Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-qsmjn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T14:50:04.880Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Global Climate Change, Sustainability, and Some Challenges for Grape and Wine Production*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 June 2016

Hans R. Schultz*
Affiliation:
Geisenheim University, von-Lade-Str. 1, 65366 Geisenheim, Germany; e-mail: Hans.Reiner.Schultz@hs-gm.de

Abstract

Grapevines are cultivated on six out of seven continents, between latitudes 4° and 51° in the Northern Hemisphere and between latitudes 6° and 45° in the Southern Hemisphere across a large diversity of climates (oceanic, warm oceanic, transition temperate, continental, cold continental, Mediterranean, subtropical, attenuated tropical, and arid climates). Accordingly, the range and magnitude of environmental factors differ considerably from region to region and so do the principal environmental constraints for grape production. The type, number, and magnitude of environmental constraints are currently undergoing changes due to shifts in climate patterns already observed for the past and predicted for the future. These changes are already affecting grape composition with observed changes in sugar and acidity concentrations. As with other components such as polyphenols or aroma compounds, their relationships to environmental changes are more difficult to quantify. In general, one can divide the expected climatic changes during the grape-ripening period into two scenarios: warmer and dryer and warmer and moister, with different responses for red and white grape varieties. The production challenges within this broad separation are vastly different, and the strategies to ensure a sustainable product need to be adapted accordingly. The economic impact of these changes is difficult to assess. An in-depth analysis is necessary to construct relevant scenarios and risk analysis for individual regions and to quantify the costs and/or benefits of regional climate developments. (JEL Classifications: Q1, Q54)

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © American Association of Wine Economists 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Special thanks are due to Dr. Helga Hassemer-Schwarz and Andreas Ehlig, formerly of the “Deutsche Wetterdienst”, Geisenheim, for compiling the input files and running the soil mineralization model.

References

Adams, R.M., Wu, J., and Houston, L.L. (2003). The effects of climate change on yields and water use of major California crops. In Climate Change and California. Sacramento, CA: California Energy Commission. Appendix IX.Google Scholar
Alston, J.M., Fuller, K.B., Lapsley, J.T., and Soleas, G. (2011). Too much of a good thing? Causes and consequences of increases in sugar content of California wine grapes. Journal of Wine Economics, 6(2), 135159.Google Scholar
Ashenfelter, O., and Storchmann, K. (2010). Using hedonic models of solar radiation to assess the economic effect of climate change: The case of Mosel Valley vineyards. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(2), 333349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashenfelter, O., and Storchmann, K. (2016). Climate change and wine: A review of the economic implications. Journal of Wine Economics, 11(1), 105138.Google Scholar
Avrahami, S., and Bohannan, B.J.M. (2009). N2O emission rates in a California meadow soil are influenced by fertilizer level, soil moisture and the community structure of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria. Global Change Biology, 15(3), 643655.Google Scholar
Bindi, M., Fibbi, L., Gozzini, B., Orlandini, S., and Miglietta, F. (1995). Experiments on the effects of increased temperature and/or elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide on crops. Mini free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments on grapevine. In Harrison, P.A., Butterfield, R.E., and Downing, T.E. (Eds.), Climate Change and Agriculture in Europe: Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations. Research Report No. 9. Oxford: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, 125137.Google Scholar
Bindi, M., Fibbi, L., Lanini, M., and Miglietta, F. (2001). Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.): I. Development and testing of the system for CO2 enrichment. European Journal of Agronomy, 14(2), 135143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bindi, M., Fibbi, L., and Miglietta, F. (2001). Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.): II. Growth and quality of grape and wine in response to elevated CO2 concentrations. European Journal of Agronomy, 14(2), 145155.Google Scholar
