Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-mp689 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T23:05:56.900Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Partisanship and Economic Behavior: Do Partisan Differences in Economic Forecasts Predict Real Economic Behavior?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2009

ALAN S. GERBER  and
GREGORY A. HUBER
ALAN S. GERBER*
Affiliation:
Yale University
GREGORY A. HUBER*
Affiliation:
Yale University
*
Alan S. Gerber is Professor, Department of Political Science, Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, 77 Prospect Street, PO Box 208209, New Haven, CT 06520-8209 (alan.gerber@yale.edu).
Gregory A. Huber is Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, 77 Prospect Street, PO Box 208209, New Haven, CT 06520-8209 (gregory.huber@yale.edu).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Survey data regularly show that assessments of current and expected future economic performance are more positive when a respondent's partisanship matches that of the president. To determine if this is a survey artifact or something deeper, we investigate whether partisanship is associated with behavioral differences in economic decisions. We construct a new data set of county-level quarterly taxable sales to examine the effect of partisanship on consumption. Consumption change following a presidential election is correlated with a county's partisan complexion, a result consistent with partisans acting outside the domain of politics in accordance with the opinions they express in surveys. These results support an expansive view of the role of partisanship in mass politics and help validate surveys as a method for studying political behavior.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 103 , Issue 3 , August 2009 , pp. 407 - 426
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Anderson, Barbara A., and Silver, Brian D.. 1986. “Measurement and Mismeasurement of the Validity of the Self-Reported Vote.” American Journal of Political Science 30 (4): 771–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ansolabehere, Stephen, Snyder, James M. Jr., and Stewart, Charles III. 2001. “Candidate Positioning in U.S. House Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (1): 136–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry. 2000. “Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952–1996.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (1): 35–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry. 2002. “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions.” Political Behavior 24 (2): 117–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry. 2006. “Priming and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns.” In Capturing Campaign Effects, eds. Brady, Henry E. and Johnston, Richard. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 78–112.Google Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 1999. “The Two Faces of Public Opinion.” American Journal of Political Science 43 (4): 1209–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bertrand, Marianne, Deflo, Esther, and Mullainathan, Sendil. 2004. “How Much Should We Trust Difference-in-Differences Estimates?” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119 (1): 249–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, Olivier J., and Fischer, Stanley. 1989. Lectures on Macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip, Miller, Warren, and Stokes, Donald. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, Brady, David W., and Cogan, John F.. 2002. “Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members’ Voting.” American Political Science Review 96 (1): 127–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carroll, Christopher D., Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., and Wilcox, David W.. 1994. “Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?” The American Economic Review 84 (5): 1397–408.Google Scholar
Conover, Pamela, Feldman, Stanley, and Knight, Kathleen. 1986. “Judging Inflation and Unemployment: The Origins of Retrospective Evaluations.” Journal of Politics 48 (3): 565–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conover, Pamela, Feldman, Stanley, and Knight, Kathleen. 1987. “The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts.” American Journal of Political Science 31 (3): 559–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics.” In Ideology and Discontent, ed. Apter, David E.. New York: Free Press, 206–61.Google Scholar
De Boef, Suzanna, and Kellstedt, Paul M.. 2004. “The Political (and Economic) Origins of Consumer Confidence.” American Journal of Political Science 48 (4): 633–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., Palmer, Harvey D., and Anderson, Christopher J.. 2000. “Heterogeneity in Perceptions of National Economic Conditions.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (4): 535–652.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael, and Stimson, James. 2000. “Peasants or Bankers Revisited: Eeconomic Expectations and Presidential Approval.” Electoral Studies 19 (2–3): 295–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 2004. “Economic Voting: Micro and Macro Perspectives.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.Google Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Andersen, Robert. 2006. “The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions.” Journal of Politics 68 (1): 194–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Festinger, Leon. 1957. A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Evanston, IL: Row Peterson.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan, and Green, Donald. 1999. “Misperceptions about Perceptual Bias.” Annual Review of Political Science 2 (1): 189–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., and Huber, Gregory A.. Forthcoming. “Partisanship, Political Control, and Economic Assessments.” American Journal of Political Science.Google Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 1996. “The Media's Role in Forming Voters’ Retrospective Evaluations in 1992.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (2): 372–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr., and Munger, Frank. 1959. “Social Determinism and Electoral Decision: The Case of Indiana.” In American Voting Behavior, eds. Burdick, Eugene and Brodbeck, Arthur. Glencoe, IL: Free Press, 291–99.Google Scholar
Lacy, Dean. 2001. “A Theory of Nonseparable Preferences in Survey Responses.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (2): 239–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ladner, Matthew, and Wlezien, Christopher. 2007. “Partisan Preferences, Electoral Prospects, and Economic Expectations.” Comparative Political Studies 40 (5): 571–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lau, Richard R., Sears, David O., and Jessor, Tom. 1990. “Fact or Artifact Revisited: Survey Instrument Effects and Pocketbook Voting.” Political Behavior 12 (3): 217–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levendusky, Matthew S., Pope, Jeremy C., and Jackman, Simon D.. 2008. “Measuring District-Level Partisanship with Implications for the Analysis of U.S. Elections.” The Journal of Politics 70 (3): 736–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Jacoby, William G., Norpoth, Helmut, and Weisberg, Herbert. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ljungqvist, Lars, and Sargent, Thomas J.. 2004. Recursive Macroeconomic Theory. 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy.” American Political Science Review 86 (3): 597–611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meirowitz, Adam. 2005. “Polling Games and Information Revelation in the Downsian Framework.” Games and Economic Behavior 51 (2): 464–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Palmer, Harvey D., and Duch, Raymond M.. 2001. “Do Surveys Provide Representative or Whimsical Assessments of the Economy?” Political Analysis 9 (1): 58–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prior, Markus. 2007. “Is Partisan Bias in Perception of Objective Conditions Real?” Princeton University. Typescript.Google Scholar
Sears, David O., and Lau, Richard R.. 1983. “Inducing Apparently Self-Interested Political Preferences.” American Journal of Political Science 27 (2): 223–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shani, Danielle. 2009. “Knowing Your Colors: Information, Partisan Bias, and Political Perceptions.” Princeton University. Typescript.Google Scholar
Silver, Brian D., Anderson, Barbara A., and Abramson, Paul R.. 1986. “Who Overreports Voting?” American Political Science Review 80 (2): 13–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Suzuki, Motoshi. 1992. “Political Business Cycles in the Public's Mind.” American Political Science Review 86 (4): 989–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Traugott, Michael W., and Katosh, John P.. 1979. “Response Validity in Surveys of Voting Behavior.” Public Opinion Quarterly 43 (3): 359–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trigger, Kaitlyn. 2006. “Partisan Bias in Consumer Behavior.” Yale University. Typescript.Google Scholar
Vavreck, Lynn. 2007. “The Exaggerated Effects of Advertising on Turnout: The Dangers of Self-Reports.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 2 (4): 325–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilcox, Nathaniel T., and Wlezien, Christopher. 1996. “The Contamination of Responses to Survey Items: Economic Perceptions and Political Judgments.” Political Analysis 5 (1): 181–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien, Christopher, Franklin, Mark, and Twiggs, Daniel. 1997. “Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity.” Political Behavior 19 (1): 7–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar