Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-vvkck Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T20:20:19.326Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The End of Revolution?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 August 2009

Extract

Revolution ushered in the modern world, but modernity has killed it. Scholars who examine the causes or contributing conditions of revolutions focus either on structure, agency, or ideas, yet an analysis of each perspective reveals that the alleged causes or conditions have declined or been eliminated. In spite of capitalism's global crisis in the late 1990s, the spread of liberalism and other factors should make revolutions unlikely to occur.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © University of Notre Dame 1999

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Moore, Barrington Jr, Social Order of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon Press, 1966).Google Scholar

2 Skocpol, Theda, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

3 Fukuyama, Francis, “The End of History?National Interest 16(1989): 318.Google Scholar

4 Tilly, Charles, European Revolutions, 1492–1992 (Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 1994), pp. 78.Google Scholar

5 Colburn, Forrest D., The Vogue of Revolution in Poor Countries (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), p. 6.Google Scholar

6 On “revolutions from above” see Trimberger, Ellen Kay, Revolution from Above: Military Bureaucrats and Development in Japan, Turkey, Egypt, and Peru (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 1978). This excludes most fascist movements.Google Scholar

7 Foran, John, who argues against my thesis, agrees that Zaire/Congo is not a social revolution in “The Future of Revolutions at the fin-de-Siecle”, Third World Quarterly 18 (1997): 803804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

8 Some are problematic because of their lack of violence, others because of the lack of change since 1989. See Tilly, , European Revolutions, pp. 233–36.Google Scholar

9 On social revolutions, see in particular Skocpol, Theda, States and Social Revolutions and Social Revolutions in the Modern World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. I do not, however, exclusively rely on Skocpol's conception of social revolution. My conception includes Huntington's, Samuel two types of revolution—Western and Eastern—in Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968)Google Scholar; Dix's, Robert H. types—Eastern, Western, patrimonial, and Latin American—in “Varieties of RevolutionComparative Politics 15 (1983): 281–94CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Shugart, Matthew Soberg, “Patterns of RevolutionTheory and Society 18 (1989): 249–71CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Foran, John, ed., Theorizing Revolutions (London: Routledge, 1997).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

10 Revolutionary ideologies frequently emerge as the revolution progresses. On the difficulties of using ideology as a guide to the course a revolution takes see Aya, Rod, “Theories of Revolution Reconsidered: Contrasting Models of Collective ViolenceTheory and Society 8 (1979): 46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

11 Like Alexis deTocqueville, I consider the French Revolution to be a social revolution that began as a liberal one. See Old Regime and the French Revolution (New York: Doubleday, 1955), Part One.Google Scholar

12 Gercshenkron, Alexander, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective (Cambridge, MA: Belknap, 1962), pp. 530.Google Scholar

13 Goldstone, Jack A., “Theories of RevolutionWorld Politics 32 (1980):425–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

14 see Brinton, Crane, The Anatomy of Revolution (New York: Norton, 1938).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

15 See Samuel Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies; Johnson, Chalmers, Revolutionary Change, 2nd ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1982)Google Scholar; Tilly, Charles, From Mobilization to Revolution (London: Addison-Wesley, 1978).Google Scholar

16 see Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions; Wolf, Eric, Peasant Wars of the Twentieth Century (New York: Harper and Row, 1969)Google Scholar; Paige, Jeffrey, Agrarian Revolution (New York: Free Press, 1975)Google Scholar. I argue below that there has been a fourth wave, focusing on ideas.

17 Goodwin, Jeff and Skocpol, Theda, “Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary Third WorldPolitical and Society 17 (1989): 489507Google Scholar; Goodwin, Jeff, “State and Revolution in the Third World: A Comparative Analysis” (Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, 1988)Google Scholar; Wickham-Crowley, Timothy P., Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America: A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes Since 1956 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991)Google Scholar; Snyder, Richard, “Explaining Transitions from Neoparrimonial Dictatorships,” Comparative Politics (1992): 379–99Google Scholar; Dix, Robert H., “Why Revolutions Succeed and FailPolity 16 (1983): 423–46CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Farhi, Farideh, “State Disintegration and Urban-based Revolutionary Crisis: A Comparative Analysis of Iran and Nicaragua” Comparative Political Studies (1988): 231–56.Google Scholar

18 Hamerow, Theodore, From the Finland Station: The Graying of Revolution in the Twentieth Century (New York: Basic Books, 1990), p. 5.Google Scholar

19 Goodwin and Skocpol, “Explaining Revolution in the Contemporary Third World” I consider China to have been a colonized or occupied state by Japan before the successful revolution in 1949 and Afghanistan to have been a Soviet client state before the fall of its leader Najibullah and the victory of the Talibans.