Bock, A., Sparks, T.H., Estrella, N., and Menzel, A. (2013). Climate-induced changes in grapevine yield and must sugar content in Franconia (Germany) between 1805 and 2010. PLoS ONE, 8(7), e69015. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0069015.Google Scholar
Böhme, M., and Böttcher, F. (2011). Bodentemperaturen im Klimawandel: Auswertungen der Messreihe der Säkularstation Potsdam. Klimastatusbericht des Deutschen Wetterdienstes, 8590.Google Scholar
Bormann, H. (2011). Sensitivity analysis of 18 different potential evapotranspiration models to observed climatic change at German climate stations. Climatic Change, 104, 729753.Google Scholar
Carlisle, E., Smart, D., Williams, L.E., and Summer, M. (2010). California Vineyard Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Assessment of the Available Literature and Determination of Research Needs. San Francisco, CA: California Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance.Google Scholar
Carlisle, E.A., Steenwerth, K.L., and Smart, D.R. (2006). Effects of land use on soil respiration: Conversion of oak woodlands to vineyards. Journal of Environmental Quality, 35(4), 13961404.Google Scholar
Chapagain, A., and Orr, S. (2008). UK Water Footprint: The Impact of the UK's Food and Fibre Consumption on Global Water Resources. Vol. 1. Godalming, UK: World Wildlife Fund.Google Scholar
Corneo, P.E., Pellegrini, A., Cappellin, L., Gessler, C., and Pertot, I. (2014). Moderate warming in microcosm experiment does not affect microbial communities in temperate vineyard soils. Microbial Ecology, 67(3), 659670.Google Scholar
Dalal, R.C., Wang, W., Robertson, G.P., and Parton, W.J. (2003). Nitrous oxide emission from Australian agricultural lands and mitigation options: A review. Australian Journal of Soil Research, 41(2), 165195.Google Scholar
DeLucia, E.H., Casteel, C.L., Nabity, P.D., and O'Neill, B.F. (2008). Insects take a bigger bite out of plants in a warmer, higher carbon dioxide world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(6), 17811782.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duchêne, E., and Schneider, C. (2005). Grapevine and climatic changes: A glance at the situation in Alsace. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 25(1), 9399.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunn, G.M. (2005). Factors that control flower formation in grapevines. In de Garis, K., Dundon, C., Johnstone, R., and Partridge, S. (Eds.), Transforming Flowers to Fruit: Proceedings of a Seminar Held in Mildura, Victoria, 29 July 2005. Adelaide, South Australia, Australia: Australian Society for Viticulture and Oenology, 1118.Google Scholar
Feldmann, H., Schädler, G., Panitz, H.-J., and Kottmeier, C. (2013). Near future changes of extreme precipitation over complex terrain in Central Europe derived from high resolution RCM ensemble simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 33(8), 19641977.Google Scholar
Feng, G.-Q., Li, Y., and Cheng, Z.-M. (2014). Plant molecular and genomic responses to stresses in projected future CO2 environment. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences, 33(2–3), 238249.Google Scholar
Ferrise, R., Trombi, G., Moriondo, M., and Bindi, M. (2016). Climate change and grapevines: A simulation study for the Mediterranean basin. Journal of Wine Economics, 11(1), 88–104.Google Scholar
Gambetta, G. (2016). Water stress and grape physiology in the context of global climate change. Journal of Wine Economics, 11(1), 168–180.Google Scholar
Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, I. (2006). Adaptation du modèle STICS à la vigne (Vitis vinifera L.): Utilisation dans le cadre d'une étude d'impact du changement climatique à l’échelle de la France. PhD dissertation, ENSA Montpellier, Montpellier, France.Google Scholar
Garrett, K.A., Dendy, S.P., Frank, E.E., Rouse, M.N., and Travers, S.E. (2006). Climate change effects on plant disease: genomes to ecosystems. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 44, 489509.Google Scholar
Gonçalves, B., Falco, V., Moutinho-Pereira, J., Bacelar, E., Peixoto, F., and Correia, C. (2009). Effects of elevated CO2 on grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.): Volatile composition, phenolic content, and in vitro antioxidant activity of red wine. Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry, 57(1), 265273.Google Scholar
