Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-ttngx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-09T15:49:12.728Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Time-Series Behavior of Share Repurchases and Dividends

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2009

Bong-Soo Lee
Affiliation:
blee2@cob.fsu.edu, Department of Finance, College of Business, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306 and blee2@kgsm.kaist.ac.kr, KAIST Graduate School of Finance, 207–43 Cheongryangri 2-dong, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130–722, Republic of Korea
Oliver Meng Rui
Affiliation:
oliver@baf.msmail.cuhk.edu.hk, Faculty of Business Administration, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China

Abstract

Given the growth in the importance and popularity of share repurchases, we use an alternative time-series approach to test two hypotheses on the motives for share repurchases and dividends: the flexibility hypothesis and the substitution hypothesis. By investigating both share repurchase and dividend payout policies in the context of a time-series vector autoregression, we account for the dynamic and multi-dimensional nature of the two payout policies. We find that share repurchases are associated with temporary components of earnings, whereas dividends are not, and that share repurchases and dividends are imperfect substitutes.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bagwell, L. S., and Shoven, J. B.. “Cash Distributions to Shareholders.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3 (1989), 129140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beveridge, S., and Nelson, C. R.. “A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the ‘Business Cycle‘.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 7 (1981), 151174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, O. J., and Quah, D.. “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances.” American Economic Review, 79 (1989), 655673.Google Scholar
DeAngelo, H.; DeAngelo, L.; and Skinner, D.. “Are Dividends Disappearing? Dividend Concentration and the Consolidation of Earnings.” Journal of Financial Economics, 72 (2004), 425456.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A.. “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (1979), 427431.Google Scholar
Dittmar, A. K., and Dittmar, R. F.. “Stock Repurchase Waves: an Explanation of the Trends in Aggregate Corporate Payout Policy.” Working Paper, Indiana University (2002).Google Scholar
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R.. “Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay?Journal of Financial Economics, 60 (2001), 343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fenn, G., and Liang, N.. “Corporate Payout Policy and Managerial Stock Incentives.” Journal of Financial Economics, 60 (2001), 4572.Google Scholar
Fuller, W. A.Introduction to Statistical Time Series. New York, NY: John Wiley (1976).Google Scholar
Grullon, G., and Michaely, R.. “Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis.” Journal of Finance, 57 (2002), 16491684.Google Scholar
Guay, W., and Harford, J.. “The Cash Flow Permanence and Information Content of Dividend Increases vs. Repurchases.” Journal of Financial Economics, 57 (2000), 385416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hess, P. J., and Lee, B. S.. “Stock Returns and Inflation with Supply and Demand Shocks.” Review of Financial Studies, 12 (1999), 12031218.Google Scholar
Jagannathan, M.; Stephens, C. P.; and Weisbach, M. S.. “Financial Flexibility and the Choice between Dividends and Stock Repurchases.” Journal of Financial Economics, 57 (2000), 355384.Google Scholar
Jagannathan, M., and Stephens, C. P.. “Motives for Multiple Open-Market Repurchase Programs.” Financial Management, 32 (2003), 7192.Google Scholar
Jolls, C.Stock Repurchases and Incentive Compensation.” NBER Working Paper 6467 (1998).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahle, K. M.When a Buyback Isn't a Buyback: Open Market Repurchases and Employee Options.” Journal of Financial Economics, 63 (2002), 235261.Google Scholar
Kwiatkowski, D.; Phillips, P. C. B.; Schmidt, P.; and Shin, Y.. “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?Journal of Econometrics, 54 (1992), 159178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, B. S.The Response of Stock Prices to Permanent and Temporary Shocks to Dividends.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 30 (1995), 122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, B. S.Time Series Implications of Aggregate Dividend Behavior.” Review of Financial Studies, 9 (1996), 589618.Google Scholar
Lee, B. S.Permanent, Temporary, and Nonfundamental Components of Stock Prices.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 33 (1998), 132.Google Scholar
Lie, E.Excess Funds and Agency Problems: An Empirical Study of Incremental Cash Disbursement.” Review of Financial Studies, 13 (2000), 219248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lintner, J.Distribution of Incomes of Corporations among Dividends, Retained Earnings, and Taxes.” American Economic Review, 46 (1956), 97113.Google Scholar
Miller, M., and Modigliani, F.. “Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares.” Journal of Business, 34 (1961), 411433.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P., and Perron, P.. “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression.” Biometrika, 75 (1988), 335346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stephens, C. P., and Weisbach, M. S.. “Actual Share Reacquisitions in Open-Market Repurchase Programs.” Journal of Finance, 53 (1998), 313333.Google Scholar
Wansley, J. W.; William, L. R.; and Sarkar, S.. “Managements' View on Share Repurchase and Tender Offer Premiums.” Financial Management, 18 (1989), 97110.Google Scholar