20 Goodwin discusses the first three points in “State and Revolution in the Third World” pp.224–39.

21 Ibid., p. 238;

22 Goodwin, and Skocpol, , “Explaining Revolution in the Contemporary Third World” pp. 498501Google Scholar; Wickham-Crowley, , Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America, esp. pp. 59.Google Scholar

23 On neopatrimonialism or “sultanism” also see Eisenstadt, S. N., Revolution and the Transformation of Societies: A Comparative Study of Civilizations (New York: Free Press, 1979).Google Scholar

24 Snyder, , “Explaining Transitions from Neopatrimonial Dictatorships,” p. 384.Google Scholar

25 Dix, , “Why Revolutions Succeed and Fail,” pp. 432–38.Google Scholar

26 Skocpol, , Social Revolutions and the Modern World, p. 313Google Scholar. Skocpol admits that the Iranian Revolution was urban, but perhaps Cuba and Nicaragua should also be seen as “urban revolutions”. See Farhi, “State Disintegration and Urban-based Revolutionary Crisis”.

27 Walt, Stephen M., Revolution and War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996), pp. 3245.Google Scholar

28 Skocpol, , States and Social Revolutions, pp. 1924.Google Scholar

29 Skocpol, Theda, “Social Revolution and Mass Military MobilizationWorld Politics 40 (1988):147–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

30 For the democratic peace theory, see in particular Russett, Bruce, Grasping the Democractic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993).Google Scholar

31 Waltz, Kenneth, “The Emerging Structure of International Politics,” International Security 18 (1993): 4479CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979), p. 216Google Scholar. Also see Mueller, John, The Obsolescence of Major War (New York: Basic Books, 1989)Google Scholar. For a realist account that argues that great power war will continue in international politics, see Mearsheimer, John, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War,” International Security 15 (1990): 556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

32 Katz, Mark, Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves (New York: St. Martin's, 1997).Google Scholar

33 Cerny, Phillip G., “Globalization and the Changing Logic of Collective Action,” International Organization 49 (1995): 595625CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Strange, Susan, The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

34 Desch, Michael C., “War and Strong States, Peace and Weak States,” International Organization 50 (1996): 237–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

35 For a summary of his ideas see Tilly, , European Revolutions, pp. 120.Google Scholar

36 Kuran, Timur, “Sparks and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Revolution”, Public Choice 61 (1989): 4174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

37 Parsa, Misagh, “Economic Development and Political Transformation,” Theory and Society 14 (1985): 623–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

38 Ibid.

39 Downs, Anthony W., An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper and Row, 1957), pp. 114–41.Google Scholar

40 Huntington, Samuel P., Political Order in Changing Societies, pp. 288–90.Google Scholar

41 Robinson, William, Promoting Polyarchy: Globalization, U.S. Intervention, and Hegemony (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

42 Risse-Kappen, Thomas, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back In (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994).Google Scholar

43 Philip G. Cerny, “Globalization and the Changing Logic of Collective Action”; Strange, The Retreat of the State.

44 Evans, Peter, “The Eclipse of the State? Reflections on Stateness in an Era of Globalization,” World Politics 50 (1997): 6287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

45 Greider, William, One World, Ready or Not: The Manic Logic of Global Capitalism (New York: Touchstone Books, 1997), esp. pp. 3556.Google Scholar

46 Tilly, , European Revolutions, pp. 231–32.Google Scholar

47 Colburn, The Vogue of Revolution in Poor Countries; Said Arjomand, Amir, The Turban for the Crown (New York: Oxford University Press, 1986)Google Scholar; Selbin, Eric A., Modern Latin American Revolutions (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993).Google Scholar