Hale, C.R., and Buttrose, M.S. (1974). Effect of temperature on ontogeny of berries of Vitis vinifera L. cv. Cabernet Sauvignon. Journal of the American Society of Horticultural Science, 99(5), 390394.Google Scholar
Hannah, L., Roehrdanz, P.R., Ikegami, M., Shepard, A.V., Shaw, M.R., Tabor, G., Zhi, L., Marquet, P.A., and Hijmans, R.J. (2013). Climate change, wine, and conservation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(17), 69076912.Google Scholar
Hayman, P.T., McCarthy, M.G., Soar, C.J., and Sadras, V.O. (2009). Addressing the tension between the challenge of climate change and the adaptive capacity of the wine grape industry. In Sadras, V.O., Soar, C.J., Hayman, P.T., and McCarthy, M.G. (Eds.), Managing Grapevines in Variable Climates: The Impact of Temperature. Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia: South Australian Research and Development Institute, 186206.Google Scholar
Herath, I., Green, S., Singh, R., Horne, D., van der Zijpp, S., and Clothier, B. (2013). Water footprinting of agricultural products: A hydrological assessment for the water footprint of New Zealand's wines. Journal of Cleaner Production, 41, 232243.Google Scholar
Hoekstra, A.Y., and Chapagain, A.K. (2008). Globalization of Water: Sharing the Planet's Freshwater Resources. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Hofmann, M., Lux, R., and Schultz, H.R. (2014). Constructing a framework for risk analyses of climate change effects on the water budget of differently sloped vineyards with a numeric simulation using the Monte Carlo method coupled to a water balance model. Frontiers in Plant Science, 5, 645. doi:10.3389/fpls.2014.00645.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hoppmann, D. (2010). Terroir: Wetter, Klima, Boden. Stuttgart, Germany: Ulmer.Google Scholar
Huglin, P. (1978). Nouveau mode d'evaluation des possibilités héliothermiques d'un milieu viticole. Comptes Rendus de l'Académie d'Agriculture de France, 64(13), 11171126.Google Scholar
Iland, P., Dry, P., Proffitt, T., and Tyerman, S. (2011). The Grapevine: From the Science to the Practice of Growing Vines for Wine. Adelaide: Patrick Iland Wine Promotions.Google Scholar
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jones, G.V. (2006). Climate and terroir: Impact of climate variability and change on wine. In Macqueen, R.W., and Meinert, L.D. (Eds.), Fine Wine and Terroir: The Geoscience Perspective. Geoscience Canada Reprint Series No. 9. St. John's, Newfoundland: Geological Association of Canada, 114.Google Scholar
Jones, G.V. (2007). Climate change: Observations, projections, and general implications for viticulture and wine production. Economics Department Work Paper No 7. Walla Walla, WA: Whitman College.Google Scholar
Jones, G.V., Duchene, E., Tomasi, D., Yuste, J., Braslavska, O., Schultz, H., Martinez, C., et al. (2005b). Changes in European winegrape phenology and relationships with climate. In Proceedings XIV GESCO Symposium, Geisenheim, Germany, Vol. 1, 55–61.Google Scholar
Jones, G.V., White, W.A., Cooper, O.R., and Storchmann, K. (2005a). Climate change and global wine quality. Climate Change, 73(3), 319343.Google Scholar
Kenny, G.J., and Harrison, P.A. (1992). The effects of climate variability and change on grape suitability in Europe. Journal of Wine Research, 3(3), 163183.Google Scholar
Kliewer, W.M., and Torres, R.E. (1972). Effect of controlled day and night temperatures on grape coloration. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture, 23(2), 7177.Google Scholar
Krysanova, V., Buiteveld, H., Haase, D., Hattermann, F.F., van Niekerk, K., Roest, K., Martinez-Santos, P., and Schlüter, M. (2008). Practices and lessons learned in coping with climatic hazards at the river-basin scale: Floods and drought. Ecology and Society, 13(2), 32.Google Scholar
Lamastra, L., Suciu, N.A., Novelli, E., and Trevisan, M. (2014). A new approach to assessing the water footprint of wine: An Italian case study. Science of the Total Environment, 490, 748756.Google Scholar
Lobell, D.B., Cahill, K.N., and Field, C.B. (2007). Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields. Climatic Change, 81, 187203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Long, S.P., Ainsworth, E.A., Rogers, A., and Ort, D.R. (2004). Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide: Plants FACE the future. Annual Review of Plant Biology, 55, 591628.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Marais, J., van Wyk, C.J., and Rapp, A. (1992). Effect of sunlight and shade on norisoprenoid levels in maturing Weisser Riesling and Chenin blanc grapes and Weisser Riesling wines. South African Journal of Enology and Viticulture, 13(1), 2331.Google Scholar
