread blackouts, and phone and internet communication failures both in space and within the Earth's atmosphere. Severe space weather can damage satellites used for global positioning, communications, and weather forecasting. It also creates a risk of radiation exposure to astronauts and commercial airline crews and passengers. Accurate forecast knowledge of the space weather threat and timing of events is critical to planning and preparation to minimize socioeconomic impacts. This paper reviews the scope of the space weather threat on the global community today. It describes current international and US public policy initiatives to mitigate risk to infrastructure, public safety, and human life. It examines recent international reports and US federal disaster reduction plans to meet these challenges and provides recommendations to increase public awareness and implement public policies to prepare, prevent, and recover from possible catastrophic failures of commercial and government infrastructures caused by a major space weather event.

Introduction

On 1 September 1859 Richard Carrington witnessed a white-light solar flare on the surface of the Sun. This solar storm remains the largest on record in 450 years [1]. The following morning, the aurora borealis was observed as far south as Cuba and Hawaii. The resulting geomagnetic storm silenced telegraph systems around the globe, and in some cases produced electrical currents strong enough to light telegraph paper on fire. Over 150 years later, the effect of a Carrington-level event on today's technology-dependent society would be catastrophic. The increased sophistication of susceptible technologies dramatically raises our vulnerability to space weather events.

Space weather consists of the dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment and their impacts on technological systems. Large solar storms produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that interact with the Earth's atmosphere to create geomagnetic storms [2]. Over several hours or days, these geomagnetic storms can induce powerful electric currents in the atmosphere and the ground that can surge through natural rock and man-made structures such as power lines and pipelines [2]. These extra electrical currents are particularly dangerous to power grids, by potentially causing transformers on high-voltage transmission lines to overheat and burn out.

Powerful electrical currents can also cause corrosion damage to oil and gas pipelines. According to the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), a power transformer can take two months to be replaced if it is in stock, and as long as two years if one must be manufactured [3].

A large geomagnetic storm could result in electrical blackouts or even the complete collapse of power grids . Geomagnetic storms can also cause electric charges in space that affect electronic systems onboard spacecraft, degrade satellite navigation (such as GPS receivers), and disrupt HF radio propagation used in aircraft communications [4]. In December 2006 a solar storm damaged part of the GOES satellite solar x-ray imager, and also caused an unexpectedly severe disruption to the GPS navigation system. The airline industry's dependence on GPS is increasing and a similar space weather event could have potentially disastrous consequences for aviation navigation during takeoffs and landings [5].

A large geomagnetic storm could also threaten the sustainability of the space environment. Significant damage to a satellite during a space weather event could cause complete power failure. The loss of control of the spacecraft would potentially contribute to an increase in space debris. Recent studies have shown that geomagnetic storms can increase atmospheric density as much as 134%, causing a significant increase in atmospheric drag [4]. This increase contributes to orbital decay for objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) such as the Hubble Space Telescope and the International Space Station, which may require additional orbital boosts to maintain their altitude. However, the increase in atmospheric drag can also reduce the amount of space debris in LEO by shortening the time to de-orbit.

Solar storms produce radiation hazards to humans. Astronauts outside the protection of a shielded spaceship or on the surface of the Moon or a planet may be exposed to high levels of radiation during a solar storm. Airline passengers and crews are also at risk of additional modest radiation exposure. Many airlines now fly faster and more economical routes at higher elevations and at higher latitudes, often over the poles, which can further increase the risk of exposure [5].

In 1989 a solar flare produced a geomagnetic storm that caused the collapse of the transmission system for Canada's Hydro Quebec electricity provider, leaving millions of people without power for more than nine hours. [3]. This space weather event also produced enough energetic particles to have killed an unshielded astronaut on the Moon (wearing only a spacesuit) from acute radiation sickness [6]. The late October and early November solar storms of 2003 caused power outages in Europe and permanently damaged transformers in South Africa [5]. Fig. 1 shows the interplanetary shock wave and CME just as they arrived at Earth at 0600UT on 29 October 2003 and initiated an intense geomagnetic storm.

A future Carrington-level event could cause a large geomagnetic storm that would threaten worldwide energy supplies, air transport, telecommunications and other critical infrastructure [7]. Given the global nature of today's economy, a widespread disaster caused by such a geomagnetic storm would have global implications, even if the immediate damage was contained in one hemisphere. The distribution of food, medication, water and other vital necessities might be disrupted with catastrophic consequences for public health and safety. A massive space weather event today would potentially cost over $2 trillion globally [8].

However, space weather can have a global economic impact even in the absence of a major event. A 2004 study by Dr. Kevin Forbes, Chair of the Department of Business and Economics at the Catholic University of America, concluded that a relationship exists between space weather and the real-time market price in the New York wholesale electricity market [9]. Lloyd's of London published a 2010 risk insight briefing outlining the space weather risk and implications to businesses. The report described a series of space weather events in January of 2005 that cause degradation of HF radio links with trans-polar flights. This interruption of radio communications caused airlines to re-route 26 flights during this period, requiring costly refuelling stops and a reduction in cargo capacity [10].