Skip to main content
Log in

Slope Instability Zonation: a Comparison Between Certainty Factor and Fuzzy Dempster–Shafer Approaches

  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper presents a comparison between two methodologies for the evaluation of slope instability and the production of instability maps, using a probabilistic approach and a hybrid possibilistic and credibilistic approach. The first is the Certainty Factor method, and the second is based on Fuzzy Logic integrated with the Dempster–Shafer theory. These methodologies are applied to the 1 : 50,000 scale Fabriano (Marche, Italy) geological map sheet. The results are represented as histograms where the accuracy of the prediction is shown, and the comparison of the results of the methods is discussed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Binaghi E. and Rampini A.: 1993, Fuzzy decision making in the classification of multisource remote sensing data, Optical Eng. 32, 1193‐1203.

    Google Scholar 

  • Binaghi, E., Brivio, P. A., Ghezzi, P., Rampini, A., and Zilioli, E.: 1996, A Hybrid Approach to Soft Land Cover Mapping, in E. Binaghi, P. A. Brivio, A. Rampini, and R. Schowengerdt, (eds), Non Conventional Pattern Analysis in Remote Sensing, Pattern Recognition Lett. 17, 1399‐1410.

  • Brabb, E. E. Pompeyan, E. H., and Bonilla, M. G.: 1972, Landslide susceptibility in San Mateo County, California, US Geological Survey Miscellaneus Field Studies Map, MF-360, scale 1:62.500.

  • Brundsen, D. Doornkamp, J. C., Fookes, P. G., Jones, D. K. C., and Kelly, J. M. H.: 1975, Large scale geomorphological mapping and highway engineering design, Quart. J. Eng. Geol. 8, 227‐253.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burrough, P. A.: 1986, Principle of Geographical Information Systems for Land Resources Assessment, Clarendon Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carrara, A.: 1983, Multivariate models for landslides hazard evaluation, Mathl. Geol. 15(3), 403‐427.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carrara, A.: 1988, Landslide hazard mapping by statistical methods. A 'black box' approach, Workshop on Natural Disaster in European Mediterranean Countries, Perugia, Italy, pp. 205‐224.

  • Carrara, A.: 1992, Landslide hazard assessment, Proc. 1st Simposio Internacional sobre sensores Remotos Y Sistema de informacion geografica (SIG) para el estudio de Riesgos Naturales, Bogota', Colombia, pp. 329‐355.

  • Carrara, A., Cardinali, M., Detti, R., Guzzetti, F., Pasqui, V., and Reichenbach, P.: 1990, Geographic information systems and multivariate models in landslide hazard evaluation, Alps 90 Alpine landslide practical seminar, 6th Int. Conf. and field Workshop on Landslides. Aug. 31‐Sept 12, 1990, Milano, Italy, pp. 17‐28.

  • Carrara, A., Cardinali, M., Detti, R., Guzzetti, F., Pasqui, V., and Reichenbach, P.: 1991, Gis techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 16(5), 427‐455.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carrara, A., Catalano, E., Sorriso Valvo, M., Reali, C., and Osso, I.: 1978, Digital terrain analysis for land evaluation, Geologia Applicata ed Idrogeologia, 13, 69‐127.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carrara, A., Pugliese Carratelli, E., and Merenda, L.: 1977, Computer based data bank and and statistical analysis of slope stability phenomena, Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie N. F. 21(2), 187‐222.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chung, C. F. and Fabbri, A. G.: 1993, The representation of geoscience information for data integration, Non-renewable Resources 2(2), 122‐139.

    Google Scholar 

  • Congalton, R. G.: 1991, A review of Assessing the accuracy of classification of remotely sensed data, Remote Sens. Environ. 37, 35‐46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corominas, J., Baeza, C., and Saluena, I.: 1992, The influence of geometrical slope characteristics and land use on the developement of shallow landslides, Proc. 6th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Christchurch, New Zeland, 2, 919‐924.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gonzalez, A. J.: 1992, Avalanche risk evaluation at Utica, Colombia, Proc. 1er Simposio Internacional sobre sensores Remotos Y Sistema de informacion geografica (SIG) para el estudio de Riesgos Naturales, Bogota, Colombia, pp. 356‐378.

