Abstract
The evaluation of the impact of climatic change on deltaic coastal systems requires establishing a ‘reference situation’. As deltaic coastal zones are highly dynamic areas, it is necessary to define the reference situation as a function of their present evolutive stage. This implies characterizing coastal processes as a complex system defined by the links between driving or forcing terms and the coastal response at different temporal and spatial scales (‘long/large’, ‘medium’ and ‘episodic’ scales). Starting from classical previous works on deltaic systems and including all available field and conceptual knowledge to properly consider present conditions (largely regulated rivers, subsidence, etc.) a detailed methodology to analyse forcing or driving agents at the three mentioned scales is presented. This methodology which developed the general approach presented in a companion paper, will be followed by a future paper focusing on the analysis of the coastal response.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ackers, P. and White, W. R.: 1973, ‘Sediment Transport: New Approach and Analysis’, J. Hydraulic Div., ASCE, 99, HY11, pp. 2041-2060.
Barnett, T. P.: 1990, ‘Low-Frequency Changes in Sea Level and their Possible Causes’, in LeMehaute, B. and Hanes, D. (eds.), Ocean Engineering Science, (The Sea, V. 10), Wiley-Interscience, New York, pp. 841-867.
Carter, D. J. T. and Draper, L.: 1988, ‘Has the North-East Atlantic Become Rougher?’, Nature 332, 494.
CERC: 1984, Shore Protection Manual, US Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg.
Coleman, J. M. and Wright, L. D.: 1973, ‘Variability of Modern River Deltas’, Gulf Coast Assoc. Geol. Soc. Trans. 23, 33-36.
Coleman, J. M. and Wright, L. D.: 1975, ‘Modern River Deltas: Variability of Process and Sand Bodies’, in Broussard, M. L. (ed.), Deltas, Models for Exploration, Houston Geological Society, Houston, pp. 99-149.
Davies, J. L.: 1964, ‘A Morphogenic Approach to World Shorelines’, Z. Geomorph. 8, 27-42.
Delft Hydraulics: 1993, Sea Level Rise. A Global Vulnerability Assessment, 2nd Revised Edition, The Netherlands.
De Vriend, H. J.: 1991, ‘Mathematical Modelling and Large Scale Coastal Behaviour, Part II: Predictive Models’, J. Hydraulic Res. 29(6), 741-753.
De Vriend, H. J., Capobianco, M., Chescher, T., De Swart, H. E., Latteux, B., and Stive, M. J. F.: 1994, ‘Long-Term Modelling of Coastal Morphology’, Coast. Eng. 21, 225-269.
Emery, K. O. and Aubrey, D. G.: 1991, Sea Levels, Land Levels and Tide Gauges, Springer-Verlag, New-York, p. 237.
Emery, K. O., Aubrey, D., and Goldsmith, V.: 1988, ‘Coastal Neo-Tectonics of the Mediterranean from Tide-Gauge Records’, Mar. Geol. 81, 41-52.
Foreman, M. G. G.: 1977, Manual for Tidal Heights Analysis and Prediction, Pacific Marine Science Report 77-10, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Patricia Bay, Victoria, B.C., p. 97.
Galloway, W.E.: 1975, ‘Process Framework for Describing the Morphologic and Stratigraphic Evolution of Delatic Depositional Systems’, in Broussard, M. L. (ed.), Deltas, Models for Exploration, Houston Geological Society, Houston, pp. 87-98.
Goda, Y.: 1988, ‘On the Methodology of Selecting Design Wave Height’, in Proc. 21st Coastal Eng. Conf., ASCE, pp. 899-913.
Gringorten, I. I.: 1963, ‘A Plotting Rule for Extreme Probability Paper’, J. Geophys. Res. 68(3), 813-814.
Guedes Soares, C.: 1986a, ‘Assessment of the Uncertainty in Visual Observations of Wave Height’, Ocean Eng. 13(1), 37-56.
Guedes Soares, C.: 1986b, ‘Calibration of Visual Observations of Wave Period’, Ocean Eng. 13(6), 539-547.
Guillén, J., Díaz, J. I., and Palanques, A.: 1992, ‘Cuantificación y Evolución Durante el Siglo XX de los Aportes de Sedimento Transportado como Carga de Fondo por el Río Ebro al Medio Marino’, Rev. Soc. Geol. Esp. 5, 27-37.
Gumbell, E. J.: 1958, Statistics of Extremes, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.
Hoozemans, F. M. J.: 1990, ‘Long Term Changes in Wind and Wave Climate on the Northern Sea’, in Proc. 22nd Coastal Eng. Conf., ASCE, pp. 1888-1894.
Jiménez, J. A., García, M. A., and Sánchez-Arcilla, A.: 1990, Análisis y Propuesta de Soluciones para Estabilizar el Delta del Ebro. Estimación del Transporte de Sedimentos en el Ebro. Contribución a la Evolución Costera, Technical Report LT-2/7, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, p. 25.
Jiménez, J. A. and Sánchez-Arcilla, A.: 1993, ‘Medium-Term Coastal Response at the Ebro Delta, Spain’, Mar. Geol. 114, 105-118.
Katz, R. W. and Brown, B. G.: 1989, ‘Climate Change for Extreme Events: An Application of the Theory of Extreme Values’, Preprints, 11th Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, American Meteorological Society, Boston, pp. 10-15.
