Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
  • Cited by 50
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Online publication date:
June 2012
Print publication year:
2011
Online ISBN:
9780511974120

Book description

Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.

Reviews

'… a timely topic, and a very interesting book … It is very detailed and academically rigorous …'

Charles K. Davis Source: Reviews.com

'The book provides a scientific framework apt to evaluate the quality of risk assessments and in particular their flexibility to specifically required purposes … The book gives useful tools for graduate students and researchers as well for professionals.'

Source: Zentralblatt MATH

Refine List

Actions for selected content:

Select all | Deselect all
  • View selected items
  • Export citations
  • Download PDF (zip)
  • Save to Kindle
  • Save to Dropbox
  • Save to Google Drive

Save Search

You can save your searches here and later view and run them again in "My saved searches".

Please provide a title, maximum of 40 characters.
×

Contents

References
Abrahamsen, E. B. and Aven, T. (2011). Safety oriented bubble diagrams in project risk management. International Journal of Performability Engineering, 7(1), 91–96.
Abrahamsen, E. B., Aven, T. and Røed, W. (2010). Communication of cost-effectiveness of safety measures by use of a new visualizing g tool, Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications, 2(4), 38–46.
Abramson, L. R. (1981). Some misconceptions about the foundations of risk analysis. Risk Analysis, 1, 229–230.
Ale, B. J. M. (2002). Risk assessment practices in The Netherlands. Safety Science, 40:105–126.
Ale, B., Bellamy, L. J., Boom, R.et al. (2009). Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, 1433–1441.
Anoop, M. B. and Rao, K. B. (2008). Determination of bounds on failure probability in the presence of hybrid uncertainties. Sadhana, 33, 753–765.
Apostolakis, G. E. (1990) The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. Science, 250, 1359–1364.
Apostolakis, G. E. (ed.) (1988). Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 23.
Apostolakis, G. E. (1990). The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. Science, 250, 1359–1364.
Apostolakis, G. E. (2004). How useful is quantitative risk assessment?Risk Analysis, 24, 515–520.
Apostolakis, G. E. and Pickett, S. E. (1998). Deliberation: Integrating analytical results into environmental decisions involving multiple stakeholders, Risk Analysis, 18(5), 621–634.
,AS/NZS 4360 (2004). Australian/New Zealand Standard: Risk management.
Aven, T. (1986) Formulae for the average unavailability (MFDT) of a coherent system with periodically tested components. Microelectronics and Reliability, 26, 283–288.
Aven, T. (1992). Reliability and Risk Analysis. London: Elsevier.
Aven, T. (2003). Foundations of Risk Analysis. New Jersey: Wiley.
Aven, T. (2004). Risk analysis and science. International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering, 11, 1–15.
Aven, T. (2006). On the precautionary principle, in the context of different perspectives on risk. Risk Management: an International Journal, 8, 192–205.
Aven, T. (2007a). A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis and management covering both safety and security. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 92, 745–754.
Aven, T. (2007b). On the ethical justification for the use of risk acceptance criteria. Risk Analysis, 27, 303–312.
Aven, T. (2008a). Risk Analysis, New Jersey: Wiley.
Aven, T. (2008b). A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93, 768–775.
Aven, T. (2009a). Perspectives on risk in a decision-making context – Review and discussion. Safety Science, 47, 798–806.
Aven, T. (2009b). Safety is the antonym of risk for some perspectives of risk. Safety Science, 47, 925–930.
Aven, T. (2009c). A new scientific framework for quantitative risk assessmentsInternational Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, 1(1), 67–77.
Aven, T. (2010a). Misconceptions of Risk, Chichester: Wiley.
Aven, T. (2010b). Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 95, 195–201.
Aven, T. (2010c). On the need for restricting the probabilistic analysis in risk assessments to variability. Risk Analysis, 30(3), 354–360.
