Abstract
Concerns over the prospects of explosive demographic growth led to concerted efforts to engineer fertility reductions in the developing world, while skeptics argued that economic development was the best way to hasten fertility decline. Now that fertility declines have occurred in many countries can either side claim victory? Or was demographic pressure simply self-regulated by links between mortality and fertility changes? Using country-level data and a methodology inspired by a series of seminal articles by Preston, I assess the impact of economic change on both fertility and mortality and the independent effect of mortality on fertility between the 1960s and the 1990s. Aggregating country-level estimates into six regional population projections from 1950 to 2000, I translate these impacts on demographic variables into population size impacts. Although economic development accounted poorly for either mortality or fertility changes, the prevailing population growth was not that different from the growth predicted had economic development alone influenced demographic trends. The main reason appears to be an association between mortality and fertility levels that offset the initial effects of mortality declines outpacing economic growth. Together, the effect of economic change on both mortality and fertility declines and the effect of mortality on fertility predicted reasonably well actual population size in year 2000, suggesting only a modest influence of any additional factor.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alter, G. (1992). Theories of fertility decline: A non-specialist's guide to the current debate, pp. 13–35 in J. R. Gillis, L. A. Tilly& D. Levine (eds.), The European experience of declining fertility, 1850-1970: The quiet revolution. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.
Bairoch, P. (1992). Du tiers-monde aux tiers-mondes: Convergence et clivages, Population 47(6): 1485–1504.
Banister, J. (1987). China's changing population. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Berelson B., Anderson, R., Harkavy, O., Maier, J., Mauldin, W. P.& Segal, S. (1966). Family planning and population programs: A review of world development. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Bogue, D. J.& Tsui, A. O. (1978). Declining world fertility: Trends, causes, implications, Population Bulletin 33(4). Washington: Population Reference Bureau.
Bogue, D. J.& Tsui, A. O. (1979). A reply to Paul Demeny's ‘On the end of the population explosion', Population and Development Review 5(3): 479–494.
Bongaarts, J. (1994). The impact of population policies: Comment, Population and Development Review 20(3): 616–620.
Bongaarts, J. (1995). The role of family planning programs in contemporary fertility transitions, Working Papers, No. 71. New York: The Population Council.
Bongaarts J., Mauldin, W. P.& Philips, J. F.. (1990). The demographic impact of family planning programs, Studies in Family Planning 21(6): 299–310.
Bongaarts, J.& Watkins, S. C. (1996). Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions, Population and Development Review 22(4): 639–682.
Bonneuil, N. (1997). Transformations of the French demographic landscape, 1806-1906. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Caldwell, J. (1997). The global fertility transition: The need for a unifying theory, Population and Development Review 23(4): 803–812.
Cannan, E. (1895). The probability of a cessation of the growth of population in England and Wales during the next century, The Economic Journal 5: 505–515.
Cleland, J.& Wilson, C. (1987). Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view, Population Studies 41(1): 5–30.
Cohen, B.& Montgomery, M. R. (1998). Introduction, pp. 1–38, in M. R. Montgomery& B. Cohen (1998).
Crenshaw, E. M., Ameen, A. Z.& Christenson, M. (1997). Population dynamics and economic development: Age-specific population growth rates and economic growth rates in developing countries, 1965 to 1990, American Sociological Review 62(6): 974–984.
Davis, K. (1948). Human society. New York: Macmillian.
Davis, K. (1956). The amazing decline of mortality in underdeveloped areas, American Economic Review 46(2): 305–318.
Davis, K. (1963). The theory of change and response in modern demographic history, Population Index 29(4): 345–366.
Demeny, P. (1979a). On the end of the population explosion, Population and Development Review 5(1): 141–162.
Demeny, P. (1979b). On the end of the population explosion: A rejoinder, Population and Development Review 5(3): 495–504.
Demeny, P. (1988). Social science and population policy, Population and Development Review 18(3): 451–47.
Durand, J. (1958). World population trend and prospect, pp. 27–37, in P. M. Hauser (ed.), Population and World Politics. The Free Press of Glencoe.
Ehrlich, P. (1968). The population bomb. New York: Ballantine Books.
Feeney, G.& Feng, W. (1993). Parity progression and birth intervals in China: The influence of policy in hastening fertility decline, Population and Development Review 19(1): 61–101.
Galloway, P. R., Lee, R. D.& Hammel, E. A. (1998). Infant mortality and the fertility transition, pp. 182–226, in M. R. Montgomery & B. Cohen (1998).
Greiling, W. (1954). Wie werden wir Leben? Ein Buch von den Aufgaben unserer Zeit. Düsseldorf: Econ-Verlag.
Guo, S. (1996). Determinants of fertility decline in Shanghai: Development or policy?, pp. 81–96, in A. Goldstein & W. Feng (eds.), China: The many facets of demographic change. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Heuveline, P. (1999). The global and regional impact of mortality and fertility transitions, 1950-2000, Population and Development Review 25(4): 681–702.
