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MODELLING SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENCES IN MORTALITY USING A NEW AFFLUENCE INDEX

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 June 2019

Andrew J.G. Cairns ,
Malene Kallestrup-Lamb ,
Carsten Rosenskjold ,
David Blake  and
Kevin Dowd
Andrew J.G. Cairns*
Affiliation:
Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, UK Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK E-mail: A.J.G.Cairns@hw.ac.uk
Malene Kallestrup-Lamb
Affiliation:
Department of Economics and Business Economics, Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (CREATES) Aarhus University, Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark E-mail: mkallestrup@econ.au.dk
Carsten Rosenskjold
Affiliation:
Department of Economics and Business Economics, Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (CREATES) Aarhus University, Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark E-mail: mkallestrup@econ.au.dk
David Blake
Affiliation:
Pensions Institute, Cass Business School, City University of London, London EC1Y 8TZ, UK E-mail: D.Blake@city.ac.uk
Kevin Dowd
Affiliation:
Durham University Business School Durham DH1 3LB, UK E-mail: kevin.dowd@durham.ac.uk
*
E-mail: A.J.G.Cairns@hw.ac.uk.
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Abstract

We introduce a new modelling framework to explain socio-economic differences in mortality in terms of an affluence index that combines information on individual wealth and income. The model is illustrated using data on older Danish males over the period 1985–2012 reported in the Statistics Denmark national register database. The model fits the historical mortality data well, captures their key features, generates smoothed death rates that allow us to work with a larger number of sub-groups than has previously been considered feasible, and has plausible projection properties.

Keywords

Affluence indexDanish mortality dataCBD-X modelgravity modelmultipopulation mortality modellingforward correlation term structureJ11C53G22
Type
Research Article
Information
ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA , Volume 49 , Issue 3 , September 2019 , pp. 555 - 590
Copyright
© Astin Bulletin 2019 

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