48 Arjomand, , The Turban for the Crown, pp. 189210Google Scholar; Calhoun, Craig J., “The Radicalism of Tradition: Community Strength or Venerable Disguise and Borrowed Language?American Journal of Sociology 88 (1983): 888914.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

49 Cobban, Alfred, The Social Interpretation of the French Revolution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1964)Google Scholar; Furet, Francois, Interpreting the French Revolution, trans. Forster, Elborg (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981).Google Scholar

50 Arjomand, , The Turban for the Crown, chap. 10, pp. 189210.Google Scholar

51 Colburn, , The Vogue of Revolution in Poor Countries, pp. 2035Google Scholar; Gouldner, Alvin W., The Future of Intellectuals and the Rise of the New Class (New York: The Seaburg Press, 1979), pp. 5356CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Wickham-Crowley, , Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America, pp. 2325,30–37Google Scholar. Also see Mennheim, Karl, Ideology and Utopia (New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, 1936), pp. 153–64Google Scholar; Hoffer, Eric, The Ordeal of Change (New York, Harper and Row, 1963), pp. 3647Google Scholar. Other writers who emphasize the role of intellectuals include Casta'eda, Jorge, Utopia Unarmed: The Latin America Left after the Cold War (New York: Random, 1993)Google Scholar; Chirot, Daniel, Modern Tyrants: The Power and Prevalence of Evil in Our Age (New York: Free Press, 1994)Google Scholar; Mazlish, Bruce, The Revolutionary Ascetic: Evolution of a Political Type (New York: Basic Books, 1976)Google Scholar; Rejai, Mostafa and Phillips, Kay, World Revolutionary Leaders (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1983).Google Scholar

52 Colburn, , The Vogue of Revolution in Poor Countries, pp. 2035.Google Scholar

53 Wickham-Crowley, Timothly P., “Structural Theories of Revolution,” in Foran, , Theorizing Revolutions, p. 51.Google Scholar

54 Gouldner, , The Future of Intellectuals, p. 55.Google Scholar

55 Ibid., pp. 65–66.

56 Ibid., p. 59.

57 Ibid.

58 Hoffer, , The Ordeal of Change, p. 41.Google Scholar

59 Ibid., p. 42.

60 Ibid., p. 47.

61 Furet, Interpreting the French Revolution, Part One.

62 Ibid.

63 Ibid.;Arjomand, , The Turban for the Crown, pp. 189210Google Scholar; McDaniel, Tim, Autocracy, Modernization, and Revolution in Russia and Iran (Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1991), Pp. 1447.Google Scholar

64 Hamerow, , From the Finland Station, Chap.9.Google Scholar

65 Almond, Gabriel A. and Powell, G. Bingham, Comparative Politics: System, Process, and Policy (Boston: Little, Brown, 1978).Google Scholar

66 Hamerow, , From the Finland Station, p. 353.Google Scholar

67 Rosecrance, Richard, The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World (New York: Basic Books, 1986).Google Scholar

68 Anderson, Lisa, “Absolutism and the Resilience of Monarchy in the Middle EastPolitical Science Quarterly 106 (1991): 116CrossRefGoogle Scholar. If there is one region that is still prone to revolution, it is the Middle East. The brittleness of the communist regimes lends credence to this point that more broad-based authoritarian regimes may not now differ significantly from neopatrimonial regimes.

69 Goldstone, Jack A., Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).Google Scholar

70 Ibid., p. 459.

71 Chirot, Daniel, “After Socialism, What? The Global Implications of the Revolutions in 1989 in Eastern Europe” in Debating Revolutions, ed. Keddie, Nikkie R. (New York: New York University Press, 1995), p. 268.Google Scholar

72 Ibid., p. 267.

73 The Islamic movement in Algeria and other countries in the Middle East probably has less to do with transnationalism and more to do with the failures of “left-wing” dictatorships.

74 Foran, , “The Future of Revolutions” pp. 804807.Google Scholar

75 Foran, John, ed., A Century of Revolution: Social Movements in Iran (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1994).Google Scholar