Hirschman, C. (1994). Why fertility changes, Annual Review of Sociology 20: 203–233.
Hodgson, D. (1983). Demography as social science and policy science, Population and Development Review 9(1): 1–34.
Hodgson, D. (1988). Orthodoxy and revisionism in American demography, Population and Development Review 14(4): 541–569.
Hodgson, D. (1991). The ideological origins of the Population Association of America, Population and Development Review 17(1): 1–34.
Hodgson, D.& Watkins, S. C. (1997). Feminists and neo-Malthusians: Past and present alliances, Population and Development Review 23(3): 469–523.
Keyfitz, N. (1968). Introduction to the mathematics of population. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Keilman, N. (1998). How accurate are the United Nations world population projections? pp. 15–41, in W. Lutz, J. W. Vaupel& D. A. Ahlburg (eds.), Frontiers of population forecasting, A supplement to Population and Development Review, vol. 24. New York: Population Council.
Kuate Defo, B. (1998). Fertility response to infant and child mortality in Africa with special reference to Cameroun, pp.254-315, in M. R. Montgomery & B. Cohen (1998).
Landry, A. (1934). La révolution démographique: études et essais sur les problèmes de la population. Paris: Librairie du Recueil Sirey.
Lavely, W.& Freedman, R. (1990). The origins of the Chinese fertility decline, Demography 27(3): 357–367.
Lutz, W.& Scherbov, S. (1992). Sensitivity of aggregate period life expectancy to different averaging procedures, Population Bulletin of the United Nations 33: 32–46.
Mason, K. O. (1997). Explaining fertility transitions, Demography 34(4): 443–454.
Montgomery, M. R.& Cohen, B. (eds.). (1998). From death to birth: Mortality decline and reproductive change. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population-the long view, in Theodore W. Schultz (ed.), Food for the world. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Palloni, A. (1990). Fertility and mortality decline in Latin America, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences 510: 126–144.
Potts, M. (1997). Sex and the birth rate: Human biology, demographic change, and access to fertility-regulation methods, Population and Development Review 23(1): 1–39.
Preston, S. H. (1975). The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development, Population Studies 29(2): 231–48.
Preston, S. H. (ed.). (1978). The effects of infant and child mortality on fertility. New York: Academic Press.
Preston, S. H. (1980). Causes and consequences of mortality declines in less developed countries during the twentieth century, pp. 289–329, in R. A. Easterlin (ed.), Population and economic change in developing countries. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Preston, S. H. (1985). Mortality and development revisited, Population Bulletin of the United Nations 18: 34–40.
Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P.& Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: measuring and modeling population processes. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers.
Pritchett, L. H. (1994). Desired fertility and the impact of population policies, Population and Development Review 20(1): 1–55.
Raftery, A. E., Lewis, S. M.& Aghajanian, A. (1995). Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital decline, Demography 32(2): 159–182.
Shryock, H. S.& Siegel, J. S. (1975). The methods and materials of demography. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office.
Stolnitz, G. J. (1955). A century of international mortality trends: I, Population Studies 9(1): 24–55.
Summers, R.& Heston, A. (1991). The Penn world table (Mark 5): An expanded set of international comparisons, 1950-1988, Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2): 327–368.
Szreter, S. (1993). The idea of demographic transition and the study of fertility change: A critical intellectual history, Population and Development Review 19(4): 659–701.
Szreter, S.& Garrett, E. (2000). Reproduction, compositional demography, and economic growth: Family planning in England long before the fertility decline, Population and Development Review 26(1): 45–80.
Thompson, W. S. (1929). Population, American Journal of Sociology 34: 959–975.
Tsui A. O., Hermalin, A I., Bertrand, J. T., Knowles, J., Stover, J.& Stewart, K. J. (1993). Evaluating family planning program impact: Needed initiatives on a persisting question, Evaluation Project Working Papers WP-O–08.
United Nations (1958). The future growth of world population, Population Studies No.28. New York: United Nations.
United Nations (1999). World population prospects: The (1998) revision. New York: United Nations.
Whelpton, P. K. (1928). Population of the United States, 1925-1975, The American Journal of Sociology 31: 253–270.
Whelpton, P. K. (1936). An empirical method for calculating future population, Journal of the American Statistical Association 31: 457–473.
Whyte, M. K.& Parish, W. L. (1984). Urban life in contemporary China. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Wilson, C.& Airey, P. (1999). How can a homeostatic perspective enhance demographic transition theory, Population Studies 53(2): 117–128.
Wilmoth, J. R.& Ball, P. (1992). The population debate in American popular magazines, 1946-1990, Population and Development Review 18(2): 631–668.
Woytinsky, W. S. (1958). World resources in relation to population, pp. 46–75, in Philip M. Hauser(ed.), Population and World Politics. The Free Press of Glencoe.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Heuveline, P. Demographic pressure, economic development, and social engineering: An assessment of fertility declines in the second half of the twentieth century. Population Research and Policy Review 20, 365–396 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013339124837
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013339124837