Aven, T. (2010d). Reply to discussants on “The need for restricting the probabilistic analysis in risk assessments to variability”. Risk Analysis, 30 (3), 381–384.
Aven, T. (2010e). On how to define, understand and describe risk. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 95, 623–631.
Aven, T. (2010f). A holistic framework for conceptualising and describing risk. In Proceedings SSARS conference, Gdansk 20–25 June, 2010.
Aven, T. (2010g). On different types of uncertainties in the context of the precautionary principle. Revised and resubmitted Risk Analysis.
Aven, T. (2010h). Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practice. Revised and resubmitted Reliability Engineering and System Safety.
Aven, T. (2010i). Shaky foundations: common misconceptions in risk assessment and management, and ideas for fixing them. Revised and resubmitted Risk Analysis.
Aven, T. (2011). On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability and resilience. Risk Analysis. To appear.
Aven, T. and Abrahamsen, E. B. (2007). On the use of cost-benefit analysis in ALARP processes. International Journal of Performability Engineering, 3, 345–353.
Aven, T., Asche, F., Lindøe, P., Toft, A., Wiencke, H. S. (2010). A framework for decision support on HSE regulations, Como, Italy: SRA Europe. 2005. In Risks Challenging Publics, Scientists and Governments, ed. Menoni, S.. London: CRC Press, pp. 49–56.
Aven, T. and Flage, R. (2009). Use of decision criteria based on expected values to support decision-making in a production assurance and safety setting. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 94, 1491–1498.
Aven, T. and Guikema, S. (2010) Whose uncertainty assessments (probability distributions) does a risk assessment report: the analysts' or the experts'? Paper revised and resubmitted to Reliability Engineering and System Safety.
Aven, T. and Heide, B. (2009). Reliability and validity of risk analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, 1862–1868.
Aven, T. and Jensen, U. (1999). Stochastic Models in Reliability, New York: Springer.
Aven, T. and Nøkland, T. E. (2010). On the use of uncertainty importance measures in reliability and risk analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 95, 127–133.
Aven, T. and Renn, O. (2009a). On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain. Journal of Risk Research, 12, 1–11.
Aven, T. and Renn, O. (2009b). The role of quantitative risk assessments for characterizing risk and uncertainty and delineating appropriate risk management options, with special emphasis on terrorism risk. Risk Analysis, 29, 587–600.
Aven, T. and Renn, O. (2011) Risk Management and Governance. New York: Springer.
Aven, T., Renn, O. and Rosa, E. (2010) The ontological status of the concept of risk. Paper submitted for possible publication.
Aven, T. and Vinnem, J. E. (2007). Risk Management, with Applications from the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry, New York: Springer.
Aven, T., Vinnem, J. E. and Røed, W. (2006). On the use of goals, quantitative criteria and requirements in safety management. Risk Management: an International Journal, 8, 118–132.
Aven, T. and Zio, E. (2011). Treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision-making. Accepted for publication in Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 96, 64–74.
Baraldi, P. and Zio, E. (2008) A combined Monte Carlo and possibilistic approach to uncertainty propagation in event tree analysis. Risk Analysis, 28 (5), 1309–1325.
Bedford, T. and Cooke, R. (2001). Probabilistic Risk Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Berenson, M. L., Levine, D. M. and Rindskopf, (1988). Applied Statistics, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Berger, J. (1994). An overview of robust Bayesian analysis. Test, 3, 5–124.
Bergman, B. (2009). Conceptualistic pragmatism: a framework for Bayesian analysis?IIE Transactions, 41, 86–93.
Bernardo, J. and Smith, A. (1994). Bayesian Theory. New York: Wiley.
Bernoulli, J. (1713) Wahrrscheinlichkeitsrechnung, third and fourth parts, Ostwald, 506. Quarterly J. of Economics. Klassiker der exakten Wissenschaften, 108, 1896, Leipzig, translation of “ars conjectandi,” published in 1713.