  • Heckerman: 1986, Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN's certainty factors. In L. N. Kanal and J. F. Lemmer (eds), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, New York, Elsevier, pp. 298‐311.

    Google Scholar 

  • ILWIS: 1993, ILWIS 1.4: User's Manual, International Institute for Aerospace survey and Earth Sciences (ITC). Enschede, The Netherlands, August 1993.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ives, J. D. and Messerli, B.: 1981, Mountain hazard mapping in Nepal. Introduction to an applied mountain research project, Mountain Research and Developement 1(3‐4), 223‐230.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lessing, P., Messina, C. P., and Fonner, R. F.: 1983, Landslide risk assessment, Environmental geology, 5(2), 92‐99.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lucini, P.: 1973, The potential landslide forecasting of the 'Argille Varicolori Scagliose' complex, IGM 174 IV SE Map, Savignano di Puglia (Campania). Geologia Applicata e Idrogeologia, VIII.

  • Luzi, L. and Pergalani, F.: 1995a, Applications of statistical and GIS techniques to slope instability zonation and influence on lifelines. Seismology and Earhquake Engineering (SEE ‐ 2), Tehran.

  • Luzi, L. and Pergalani, F.: 1995b, Slope instability zonation and influence on lifelines vulnerability by application of a GIS, Fifth International Conference on Seismic Zonation, Nizza.

  • Luzi L. and Pergalani F.: 1996, A methodology for slope instability zonation using a probabilistic method, 6th Spanish Congress and International Conference on Environmental Geology and Land-Use Planning, Granada, Spagna.

  • Malgot, J. and Mahr, T.: 1979, Engineering geological mapping of the West Carpathian landslide areas, Bull. Int. Ass. Eng. Geolo. 19, 116‐121.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neuland, H.: 1976, A prediction model for landslips, Catena 3, 215‐230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pedrycz, W.: 1990, Fuzzy sets in pattern recognition: Methodology and methods, Pattern Recognition 23, 121‐146.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabto, M.: 1991, Probabilistic Modelling Applied to Landslides in Central Colombia using Gis Procedures, Unpublished MSc thesis, ITC, Enschede, The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shafer, G.: 1976, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence, N. J.: Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shortliffe, E. H. and Buchanan, G. G.: 1975, A model of inexact reasoning in medicine, Math. Biosci. 23, 351‐379.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smets, P.: 1988, Belief functions, in P. Smets, E. H. Mamdani, D. Dubois, and H. Prade (eds), Non-Standard Logics for Automated Reasoning, Academic Press, London, pp. 253‐277.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNESCO: 1973‐1979, Annual Summary of Information on Natural Disasters, 1971‐75. Paris, Unesco.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varnes, D. J.: 1984, Hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice, Commission of Landslides of IAEG, UNESCO, Natural Hazards 3, 61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yager R. and Filev, D. P.: 1990, Including probabilistic uncertainty in fuzzy logic controller modeling Using Dempster-Shafer Theory, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cyber 25, 1221‐1230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yen, J.: 1990, Generalizing the Dempster‐Shafer theory to fuzzy sets, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cyber 20, 559‐570.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin, K. L. and Yan, T. Z.: 1988, Statistical prediction model for slope instability of metamorphosed rocks, Proc. 5th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Lausanne, Switzerland, 2, 1269‐1272.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zadeh, L. A.: 1977, Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility, Fuzzy Sets Systems 1, 3‐28.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zadeh L. A.: 1987, The concept of linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning, in R. R. Yager, S. Ovchinnikov, R. M. Tong, and H. T. Nguyen (eds), Fuzzy Sets and Applications, Wiley, New York, pp. 293‐329.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Binaghi, E., Luzi, L., Madella, P. et al. Slope Instability Zonation: a Comparison Between Certainty Factor and Fuzzy Dempster–Shafer Approaches. Natural Hazards 17, 77–97 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008001724538

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008001724538

Navigation