Examining the effect of novelty seeking, satisfaction, and destination image on tourists’ return pattern: A two factor, non-linear latent growth model
Introduction
With many destinations relying heavily on repeat vacationers to induce visit flow (Gitelson & Crompton, 1984), understanding revisit intent has become important to practitioners and academics alike. A thorough comprehension of revisit intent is particularly important for established travel destinations, where the scope for encouraging further “virgin demand” is limited (Darnell & Johnson, 2001). In recent years, many studies have investigated what causes travelers to make repeat visits. Such studies have identified several antecedents of return intention, including satisfaction (Baker and Crompton, 2000, Kozak, 2001, Petrick et al., 2001, Yoon and Uysal, 2005, Yuksel, 2001), perceived quality (Baker and Crompton, 2000, Chen and Gursoy, 2001, Frochot and Hughes, 2000, Yuksel, 2001), past vacation experience (Alegre and Cladera, 2006, Chen and Gursoy, 2001, Kozak, 2001, Petrick et al., 2001), destination image (Bigne et al., 2001, Milman and Pizam, 1995, Ross, 1993), and cultural difference (Chen and Gursoy, 2001, Reisinger and Turner, 1998).
In the majority of existing studies, the use of intentions to predict actual revisit behavior is directed by the theory of reasoned action (TRA) or the theory of planned behavior (TPB). These viewpoints explain behavioral intentions by representing motivational components of a specific behavior, subsequently denoting the degree of conscious effort that a person will exert in order to perform that behavior (Ajzen, 1991, Fishbein, 1967). In other words, they presume that intention to perform a behavior is the proximal cause of such behavior (Shim, Eastlick, Lotz, & Warrington, 2001). Other studies have examined the relationship between behavioral intention and actual behavior (Quelette & Wood, 1998). Using meta-analytic techniques Sheppard, Hartwick, and Warshaw (1988) reported a mean correlation of 0.53 between behavioral intention and actual behavior, while, in a similar study, Van den Putte (1991) found a mean correlation of 0.62 between the same variables. Both studies indicate that behavior can be reasonably predicted from intention and thus it is generally agreed that understanding behavioral intention is critical in predicting future behavior.
Despite several studies on repeat-visit intention, few researchers have to date addressed the issue of repeat visitation patterns. Feng and Jang (2007) explored the effects of tourists’ novelty seeking and destination satisfaction on revisit intention. Examining three-time interludes within the same model, the authors concluded that satisfaction is a direct antecedent of short-term visits, whereas novelty seeking is a significant antecedent of mid-term revisits. Furthermore, Feng and Jang (2007) determined that short-term, mid-term, and long-term revisit intentions are interrelated. Bigne, Sanchez, and Andreu (2009) considered the effects of variety seeking, satisfaction, and several other antecedents on destination revisit intention. They measured intention at two points in time, the short-run (defined as the next holiday trip) and the long-run (the intention to return to the destination in the distant future). They tested two models for short- and long-run revisit intentions and found the opposite results of Feng and Jang (2007). Indeed, Bigne et al. (2009) found the propensity for variety seeking was a main determinant of a tourist’s intent to return to the same destination for the next holiday. In contrast, the strongest antecedent of revisit intention in the long-term was satisfaction. Although results from both studies offer some insights into the factors affecting tourist revisits at different time stages, the models used in both papers are limited in that they are static and do not incorporate change as a measurable variable. Incorporating change—namely, revisits over time—could be a useful tool for understanding the appropriate time interval for future revisit behaviors.
To address this research gap, the present study uses a latent growth model, which draws upon a set of repeated measures for revisit intention to estimate a developmental trajectory of returns over time. The trajectory is latent in that it was not observed directly, but rather inferred from repeated, observed measures. This technique describes the development trajectory for returns, but also estimates the impact of different predictors (in this case, the destination’s image, visitors’ satisfaction, and visitors’ propensity to seek novel experiences) on its parameters. Such insight could be useful to further verify the effects of various predictors, in particular satisfaction and novelty seeking, on immediate and future intentions to return. This study’s latent growth model was conducted in two steps in AMOS 16.0 using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). As such, the current study serves a dual purpose. Foremost, it develops insights into a technique to assess change in return intention over time. Furthermore, it explores the effects of possible predictors on revisit behavior patterns to understand individual differences in travel choice over time. The paper begins with a literature review on revisit intent and its determinants. Next, we propose and test a latent growth model using consumer data to explain intention to return. After presenting the findings, this paper provides implications for both industry practitioners and academia. Finally, avenues for further research are proposed.
Section snippets
Revisit intention
An avant-garde study of destination revisit intention dates back to the exploratory work of Gyte and Phelps (1989), who noted that British travelers to Spain show a resurgent intention to return in the future. These early results were refined by Baloglue and Erickson (1998) in their investigation of international repeat visits to Mediterranean destinations, which found that most travelers to a destination are likely to switch to another destination for subsequent trips; but that many do hope to
The proposed hypothetical model
Fig. 1 depicts the latent growth curve model. The hypothesized causal relationships between the different variables are apparent: image → satisfaction → initial status; image → satisfaction → shape factor; novelty → initial status; novelty → shape factor. Initial status and shape factor are, respectively, the intercept and slope of the growth curve over time.