,Cabinet Office (2002). Risk: improving government's capability to handle risk and uncertainty. Strategy unit report. UK.
Campbell, S. (2005). Determining overall risk. Journal of Risk Research, 8, 569–581.
Carpi, A. and Egger, A. E. (2003) The Scientific Method. Visionlearning Vol. SCI-1 (1), 2003. www.visionlearning.com/library/module_viewer.php?mid=45. Accessed 3 March 2010.
Cooke, R. M. (1991). Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. New York: Oxford University Press.
Coolen, F. P. A. and Utkin, L. V. (2007). Imprecise reliability: A concise overview. In Risk, Reliability and Societal Safety, eds. Aven, T. and Vinnem, J. E., Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference 2007 (ESREL 2007), Stavanger, Norway, 25–27 June 2007. London: Taylor & Francis Group, pp. 1959–1966.
Cumming, R. B. (1981). Is Risk Assessment A Science?Risk Analysis, 1, 1–3.
Finetti, B. (1974). Theory of Probability, New York: Wiley.
Laplace, P. S. (1814). Theorie analytique des probabilities. Paris: Courcier Imprimeur.
Dempster, A. (1967). Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 38, 325–339.
Rocquigny, E., Devictor, N. and Tarantola, S. (eds.) (2008). Uncertainty in Industrial Practice. A guide to quantitative uncertainty management. New Jersey: Wiley.
Devooght, J. (1998). Model uncertainty and model inaccuracy. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 59, 171–185.
Douglas, E. J. (1983). Managerial Economics: Theory, Practice and Problems, 2nd edn. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Dubois, D. (2006). Possibility theory and statistical reasoning. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, 47–69.
Dubois, D. (2010). Representation, propagation and decision issues in risk analysis under incomplete probabilistic information. Risk Analysis, 30, 361–368.
Dubois, D. and Prade, H. (1988). Possibility Theory. New York: Plenum Press.
Dubois, D., Prade, H. and Sandri, S. (1993). On possibility/probability transformations. In Fuzzy Logic: State of the Art, eds. Lowen, R. and Roubens, M.. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 103–112.
Ersdal, G. and Aven, T. (2008). Risk management and its ethical basis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93, 197–205.
,European Commission/Health and Consumer Protection Directorate General, Directorate C (2000). Scientific Opinions: First Report on the Harmonisation of Risk Assessment Procedures, EU, Brussels.
,European Commission (2003). Final Report on Setting the Scientific Frame for the Inclusion of New Quality of Life Concerns in the Risk Assessment Process, EU, Brussels.
Ferson, S. and Ginzburg, L. R. (1996). Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54, 133–144.
Flage, R. and Aven, T. (2009). Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA). Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications, 2(13), 9–18.
Flage, R., Aven, T. and Zio, E. (2009) Alternative representations of uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis – review and discussion. In Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis. Theory, Methods and Applications, eds. Martorell, S., Soares, C. Guedes and Barnett, J., Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference 2008 (ESREL 2008), Valencia, Spain, 22–25 September 2008. London: CRC Press pp. 2081–2091.
Flage, R., Baraldi, P., Ameruso, F., Zio, E. & Aven, T. (2010). Handling epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis by probabilistic and possibilistic approaches. In Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Applications, eds. Bris, R., Soares, C. Guedes and Martorell, S. Supplement Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference 2009 (ESREL 2009), Prague, Czech Republic, 7–10 September 2009.
Granger Morgan, M. and Henrion, M. (1990) Uncertainty. A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Garrick, B. J. (2010). Interval analysis versus probabilistic analysis. Risk Analysis, 3, 369–70.
Graham, J. D. (1995). Verifiability isn't everything. Risk Analysis, 15, 109.
Guikema, S. and Aven, T. (2010) Is ALARP applicable to the management of terrorist risks?Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 95, 823–827.
Gärdenfors, P. and Sahlin, N -E. (1988). Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making. In Decision, Probability, and Utility, eds. Gärdenfors, P. and Sahlin, N -E.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 313–334.