Katz, R. W. and Brown, B. G.: 1992, ‘Extreme Events in Changing Climate: Variability is More Important than Averages’, Clim. Change 21(3), 289-302.
Lee, A. C. and Osborne, R. H.: 1995, ‘Relative Fluxes of Sand for Southern California Beaches: Fourier Grain-Shape Analysis’, Shore & Beach 63(3), 9-19.
Mathiesen, M., Goda, Y., Hawkes, P. J., Mansard, E., Martín, M. J., Peltier, E., Thompson, E. F., and van Vledder, G.: 1994, ‘Recommended Practice for Extreme Wave Analysis’, J. Hydraulic Res. 32(6), 803-814.
Mitosek, H. T.: 1995, ‘Climate Variability and Change within the Discharge Time Series: A Statistical Approach’, Clim. Change 29(1), 101-116.
Morhange, C.: 1994, La mobilité récente des Littoraux Provençaux: Éléments d'Analyse Géomorphologique, Thèse de 3ème cycle, Université de Provence, Aix-en-Provence.
Nakato, T.: 1990, ‘Tests of Selected Sediment-Transport Formulas’, J. Hydraulic Eng. 116(3), 362-379.
Pirazzoli, P. A.: 1991, World Atlas of Holocene Sea-Level Changes, Elsevier, Amsterdam, p. 300.
Pugh, D. T.: 1987, Tides, Surges and Mean Sea-Level, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, p. 472.
Sánchez-Arcilla, A. and Lemos, C.: 1992, Surf-Zone Hydrodynamics, Pineridge Press, Barcelona, p. 310.
Sánchez-Arcilla, A. and Jiménez, J. A.: 1994, ‘Breaching in a Wave-Dominated Barrier Spit: The Trabucador Bar (Northeastern Spanish Coast)’, Earth Surf. Proc. Landf. 19, 483-498.
Sánchez-Arcilla, A. and Jiménez, J. A.: 1997, ‘Physical Impacts of Climatic Change on Deltaic Coastal Systems (I): An Approach’, Clim. Change 35, 71-93 (this issue).
Sánchez-Arcilla, A., Stive, M. J. F., Jiménez, J. A., and García, M. A. 1993: ‘Impact of Sea Level Rise in a Mediterranean Delta: The Ebro Delta Case’, in Sea Level Changes and their Consequences for Hydrology and Water Management, Seachange '93, UNESCO IHP-IV, IV pp. 53-62.
Suanez, S.: 1995, ‘Estimation de la Remontée Relative du Niveau Marin et des Mouvements du Sol dans le Delta du Rhône à Partir des Enregistrements Maregraphiques’, Meeting on Impact of RSLR in the European Coast, Aix-en-Provence (also submitted to Compte Rendu de l'Académie des Sciences de Paris).
Suhayda, J. N.: 1987, ‘Subsidence and Sea Level’, in Turner, R. E., and Cahoon, D. R. (eds.), Causes of Wetlands Loss in the Coastal Central Gulf of Mexico. Volume II: Technical Narrative, OCS Study/MMS 87-0120, Minerals Management Service, New Orleans, pp. 187-202.
Stanley, D. 1988:, ‘Subsidence in the Northeastern Nile Delta: Rapid Rates, Possible Causes, and Consequences’, Science 240, 497-500.
Valk, C. F. de: 1994, A Model of the Probability Distribution of Bivariate Storms Extremes Implemented to Compute Simple Risks Estimates, Report H2131, Delft Hydraulics.
van Rijn, L. C.: 1984a, ‘Sediment Transport, Part I: Bed Load Transport’, J. Hydraulic Eng. 110(10), 1431-1456.
van Rijn, L. C.: 1984b, ‘Sediment Transport, Part II: Suspended Load Transport’, J. Hydraulic Eng. 110(11), 1613-1641.
van Rijn, L. C.: 1993, Principles of Sediment Transport in River, Estuaries and Coastal Seas, Aqua Pub., Amsterdam, p. 654 and annexes.
Varela, J. M., Gallardo, A., and López de Velasco, A.: 1986, ‘Retención de Sólidos por los Embalses de Mequinenza y Ribarroja. Efectos Sobre los Aportes al Delta del Ebro’, in Mariño, M. G. (ed.), Sistema Integrado del Ebro: Cuenca, Delta y Medio Marino, Hermes, Madrid, pp. 203-219.
Wigley, T. M. L. and Raper, S. C. B.: 1993, ‘Future Changes in Global Mean Temperature and Sea Level’, in Warrick, R. A., Barrow, E. M., and Wigley, T. M. (eds.), Climate and Sea Level Change. Observations, Projections and Implications, Cambridge University Press, pp. 111-133.
Wright, L. D.: 1985, ‘River Deltas’, in Davies, R. A. (ed.), Coastal Sedimentary Environments, Springer Verlag, pp. 1-76.
Wright, L. D.: 1987, ‘Shelf-Surfzone Coupling: Diabathic Shoreface Transport’, in Coastal Sediments '87, ASCE, pp. 25-40.
Wright, L. D. and Coleman, J. M.: 1973, ‘Variations in Morphology of Major River Deltas as Functions of Ocean Wave and River Discharge Regimes’, AAPG Bull. 57(2), 370-398.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
JIMÉNEZ, J.A., SÁNCHEZ-ARCILLA, A. PHYSICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON DELTAIC COASTAL SYSTEMS (II): DRIVING TERMS. Climatic Change 35, 95–118 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005319515943
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005319515943