Moriondo, M., Jones, G.V., Bois, B., Dibari, C., Ferrise, R., Trombi, G., and Bindi, M. (2013). Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change. Climatic Change, 119, 825839.Google Scholar
Nemani, R.R., White, M.A., Cayan, D.R., Jones, G.V., Running, S.W., Coughlan, J.C., and Peterson, D.L. (2001). Asymmetric warming over coastal California and its impact on the premium wine industry. Climate Research, 19, 2534.Google Scholar
Orlowsky, B., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., and Werner, P.C. (2008). A resampling scheme for regional climate simulations and its performance compared to a dynamical RCM. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 92(3), 209223.Google Scholar
Petrie, P.R., and Sadras, V.O. (2008). Advancement of grapevine maturity in Australia between 1993 and 2006: Putative causes, magnitude of trends and viticultural consequences. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 14(1), 3345.Google Scholar
Peyrot des Gachons, C., Van Leeuwen, C., Tominaga, T., Soyer, J.-P., Gaudillère, J.-P., and Dubourdieu, D. (2005). Influence of water and nitrogen deficit on fruit ripening and aroma potential of Vitis vinifera L. cv Sauvignon blanc in field conditions. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 85(1), 7385.Google Scholar
Pillet, J., Egert, A., Pieri, P., Lecourieux, F., Kappel, C., Charon, J., Gomès, E., Keller, F., Delrot, S., and Lecourieux, D. (2012). VvGOLS1 and VvHsfA2 are involved in the heat stress responses of grapevine berries. Plant and Cell Physiology, 53(10), 17761792.Google Scholar
Pirie, A.J.G., and Mullins, M.G. (1980). Concentration of phenolics in the skin of grape berries during fruit development and ripening. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture, 31(1), 3436.Google Scholar
Roehrdanz, P.R., and Hannah, L. (2016). Climate change, California wine, and wildlife habitat. Journal of Wine Economics, 11(1), 69–87.Google Scholar
Sadras, V.O., Moran, M.A., and Bonada, M. (2013). Effects of elevated temperature in grapevine. I. Berry sensory traits. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 19(1), 95106.Google Scholar
Sadras, V.O., Schultz, H.R., Girona, J., and Marsal, J. (2012). Grapevine. In Steduto, P., Hsiao, T.C., Fereres, E., and Raes, D. (Eds.), Crop Yield Response to Water. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 66. Rome, Italy: FAO, 460485.Google Scholar
Sadras, V.O., and Soar, C.J. (2009). Shiraz vines maintain yield in response to a 2–4 °C increase in maximum temperature using an open-top heating system at key phenostages. European Journal of Agronomy, 31(4), 250258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sadras, V.O., Stevens, R.M., Pech, J.M., Taylor, E.J., Nicholas, P.R., and McCarthy, M.G. (2007). Quantifying phenotypic plasticity of berry traits using an allometric-type approach: A case study on anthocyanins and sugars in berries of Cabernet Sauvignon. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 13, 7280.Google Scholar
Salazar-Parra, C., Aguirreolea, J., Sánchez-Díaz, M., Irigoyen, J.J., and Morales, F. (2010). Effects of climate change scenarios on Tempranillo grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) ripening: Response to a combination of elevated CO2 and temperature, and moderate drought. Plant and Soil, 337, 179191.Google Scholar
Salazar-Parra, C., Aguirreolea, J., Sánchez-Díaz, M., Irigoyen, J.J., and Morales, F. (2012a). Climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature and moderate drought) triggers the antioxidant enzymes’ response of grapevine cv. Tempranillo, avoiding oxidative damage. Physiologia Plantarum, 144(2), 99110.Google Scholar
Salazar-Parra, C., Aguirreolea, J., Sánchez-Díaz, M., Irigoyen, J.J., and Morales, F. (2012b). Photosynthetic response of Tempranillo grapevine to climate change scenarios. Annals of Applied Biology, 161(3), 277292.Google Scholar
Santos, J.A., Malheiro, A.C., Pinto, J.G., and Jones, G.V. (2012). Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in Europe: Observed trends and atmospheric forcing. Climate Research, 51(1), 89103.Google Scholar
Schaller, L., Jagoutz, H., Berthold, G., Emde, K., Lohnertz, O., and Hoppmann, D. (1994a). Bewirtschaftungssystem und Nitratbildung in Rebflächen. Teil 1: Grundlage für die Erarbeitung eines Simulationsmodells. Geisenheimer Berichte, Band 16a. Geisenheim, Germany: Ges. zur Förderung der Forschungsanst. Geisenheim.Google Scholar