Haimes, Y. Y. (2004). Risk Modelling, Assessment, and Management, 2nd edn. New Jersey: Wiley.
Hamada, M. S., Wilson, A. G., Reese, C. S. and Martz, H. F. (2008). Bayesian Reliability. New York: Springer.
Helton, J. C. (1994). Treatment of uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems. Risk Analysis, 14, 483–511.
Helton, J. C., Johnson, J. D., Sallaberry, C. J. and Storlie, C. B. (2006). Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 91, 1175–1209.
Hertz, D. B. and Thomas, H. (1983). Risk Analysis and its Applications. Chichester: Wiley.
,HSE (2001). Reducing Risk, Protecting People. HSE Books, ISBN 0 71762151 0.
,HSE (2006). Offshore Installations (Safety Case) Regulations 2005 regulation 12 demonstrating compliance with the relevant statutory provisions.
,HSE (2000). Offshore Hydrocarbon Release Statistics, 1999, Offshore Technology Report OTO 079, HSE Offshore Safety Division (OSD), January 2000.
Hollnagel, E. (2004) Barriers and Accident Prevention, Aldershot: Ashgate.
Hollnagel, E., Woods, D. D. and Leveson, N., eds. (2006). Resilience Engineering, Concepts and Precepts. Burlington: Ashgate.
Holton, G. A. (2004). Defining risk. Financial Analysis Journal, 60, 19–25.
,House of Lords (2006). Government Policy on the Management of Risk. Volume 1: Report. London: The Stationery Office.
Huber, W. A. (2010). Ignorance Is Not Probability. Risk Analysis, 3, 371–376.
,IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) (1995). Guidelines for Integrated Risk Assessment and Management in Large Industrial Areas, Technical Document: IAEA–TECDOC PGVI–CIJV, IAEA, Vienna.
,IEC (1993). Guidelines for Risk Analysis of Technological Systems, Report IEC–CD (Sec) 381 issued by Technical Committee QMS/23, European Community, Brussels.
,IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change (2007). Geneva, Switzerland. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm. Accessed 23 April 2010.
IPCS and WHO (World Health Organization) (2004). Risk Assessment Terminology, Geneva: WHO.
IRGC (International Risk Governance Council) (2005). Risk Governance – Towards an Integrative Approach, White Paper no 1, O. Renn with an Annex by Graham, P., Geneva: IRGC.
,ISO (2002). Risk Management Vocabulary. ISO/IEC Guide 73.
,ISO (2009a). Risk Management – Vocabulary. Guide 73:2009.
,ISO (2009b). Risk Management – Principles and guidelines, ISO 31000:2009.
Jones-Lee, M. and Aven, T. (2009). The role of social cost-benefit analysis in societal decision-making under large uncertainties with application to robbery at a cash depot. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94 (2009) 1954–1961.
Jones-Lee, M. and Aven, T. (2010). What does the ALARP principle really mean? Revised and resubmitted Reliability Engineering and System Safety.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty. Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.
KaminskiJr., J., Riera, J. D., Menezes, R. C. R., Miguel, L. F. F. (2008). Model uncertainty in the assessment of transmission line towers subjected to cable rupture. Engineering Structures, 30, 2935–2944.
Kaplan, S. (1991). Risk assessment and risk management – basic concepts and terminology. In Risk Management: Expanding Horizons in Nuclear Power and Other Industries. Boston, MA: Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, pp. 11–28.
Kaplan, S. and Garrick, B. J. (1981). On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis, 1, 11–27.
Keeney, R. L. and McDaniels, T. (2001). A Framework to guide thinking and analysis regarding climate change policies, Risk Analysis, 6 (12), 989–1000.
Kettunen, P. (1998). Globalisation and the Criteria of “Us” – A Historical Perspective on the Discussion of the Nordic Model and New Challenges, in Global Redefining of Working Life, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen.
Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Washington DC: Beard Books. Reprinted 2002.
Kröger, W. (2005). Risk analyses and protection strategies for operation of nuclear power plants. In Landolt-Börnstein New Series Vol. VIII/3B: Advanced Materials and Technologies/Energy. Berlin: Springer.
