Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Irrigation Requirements: A Global Perspective

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change does not only affect water resources but also water demand. Future water and food security will depend, among other factors, on the impact of climate change on water demand for irrigation. Using a recently developed global irrigation model, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, we present the first global analysis of the impact of climate change and climate variability on irrigation water requirements. We compute how long-term average irrigation requirements might change under the climatic conditions of the 2020s and the 2070s, as provided by two climate models, and relate these changes to the variations in irrigation requirements caused by long-term and interannual climate variability in the 20th century. Two-thirds of the global area equipped for irrigation in 1995 will possibly suffer from increased water requirements, and on up to half of the total area (depending on the measure of variability), the negative impact of climate change is more significant than that of climate variability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adams, R. M., Rosenzweig, C., Peart, R. M., Ritchie, J. T., McCarl, B. A., Glyer, J. D., Curry, R. B., Jones, J.W., Boote, K. J., and Allen, L. H.: 1990, 'Global Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture', Nature 345, 219-224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., and Rösch, T.: 2000, World Water in 2025 — Global Modeling and Scenario Analysis for the World Commission on Water for the 21st Century, Kassel World Water Series Report 2, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (can be downloaded from http://www.usf.uni-kassel.de/usf/archiv/dokumente.en.htm).

    Google Scholar 

  • Allen, R. G., Gichuki, F. N., and Rosenzweig, C.: 1991, 'CO2-Induced Climatic Changes in Irrigation-Water Requirements', J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 117, 157-178.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnell, N. W.: 1999, 'The Effect of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in Europe: A Continental Perspective', Global Environ. Change 9, 5-23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Alcamo, J.: 1999, 'Computation of Global Water Availability and Water Use at the Scale of Large Drainage Basins', Mathematische Geologie 4, 111-118.

    Google Scholar 

  • Döll, P. and Siebert, S.: 2000, 'A Digital Global Map of Irrigated Areas', Int. Commission Irrigation Drainage J. 49, 55-66.

    Google Scholar 

  • Döll, P. and Siebert, S.: 2001, 'Global Modeling of Irrigation Water Requirements', Water Resour. Res., accepted.

  • FAO: 1995, Digital Soil Map of the World and Derived Soil Properties, CD-ROM Version 3.5, FAO, Rome.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geng, S., Penning, F. W. T., and Supit, I.: 1986, 'A Simple Method for Generating Daily Rainfall Data', Agric. For. Meteorol. 36, 363-376.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: 2000, 'The Simulation of SST, Sea Ice Extents and Ocean Heat Transports in a Version of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model without Flux Adjustments', Clim. Dyn. 16, 147-168.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 2001, Third Assessment Report, Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report (can be downloaded from http://www.ipcc.ch/).

  • IRRI (International Rice Research Institute): 1988, World Rice Statistics 1987, IRRI, Manila (http://www.riceweb.org/).

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones, R. N.: 2000, 'Exceeding the Risk of Climate Change Using an Irrigation Demand Model', Clim. Res. 14, 89-100.

    Google Scholar 

  • Legates, D. R. and Willmott, C. J.: 1990, 'Mean Seasonal and Spatial Variability in Gauge-Corrected, Global Precipitation', Int. J. Clim. 10, 111-117.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leggett, J., Pepper, W. J., and Swart, R. J.: 1992, 'Emission Scenarios for the IPCC: An Update', in IPCC, Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCabe, G. J. and Wolock, D. M.: 1992, 'Sensitivity of Irrigation Demand in a Humid-Temperate Region to Hypothetical Climatic Change', Water Resour. Bull. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc. 28, 535-543.

    Google Scholar 

  • New, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P. D.: 2000, 'Representing Twentieth Century Space-Time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901-96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate', J. Climate 13, 2217-2238.

    Google Scholar 

  • Priestley, C. and Taylor, R.: 1972, 'On the Assessment of Surface Heat Flux and Evaporation Using Large Scale Parameters', Mon. Wea. Rev. 100, 81-92.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramirez, J. A. and Finnerty, B.: 1996, 'CO2 and Temperature Effects on Evapo-transpiration and Irrigated Agriculture', J. Irrigation Drainage Engineering — ASCE 122, 155-163.

    Google Scholar 

  • Röckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M., Dümenil, L., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: 1996, The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM-4: Model Description and Simulation of Present Day Climate, MPI-Report No. 218, MPI für Meteorologie, Hamburg.

    Google Scholar 

  • Seckler, D., Amarasinghe, U., Molden, D., de Silva, R., and Barker, R.: 1997, Word Water Demand and Supply 1990 to 2025: Scenarios and Issues, Research Report 19, International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiklomanov, I. A. (ed.): 1997, 'Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World: Assessment of Water Resources and Water Availability in the World', World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shuttleworth, W. J.: 1993, 'Evaporation', in Maidment, D. R. (ed.), Handbook of Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, pp. 4.1-4.53.

  • Smith, M.: 1992, CROPWAT — A Computer Program for Irrigation Planning and Management, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 46, Rome.

  • Solley, W. B., Pierce, R. S., and Perlman, H. A.: 1998, Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 1995, USGS Circular 1200 (http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/pdf1995/html/).

  • Yates, D. N. and Strzepek, K. M.: 1996, 'Modeling Economy-Wide Climate Change Impacts on Egypt: A Case for an Integrated Approach', Environ. Model. Assess. 1, 119-135.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, D-34109, Kassel, Germany

    Petra Döll

Authors
  1. Petra Döll
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Döll, P. Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Irrigation Requirements: A Global Perspective. Climatic Change 54, 269–293 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016124032231

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016124032231

Keywords

Search

Navigation