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ROBUST PERMANENT INCOME AND PRICING WITH FILTERING

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2002

Lars Peter Hansen
Affiliation:
University of Chicago
Thomas J. Sargent
Affiliation:
Stanford University and Hoover Institution
Neng E. Wang
Affiliation:
Stanford University

Abstract

A planner and agent in a permanent-income economy cannot observe part of the state, regard their model as an approximation, and value decision rules that are robust across a set of models. They use robust decision theory to choose allocations. Equilibrium prices reflect the preference for robustness and so embody a “market price of Knightian uncertainty.” We compute market prices of risk and compare them with a model that assumes that the state is fully observed. We use detection error probabilities to constrain a single parameter that governs the taste for robustness.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2002 Cambridge University Press

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