Kröger, W. (2006). Reflections on current and future nuclear safety, ATW-International Journal for Nuclear Power, 51, July, 331–337.
Kujawski, E. and Miller, G. A. (2007). Quantitative risk-based analysis for military counterterrorism systems. Systems Engineering, 10, 273–289.
Kumamoto, H. (2007). Satisfying Safety Goals by Probabilistic Risk Assessment. London: Springer.
Kørte, J., Aven, T. and Rosness, R., 2002. On the use of risk analysis in different decision settings. In Proceedings from the ESREL 2002 Conference, 19–20, March, Lyon, France, vol. I, pp. 175–180.
Lauridsen, K., Christou, M., Amendola, A.et al. (2001). Assessing the uncertainties in the process of risk analysis of chemical establishments. In Safety and Reliability. Towards a Safer World, eds Zio, E., Demichela, M. and Piccinini, N., Proceedings. Vol. I. ESREL 2001, Torino (IT), 16–20 Sep 2001. pp. 592–606.
Leveson, N. (2004) A new accident model for engineering safer systems. Safety Science, 42, 237–270.
Leveson, N. (2007) Modeling and Analyzing Risk in Complex Socio-Technical Systems. NeTWork workshop, Berlin27–29 Sept. 2007.
Levy, H. and Sarnat, M. (1994). Capital Investment and Financial Decisions. 5th edn. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Lindley, D. (1985). Making Decisions. New York: Wiley.
Lindley, D. V. (2000). The philosophy of statistics. The Statistician, 49, 293–337. With discussions.
Lindley, D. V. (2006). Understanding Uncertainty. New Jersey: Wiley.
Lindley, D. V., Tversky, A. and Brown, R. V. (1979). On the reconciliation of probability assessments (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 142, 146–180.
Lirer, L., Petrosino, P. and Alberico, I. (2001) Hazard assessment at volcanic fields: the Campi Flegrei case history. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 112, 53–73.
Lowrance, W. (1976). Of Acceptable Risk – Science and the Determination of Safety. Los Altos, CA: William Kaufmann Inc.
Luxhøj, J. T., Choopavang, A. and Arendt, D. N. (2001). Risk Assessment of Organizational Factors in Aviation Systems. Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 9 (3), 135–174.
,Lyse (2007). Capra, G., Cleaver, P., Chester, A. and Phillips, A. QRA of the proposed Lyse Gass LNG base load export terminal, Advantica, R100-PB-S-SR0001, 11.04.2007.
,Lyse (2008). Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) Lyse LNG base load plant Train 1, Linde, R100-LE-S-RS0003, 25.08.2007.
Löfstedt, R. E. (2003). The precautionary principle: risk, regulation and politics. Trans IchemE, 81, 36–43.
Mandel, D. (2007). Toward a concept of risk for effective military decision making. Defence R&D Canada – Toronto. Technical Report. DRDC Toronto TR2007–124.
Michaels, D. (2008). Doubt is their Product. New York: Oxford University Press.
Mohaghegh, Z., Kazemi, R. and Mosleh, A. (2009). Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, 1000–1018.
Morgan, M. G. and Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mosleh, A. and Bier, V. M. (1996). Uncertainty about probability: a reconciliation with the subjectivist viewpoint. Systems, Man and Cybernetics. Part A: Systems and Humans, 26, 303–311.
Möller, N., Hansson, S. O. and Person, M. (2006). Safety is more than the antonym of risk. Journal of Applied Philosophy, 23, 419–432.
Nilsen, T. and Aven, T. (2003). Models and model uncertainty in the context of risk analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 79, 309–317.
North, W. (2010) Probability theory and consistent reasoning. Risk Analysis, 30, 377–380.
NRC (National Research Council) (1983). Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
,NRC (1996). Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society. National Research Council, Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
,NRC (2009). Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
,NRC (2010). Defense-in-depth. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/glossary/defense-in-depth.html. Accessed 10 February 2010.
O'Brien, M. (2000). Making Better Environmental Decisions. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Östergaard, C., Dogliani, M., Soares, C. Guedes, Parmentier, G. and Pedersen, P. T. (1996). Measures of model uncertainty in the assessment of primary stresses in ship structures. Marine Structures, 9, 427–447.
