Abstract
Climate change due to a doubling of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its possible impacts on the hydrological cycle are a matter of growing concern. Hydrologists are specifically interested in an assessment of the impacts on the occurrence and magnitude of runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture and their temporal and spatial redistribution. Such impacts become all the more important as they may also affect the water availability in the storage reservoirs. This paper examines the regional effects of climate change on various components of the hydrologic cycle viz., surface runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration for three drainage basins of central India. Plausible hypothetical scenarios of precipitation and temperature changes are used as input in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. The influences of climate change on flood, drought, and agriculture are highlighted. The response of hypothetical reservoirs in these drainage basins to climate variations has also been studied. Results indicate that the basin located in a comparatively drier region is more sensitive to climatic changes. The high probability of a significant effect of climate change on reservoir storage, especially for drier scenarios, necessitates the need of a further, more critical analysis of these effects.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bultot, F., Dupriez, G. L., and Gellens, D.: 1988, ‘Estimated Annual Regime of Energy Balance Components, Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture for a Drainage Basin in the Case of a CO2 Doubling’, Clim. Change 12, 39.
Cohen, S. J.: 1986, ‘Impacts of Streamflow: A Simulation’, J. Hydrol. 67, 273–280.
CWC: 1982, ‘Identification of Drought Prone Areas’, Central Water Commission, March 1982.
CWC: 1993, ‘Reassessment of Water Resources Potential of River Basins of India’, Central Water Commission, March 1993.
Divya and Mehrotra, R.: 1995, ‘Climate Change and Hydrology with Emphasis on the Indian Subcontinent’, Hydrol. Sci. J. 40(2), 231–242.
Doorenbos, J. and Pruitt, W. O.: 1977, Crop Water Requirement, FAO, Rome.
Gleick, P. H.: 1986, ‘Methods for Evaluating the Regional Hydrologic Impacts of Global Climatic Changes’, J. Hydrol. 88, 97.
Gleick, P. H.: 1987, ‘The Development and Testing of a Water Balance Model for Climate Impact Assessment: Modeling the Sacramento Basin’, Water Resour. Res. 23, 1049.
Gupta, N. L. and Shukla, L. (ed.): 1994, Water Environment in India, Printwell, Jaipur, India.
Idso, S. B. and Brazel, A. J.: 1984, ‘Rising Atmospheric Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide May Increase Streamflow’, Nature 312, 51–53.
IPCC: 1995, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, WMO/UNEP (eds.), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
Jain, S. K., Storm, B., Bathurst, J. C., Refsgaard, J. C., and Singh, R. D.: 1992, ‘Application of the SHE to Catchments in India — Part 2: Field Experiments and Simulation Studies with the SHE on the Kolar Subcatchment of the Narmada River’, J. Hydrol. 140, 25–47.
Klemes, V.: 1980, ‘Aspirations and Realities’, in Proc. Canadian Climate Program Water Workshop, Edmonton, Alberta.
Klemes, V.: 1985, ‘Effect of Hypothetical Climatic Change on Reliability of Water Supply from Reservoirs’, in Klemes, V. (ed.), WMO, WCP-98.
Lal, M. and Chander, S.: 1993, ‘Potential Impacts of Greenhouse Warming on the Water Resources of the Indian Subcontinent’, JEH 1(3), 3–13.
Mehrotra, R. and Divya: 1994a, ‘Effect of Climate Change on Runoff: A Case Study’, in TROPMET — 94, National Symposium on Climate Variability, Pune, February 8–11, 1994.
Mehrotra, R. and Divya: 1994b, ‘Response of an Indian Catchment to Expected Climate Change Due To Global Warming’, Technical Report (Case Study), National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, CS/AR-129, p. 65.
Mimikov, M., Kouvopoulos, Y., Cavadias, G., and Nayianos, N.: 1991, ‘Regional Hydrological Effects of Climate Change’, J. Hydrol. 123, 119.
National Water Policy: 1987, Government of India, Ministry of Water Resources, New Delhi.
Nemec, J. and Schaake, J.: 1982, ‘Sensitivity of Water Resource Systems to Climate Variation’, Hydrol. Sci. J. 27(3), 327.
Rao, K. N., George, C. J., and Ramasastri, K. S.: 1972, ‘Agroclimatic Classification of India’, India Meteorological Department, Met. Monograph Agrimet. No. 4/1972.
Rashtriya Barh Ayog-Report: 1980, ‘National Flood Commission’, Govt. of India — Ministry of Energy and Irrigation, New Delhi.
Refsgaard, J. C., Seth, S. M., Bathurst, J. C., Erlich, M., and Storm, B.: 1992, ‘Application of the SHE to Catchments in India, Part 1: General Results’, J. Hydrol. 140, 1–23.
Robock, A., Turco, R. P., Harwell, M. A., Ackerman, T. P., Andressen, R., Chang, H. S., and Sivakumar, M. V. K.: 1993, ‘Use of General Circulation Model Output in the Creation of Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Analysis’, Clim. Change 23, 293–335.
Rosenbrock, H. H.: 1960, ‘An Automatic Method for Finding the Greatest or Least Value of a Function’, Computer J. 3, 175.
Schaake, J. S. Jr. and Kaczmarek, Z.: 1979, ‘Climate Variability and the Design and Operation of Water Resource Systems’, in Proc. World Climate Conference, WMO, Geneva, pp. 290–312.
Schneider, S. H., Gleick, P. H., and Mearns L. O.: 1990, ‘Prospects for Climate Change’, in Waggoner, P. E. (ed.), Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, Wiley, New York.
Srivastava, H. N.: 1992, ‘Decadal Trends in Climate over India’, Mausam 43(1), 70.
Thapliyal, V. and Kulshreshtha, S. M.: 1991, ‘Climate Changes and Trends over India’, Mausam 42(4), 333.
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: 1979, Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment, Nat. Acad. Sci., Washington, D.C.
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: 1983, Changing Climate, Nat. Acad. Sci., National Acad. Press, Washington, D.C.
Waggoner, P. E. (ed).: 1990, Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, Wiley, New York, p. 496.
WMO: 1986, ‘Intercomparison of Models of Snowmelt Runoff’, Operational Hydrol. Rep., No. 23, WMO, No. 646.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mehrotra, R. Sensitivity of Runoff, Soil Moisture and Reservoir Design to Climate Change in Central Indian River Basins. Climatic Change 42, 725–757 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005496932343
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005496932343