Schaller, L., Jagoutz, H., Berthold, G., Emde, K., Lohnertz, O., and Hoppmann, D. (1994b). Bewirtschaftungssystem und Nitratbildung in Rebflächen. Teil 2: Parameterschätzung und Umsetzung zu einem Düngeberatungsmodell. Geisenheimer Berichte, Band 16b. Geisenheim, Germany: Ges. zur Förderung der Forschungsanst. Geisenheim.Google Scholar
Schultz, H.R. (2000). Climate change and viticulture: A European perspective on climatology, carbon dioxide and UV-B effects. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 6(1), 212.Google Scholar
Schultz, H.R., and Hofmann, M. (2015). The ups and downs of environmental impact on grapevines: Future challenges in temperate viticulture. In Géros, H., Chaves, M.M., Medrano Gil, H., and Delrot, S. (Eds.), Grapevine in a Changing Environment: A Molecular and Ecophysiological Perspective. Chichester, UK: Wiley, 1837.Google Scholar
Schultz, H.R., and Jones, G.V. (2010). Climate induced historic and future changes in Viticulture. Journal of Wine Research, 21(2–3), 137145.Google Scholar
Schüttler, A., Gruber, B., Thibon, C., Lafontaine, M., Stoll, M., Schultz, H., Rauhut, D., and Darriet, P. (2011). Influence of environmental stress on secondary metabolite composition of Vitis vinifera var. Riesling grapes in cool climate region – water status and sun exposure. In Proceedings of the Oenologie 2011, 9e Symposium International d'Oenologie, Bordeaux, France, 65–70.Google Scholar
Steenwerth, K., and Belina, K.M. (2008). Cover crops and cultivation: Impacts on soil N dynamics and microbiological function in a Mediterranean vineyard agroecosystem. Applied Soil Ecology, 40(2), 370380.Google Scholar
Stott, P.A., Jones, G.S., and Mitchell, J.F.B. (2003). Do models underestimate the solar contribution to recent climate change? Journal of Climate, 16, 40794093.Google Scholar
Tonietto, J., and Carbonneau, A. (2004). A multicriteria climatic classification system for grape-growing regions worldwide. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology, 124(1–2), 8197.Google Scholar
Travers, S.E., Smith, M.D., Bai, J., Hulbert, S.H., Leach, J.E., Schnable, P.S., Knapp, A.K., et al. (2007). Ecological genomics: Making the leap from model systems in the lab to native populations in the field. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 5(1), 1924.Google Scholar
Urhausen, S., Brienen, S., Kapala, A., and Simmer, C. (2011). Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region. Climatic Change, 109(3), 349373.Google Scholar
van Leeuwen, C., Pieri, P., and Vivin, P. (2010). Comparison of three operational tools for the assessment of vine water status: Stem water potential, carbon isotope discrimination measured on grape sugar and water balance. In Delrot, S., Medrano, H., Or, E., Bavaresco, L., and Grando, S. (Eds.), Methodologies and Results in Grapevine Research. Berlin: Springer, 87106.Google Scholar
van Leeuwen, C., Schultz, H.R., Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I., Duchêne, E., Ollat, N., Pieri, P., Bois, B., et al. (2013). Why climate change will not dramatically decrease viticultural suitability in main wine-producing areas by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America PNAS, 110(3), E3051E3052. doi:10.1073/pnas.1307927110.Google Scholar
van Leeuwen, C., and Darriet, P. (2016). Impact of climate change on viticulture and wine quality. Journal of Wine Economics, 11(1), 150167.Google Scholar
Webb, L.B., Whetton, P.H., and Barlow, E.W.R. (2007). Modelled impact of future climate change on the phenology of grapevines in Australia. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 13(3), 165175.Google Scholar
Webb, L.B., Whetton, P.H., Bhend, J., Darbyshire, R., Briggs, P.R., and Barlow, E.W.R. (2012). Earlier wine-grape ripening driven by climatic warming and drying and management practices. Nature Climate Change, 2, 259264.Google Scholar
White, M.A., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Jones, G.V., Pal, J.S., and Giorgi, F. (2006). Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(30), 1121711222.Google Scholar
Williams, L.E., and Matthews, M.A. (1990). Grapevine. In Stewart, B.A., and Nielsen, D.R. (Eds.), Irrigation of Agricultural Crops. Agronomy Monograph No. 30. Madison, WI : American Society of Agronomy, 10191055.Google Scholar
Winter, E., Lowe, S., and Bulleid, N. (2007). Bunchzone temperature monitoring throughout ripening and grape and wine quality of Shiraz in NE Victoria. Australian Viticulture, 11, 4853.Google Scholar
Wolfe, D.W., Schwartz, M.D., Lakso, A.N., Otsuki, Y., Pool, R.M., and Shaulis, N.J. (2005). Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA. International Journal of Biometeorology, 49(5), 303309.Google Scholar