Paté-Cornell, M. E. (1996). Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54(2–3), 95–111.
Paté-Cornell, E. and Dillon, R. (2001). Probabilistic risk analysis for the NASA space shuttle: a brief history and current work. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 74, 345–352.
,PSA (2001). Risk Management Regulations. Petroleum Safety Authority Norway.
,PSA (2002). The Facilities Regulations. Regulations Relating to Design and Outfitting of Facilities etc. in the Petroleum Activities, 2002. Petroleum Safety Authority Norway. www.ptil.no/regelverk/category21.html. Accessed 10 May 2010.
,PSA (2007). Guidelines to Regulations Relating to Material and Information in the Petroleum Activities (The Information Duty Regulations), §13. Petroleum Safety Authority Norway.
,PSA (2009). Trend in Risk level in the Petroleum Activity. Summary report 2008. 23.4.2009. Petroleum Safety Authority Norway.
,Purple book (2008). Guidelines Risk Calculations (Purple Book) BEVI Module C, Version 3.0 Date 1 January 2008: Modelling specific BEVI categories (BEVI is the abbreviation of the decree implementing the SEVESO directive).
Rasmussen, J. (1997) Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem. Safety Science, 27 (2/3), 183–213.
Rechard, R. P. (1999). Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment. Risk Analysis, 19(5):763–807.
Rechard, R. P. (2000). Historical background on performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 69 (3), 5–46.
Reid, S. G. (1992). Acceptable risk. In Engineering Safety, ed. Blockley, D. I.. New York: McGraw-Hill, pp. 138–166.
Renn, O. (1992). Concepts of risk: A classification. In Social Theories of Risk, eds. Krimsky, S. and Golding, D.. Westport: Praeger, pp. 53–79.
Renn, O. (1998). Three decades of risk research: accomplishments and new challenges. Journal of Risk Research, 1 (1), 49–71.
Renn, O. (2008). Risk Governance. London: Earthscan.
,Research Council of Norway: RCN (2000). Quality in Norwegian Research – An overview of Terms, Methods and Means (In Norwegian only). Oslo.
Rosa, E. A. (1998). Metatheoretical foundations for post-normal risk. Journal of Risk Research, 1, 15–44.
Rosa, E. A. (2003). The logical structure of the social amplification of risk framework (SARF); metatheoretical foundations and policy implications. In The Social Amplification of Risk, eds. Pidgeon, N., Kasperson, R. E. and Slovic, P.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 47–79.
Rosness, R (2009) A contingency model of decision-making involving risk of accidental loss. Safety Science, 47, 807–812.
Ross, S. M. (1993). Probability Models, 5th edn. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
Røed, W., Mosleh, A., Vinnem, J. E. and Aven, T. (2009). On the use of hybrid causal logic method in offshore risk analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, 455–455.
Sahlin, N -E. (1993). On higher order beliefs. In Philosophy of Probability, ed. Dubucs, J -P.. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Sandin, P. (1999). Dimensions of the precautionary principle. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 5, 889–907.
Sandin, P., Peterson, M., Hansson, S. O., Rudén, C. and Juthe, A. (2002). Five charges against the precautionary principle. Journal of Risk Research, 5, 287–299.
Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T.et al. (2008). Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. New York: Wiley.
Shafer, G. (1976). A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Singpurwalla, N. D. (1988). Foundational Issues in Reliability and Risk Analysis. SIAM Review, 30, 264–282.
Singpurwalla, N. (2006). Reliability and Risk. A Bayesian Perspective. New York: Wiley.
Sinn, H. -W. (1980) A rehabilitation of the principle of insufficient reason. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 94 (3), 493–506.
Steen, R. and Aven, T. (2010). A risk perspective suitable for resilience engineering. Safety Science, 49, 292–297.
Stirling, A. (1998). Risk at a turning point?Journal of Risk Research, 1, 97–109.
Stirling, A. (2007). Science, precaution and risk assessment: towards more measured and constructive policy debate. European Molecular Biology Organisation Reports, 8, 309–315.
Stirling, A. and Gee, D. (2002). Science, precaution and practice. Public Health Reports, 117(6), 521–533.