Research methodology
Data was collected using an online questionnaire administered in February 2009 to French, English, and German travelers aged 18 years and older. Survey participants were chosen randomly from panels of respondents that represent each country’s aggregate demographics. Well-established destinations represent the ideal ground to test repeat visitations. Moreover, because destinations close to a traveler’s residence might cause spurious repeat visits (Yim & Kannan, 1999), a screening question
Analysis of results
Latent growth structural equation modeling, using AMOS 16.0 (Ferrer et al., 2004, Schumacker and Lomax, 2004), was implemented to test the set of hypotheses for the effects of destination image, satisfaction, and novelty seeking on the occurrence and development of revisit intentions over the four time periods studied. The latent growth model was analyzed in two steps (Kline, 2004). The first step required analyzing a change model that involves just the repeated measure variable—namely,
Conclusions, discussion, and implications
In the tourism literature, some studies have considered temporal issues in researching revisit intention. These studies have investigated discrepancies in the effects of different antecedents on destination revisit intention measured at different time points. These studies remained static, however, because the cross-sectional nature of each empirical study does not incorporate change as a measurable variable; namely, revisits over time. The present work contributes to the literature as it used
Limitations and further research
As with all research, the current study has several limitations. Firstly tourists’ satisfaction was measured using a single measurement item, which may be a simplistic approach. Using multiple dimensions would be more appropriate and generate more robust findings. Thus, future studies should consider utilizing a model that integrates a multi-variable approach to measuring satisfaction. Technically speaking, using multi-dimensional latent factors for both constructs (i.e., image and
References (92)
The theory of planned behavior
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
(1991)- et al.
Quality, satisfaction, and behavior intentions
Annals of Tourism Research
(2000) - et al.
Tourism image, evaluation variables and after purchase behaviour: inter-relationship
Tourism Management
(2001) User satisfaction and product development in urban tourism
Tourism Management
(1998)- et al.
How destination image and evaluative factors affect behavioral intentions?
Tourism Management
(2007) - et al.
Examining the structural relationships of destination image, tourist satisfaction and destination loyalty: an integrated approach
Tourism Management
(2008) Rethinking the sociology of tourism
Annals of Tourism Research
(1979)Motivation for pleasure vacation
Journal of Leisure Research
(1979)- et al.
Choice set propositions in destination decision’s
Annals of Tourism Research
(1993) - et al.
Assessing the effects of quality, value, and customer satisfaction on consumer behavioral intentions in service environments
Journal of Retailing
(2000)
Repeat visits to attractions: a preliminary economic analysis
Tourism Management
HISTOQUAL: the development of a historic houses assessment scale
Tourism Management
Insights into the repeat vacation phenomenon
Annals of Tourism Research
Testing a model of pull production: a paradigm for manufacturing research using structural equation modeling
Journal of Operations Management
Repeaters’ behavior at two distinct destinations
Annals of Tourism Research
Korea’s destination image formed by the 2002 world cup
Annals of Tourism Research
Measuring novelty seeking in tourism
Annals of Tourism Research
Forecasting tourism demand: a comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods
International Journal of Forecasting
First-time and repeat visitors to New Zealand
Tourism Management
An examination of golf vacationers’ novelty
Annals of Tourism Research
An online prepurchase intentions model: the role of intention to search
Journal of Retailing
An assessment of the relationship between service quality and customer satisfaction in the formation of consumers’ purchase intention
Journal of Retailing
Consumer behavioral loyalty: a segmentation model and analysis
Journal of Business Research
An examination of the effects of motivation and satisfaction on destination loyalty: a structural model
Tourism Management
Repeat visitation in mature sun and sand holiday destinations
Journal of Travel Research
Customer satisfaction, market share and profitability: findings from Sweden
Journal of Marketing
Customer satisfaction and retention across firms
Past visits and the intention to revisit a destination: place attachment as the mediator and novelty seeking as the moderator
Journal of Tourism Studies
Destination loyalty and switching behavior of travelers: a Markov analysis
Tourism Analysis
Customer satisfaction in the hotel industry: meaning and measurement
Hospitality Research Journal
The role of novelty in the pleasure travel experience
Journal of Travel Research
The role of variety seeking in short and long run revisit intentions in holiday destinations
International Journal of Culture, Tourism and Hospitality Research
Global wine tourism
An investigation of tourists’ destination loyalty and preferences
International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management
Customer portfolio development: modelling destination adopters, inactives and rejecters
Journal of Travel Research
Consumer psychology of tourism, hospitality and leisure
Tourism motivations: an appraisal
Annals of Tourism Research
The demand for local government authority museums: management issues and hard evidence
Local Government Studies
Modelling with LISREL: a guide for uninitiated
Modeling developmental processes using latent growth structural equation methodology
Applied Psychological Measurement
The psychology of attitudes
The meaning and measurement of destination image
The Journal of Tourism Studies
The neglected variety drive: a useful concept for consumer behavior
Journal of Consumer Research
Image differences between prospective, first-time, and repeat visitors to the Lower Rio Grand Valley
Journal of Travel Research
Temporal destination loyalty: a structural initiation
Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research
Cited by (347)
Deconstructing consumers’ low-carbon tourism promotion preference and its consequences: A heuristic-systematic model
2023, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism ManagementMountain winter getaways: Excitement versus boredom
2023, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and TourismAnticipated emotional solidarity, emotional reasoning, and travel intention: A comparison of two destination image models
2023, Tourism Management PerspectivesTourism destination loyalty in“rushing to Zibo for barbecue” from the perspective of scales
2024, Progress in GeographyTourist experiences: Insights from psychology
2024, Tourist Experiences: Insights from PsychologyEffect of tourist satisfaction on revisit intention in Can Tho City, Vietnam
2024, Cogent Business and Management