Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-mp689 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-16T06:25:31.928Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The national-level energy ladder and its carbon implications

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 April 2013

Paul J. Burke*
Affiliation:
Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Tel: +61 2 6125 6566. Fax: +61 2 6125 3700. E-mail: paul.j.burke@anu.edu.au

Abstract

This paper uses data for 134 countries for the period 1960–2010 to document an energy ladder that nations ascend as their economies develop. On average, economic development results in an overall substitution from the use of biomass to energy sourced from fossil fuels, and then increasingly towards nuclear power and certain low-carbon modern renewables such as wind power. The process results in the carbon intensity of energy evolving in an inverse-U manner as per capita incomes increase. Fossil fuel-poor countries climb more quickly to the low-carbon upper rungs of the national-level energy ladder and so typically experience larger reductions in the carbon intensity of energy as they develop. Leapfrogging to low-carbon energy sources on the upper rungs of the national-level energy ladder is one route via which developing countries can reduce the magnitudes of their expected upswings in carbon dioxide emissions.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aitchison, J.A. (1986), The Statistical Analysis of Compositional Data, London: Chapman Hall.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Angrist, J.D. and Krueger, A.B. (2001), ‘Instrumental variables and the search for identification: from supply and demand to natural experiments’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 15: 6985.Google Scholar
Barnes, D.F. and Floor, W. (1999), ‘Biomass energy and the poor in the developing world’, Journal of International Affairs 53: 237259.Google Scholar
Bashmakov, I. (2007), ‘Three laws of energy transition’, Energy Policy 35: 35833594.Google Scholar
BP (2012), Statistical Review of World Energy, London: British Petroleum.Google Scholar
Burke, P.J. (2010), ‘Income, resources, and electricity mix’, Energy Economics 32: 616626.Google Scholar
Burke, P.J. (2012), ‘Climbing the electricity ladder generates carbon Kuznets curve downturns’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 56: 260279.Google Scholar
Development Research Institute (2008), Social Indicators and Fixed Factors, [Available at] http://nyudri.org/resources/global-development-network-growth-database/.Google Scholar
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) (2012), AQUASTAT, [Available at] http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm.Google Scholar
Ferrari, S.L.P. and Cribari-Neto, F. (2004), ‘Beta regression for modelling rates and proportions’, Journal of Applied Statistics 31: 799815.Google Scholar
Grübler, A. (2004), ‘Transitions in energy use’, Encyclopedia of Energy 6: 163177.Google Scholar
Grübler, A. and Nakićenović, N. (1996), ‘Decarbonizing the global energy system’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 53: 97110.Google Scholar
Grübler, A., Nakićenović, N., and Victor, D.G. (1999a), ‘Dynamics of energy technologies and global change’, Energy Policy 27: 247280.Google Scholar
Grübler, A., Nakićenović, N., and Victor, D.G. (1999b), ‘Modelling technological change: implications for the global environment’, Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 24: 545569.Google Scholar
Hadjilambrinos, C. (2000), ‘Understanding technology choice in electricity industries: a comparative study of France and Denmark’, Energy Policy 28: 11111126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heltberg, R. (2004), ‘Fuel switching: evidence from eight developing countries’, Energy Economics 26: 869887.Google Scholar
Heston, A., Summers, R., and Aten, B. (2012), Penn World Table Version 7.1, University of Pennsylvania: Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, [Available at] https://pwt.sas.upenn.edu/.Google Scholar
Honoré, B.E. (1992), ‘Trimmed LAD and least squares estimation of truncated and censored regression models with fixed effects’, Econometrica 60: 533565.Google Scholar
Hosier, R.H. (2004), ‘Energy ladder in developing countries’, Encyclopedia of Energy 2: 423435.Google Scholar
Hosier, R.H. and Dowd, J. (1987), ‘Household fuel choice in Zimbabwe: an empirical test of the energy ladder hypothesis’, Resources and Energy 9: 347361.Google Scholar
IEA (2012a), World Energy Statistics and Balances, Paris: International Energy Agency.Google Scholar
IEA (2012b), CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Statistics, Paris: International Energy Agency.Google Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (1996), IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, [Available at] http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs4.html.Google Scholar
Jotzo, F., Burke, P.J., Wood, P.J., Macintosh, A., and Stern, D.I. (2012), ‘Decomposing the 2010 global carbon dioxide emissions rebound’, Nature Climate Change 2: 213214.Google Scholar
Judson, R.A., Schmalensee, R., and Stoker, T.M. (1999), ‘Economic development and the structure of the demand for commercial energy’, Energy Journal 20: 2957.Google Scholar
Marchetti, C. (1977), ‘Primary energy substitution models: on the interaction between energy and society’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 10: 345356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marchetti, C. (1980), ‘Society as a learning system: discovery, invention, and innovation cycles revisited’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 18: 267282.Google Scholar
Marcotullio, P.J. and Schulz, N.B. (2007), ‘Comparison of energy transitions in the United States and developing and industrializing economies’, World Development 35: 16501683.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Medlock, K.B. III and Soligo, R. (2001), ‘Economic development and end-use energy demand’, Energy Journal 22: 77105.Google Scholar
Mitchell, T.D., Carter, T.R., Jones, P.D., Hulme, M., and New, M. (2004), ‘A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100)’, Working Paper No. 55, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.Google Scholar
Nakićenović, N. (1996a), ‘Decarbonization: doing more with less’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 51: 117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nakićenović, N. (1996b), ‘Freeing energy from carbon’, Daedalus 125: 95112.Google Scholar
Nakićenović, N. and Grübler, A. (2000), ‘Energy and the protection of the atmosphere’, International Journal of Global Energy Issues 13: 457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norman, C.S. (2008), ‘Rule of law and the resource curse: abundance versus intensity’, Environmental and Resource Economics 43: 183207.Google Scholar
Papke, L.E. and Wooldridge, J.M. (1996) ‘Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401(k) plan participation rates’, Journal of Applied Econometrics 11: 619632.Google Scholar
Schäfer, A. (2005), ‘Structural change in energy use’, Energy Policy 33: 429437.Google Scholar
Schipper, L., Ting, M., Khrushch, M., and Golove, W. (1997), ‘The evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in industrialized countries: an end-use analysis’, Energy Policy 25: 651672.Google Scholar
Siebert, L. and Simkin, T. (2002), Volcanoes of the World: An Illustrated Catalog of Holocene Volcanoes and their Eruptions, Global Volcanism Program Digital Information Series, GVP-3, Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution, [Available at] http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/.Google Scholar
Stern, D.I. (2010), ‘Between estimates of the emissions-income elasticity’, Ecological Economics 69: 21732182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tahvonen, O. and Salo, S. (2001), ‘Economic growth and transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy resources’, European Economic Review 45: 13791398.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
US EIA (2012), International Energy Statistics, Washington, DC: Energy Information Administration [Available at] http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm.Google Scholar
World Bank (2012), World Development Indicators, Washington, DC: World Bank [Available at] http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.Google Scholar
World Resources Institute (2010), Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, [Available at] http://wri.org/Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Burke Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download Burke Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 143.6 KB