Stirling, A., Renn, O. and Zwanenberg, P. (2006). A framework for the precautionary governance of food safety: integrating science and participation in the social appraisal of risk. In Implementing the Precautionary Principle, eds. Fisher, E., Jones, J. and Schomberg, R.. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 284–315.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. London: Penguin.
Tickner, J. and Kriebel, D. (2006). The role of science and precaution in environmental and public health policy. In Implementing the Precautionary Principle, eds. Fisher, E., Jones, J., and Schomberg, R.. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing.
,US Congress. (2004). Homeland Security: The Balance Between Crisis and Consequence Management Through Training and Assistance. Hearing before the Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism, and Homeland Security of the Committee on the Judiciary, House of Representatives, 108th Congress, November 20, 2003.
,US National Research Council (1996). Understanding Risk, eds. Stern, P. C. and Fineberg, V.. Washington D.C.: National Academy Press.
Eijndhoven, J. C. M. and Ravenzwaaij, A. (2006). Optimizing risk analysis relating to external safety in the Netherlands. Risk Analysis, 9, 495–504.
Vatn, J. (2007). Societal Security – A case study related to a cash depot. In Risk, Reliability and Societal Safety, eds. Aven, T. and Vinnem, J. E., Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference 2007 (ESREL 2007), Stavanger, Norway, 25–27 June 2007. London: Taylor & Francis Group, pp. 2599–2607.
Vatn, J. (2010). Issues related to localization of an LNG plant. In Reliability, Risk and Safety, eds. Bris, R., Soares, C. Guedes and Martorell, S.. London: Taylor & Francis Group, vol. II, pp. 917–921.
Vatn, J, Vatn, G. A, and Drottz-Sjøber, B-M. (2008). Societal security – a case study related to an LNG facility, Social Security Conference, Norwegian Research Foundation.
Vercelli, A. (1995). From soft uncertainty to hard environmental uncertainty, Economie applique´e, 48(2), 251–269.
Verma, M. and Verter, V. (2007). Railroad transportation of dangerous goods: Population exposure to airborne toxins. Computers and Operations Research, 34, 1287–1303.
Vinnem, J. E. (2010). Risk analysis and risk acceptance criteria in the planning processes of hazardous facilities – a case of an LNG plant in an urban area. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 95 (6), 662–670.
Vinnem, J. E., Aven, T., Husebø, T., Seljelid, J. and Tveit, O. (2006). Major hazard risk indicators for monitoring of trends in the Norwegian offshore petroleum sector. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 91, 778–791.
Vose, D. (2008). Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide. 3rd edn, Chichester: Wiley.
Walley, P. (1991). Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. New York: Chapman and Hall.
Weick, K. and Sutcliffe, K. M. (2001). Managing the Unexpected. San Francisco: Jossey Bass.
Weinberg, A. M. (1981). Reflections on Risk Assessment. Risk Analysis, 1, 5–7.
Weinberg, A. M. (1972). Science and Trans-science, Minerun, 10, 209–222.
Wiener, J. B. and Rogers, M. D. (2002). Comparing precaution in the United States and Europe. Journal of Risk Research, 5, 317–349.
Willis, H. H. (2007). Guiding resource allocations based on terrorism risk. Risk Analysis, 27(3), 597–606.
Winkler, R. L. (1996). Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 85, 127–132.
Wolfs, F. (2009). Introduction to the Scientific Method – An explanation on what the scientific method is and does. http://teacher.nsrl.rochester.edu/phy_labs/AppendixE/AppendixE.html. Accessed 3 March 2010.
Zio, E. (2009). Reliability engineering: Old problems and new challenges. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, 125–141.
Zio, E. and Apostolakis, G. E. (1996). Two methods for the structured assessment of model uncertainty by experts in performance assessments of radioactive waste repositories. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54, 225–241.

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Book summary page views

Total views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between #date#. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.